Andrew Goldberg said the 10-year Treasury yield tracks nominal GDP over time, and with nominal growth around 6% to 6.5% the arithmetic points to a yield near 5% rather than the 4.90% the market was treating as a shock.
The alarmed reading of the day was that rising yields are breaking something. Both strategists called it a return to a normal relationship — and then said the part that is genuinely abnormal is how many borrowers are now competing for the same capital.
"Nominal GDP is like six, 6.5%. That would call for something like a 5% treasury yield. So it is normalization."
Goldberg is Chief Investment Strategist at Nomura; Cameron Dawson is Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, and reads the yield move off the charts rather than the narrative.
I listened to the full segment so you can skip it.
Here are the 4 calls that matter.
👤 Guests: Andrew Goldberg, Chief Investment Strategist at Nomura, and Cameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth
🎙️ Hosts: CNBC's Closing Bell Overtime anchors, Melissa Lee and Michael Santoli
📰 Published: 10 September 2026 on CNBC's Closing Bell Overtime
🟣 Apple Podcasts | 🔗 Episode page | ⏱️ 4 min
Key Takeaways
Nominal GDP near 6-6.5% is consistent with a 10-year Treasury near 5%, which makes this a normalization rather than a shock
What is not normal is the competition for capital, with hyperscalers issuing debt while Japanese and UK yields sit at 30-year highs
Dawson's point is that the 40-year bull market in bonds ended in 2022 and yields are now in a clear uptrend
Her colleague's read of the charts: if these were stocks, you would be a buyer
The de-rating has already happened — the multiple is down from about 23 to 20 since real rates began moving last October
1. Yields Track Nominal GDP
The desk brought the two strategists back after Oracle's results crossed, and asked whether the rise in yields is the normalization the show's bond reporter had described.
Goldberg agreed and gave the mechanism. "Rick nailed it. If you look historically the ten year treasury yield tends to kind of track nominal GDP which makes total sense." His reasoning: if growth is strong, a lender has better uses for the money than locking it up
The arithmetic is the whole argument. "Nominal GDP is like six, 6.5%. That would call for something like a 5% treasury yield. So it is normalization."
He was explicit that orderly is not the same as harmless. He said what is happening seems pretty orderly and is still concerning, that the market could fall a little bit further, "But this isn't like some comet out of the blue"
2. Competition For Capital
The second half of Goldberg's answer was about who is bidding for money.
He named the abnormal part. "The other thing that's not so normal though, is there's just intense competition for capital." His first example was the hyperscalers raising money for the AI build-out
The second was the two largest foreign holders of US government debt. "Japan and the UK are the two biggest holders of U.S. Treasuries foreign holders. And both of them are seeing yields that are at 30 year highs." His point is that domestic bonds yielding more at home competes directly with Treasuries for those buyers
His conclusion was that the pieces are connected rather than random. In his words, it is all interconnected and makes sense if you think about it
3. The 40-Year Bond Bull Ended
The anchor put the objection to Dawson: yields may be normal historically, but a 10-year Treasury going from under 1% to 4.90% in a few years is not the same as 5% on the way down from 8% in the late 1990s.
Dawson's answer was that the 2000 comparison flatters the present. "yes, they've moved back up to 2000 levels, but 2000 weren't necessarily normal. They were well below the yields we saw in the 90s, well below the yields we saw in the 80s."
The level is not what she watches. "We think the actual more important thing is that yields aren't in a downtrend anymore. And the bull market in bonds over the last 40 years ended in 2022, when we broke into a new uptrend."
She said the direction has consequences for what stocks are worth and potentially for credit spreads — the extra yield investors demand to lend to companies rather than the government
On the technical picture, she quoted a colleague. "John Roque has been saying if these were stocks you'd be a buyer because these are pretty bullish charts."
4. Multiples From 23 To 20
The anchor's follow-up was that the AI build-out depends on financing, so higher yields could end the equity rally as well as reprice bonds.
Dawson said the repricing has already been happening. "So if you look since last October, when the real rate move began in earnest, since that same time, October last year, the multiples down from like 23 to 20." She attributed a large part of that to the largest technology stocks
She framed it as a search for a new level rather than a break. Her expectation is something like yields at 5% or a little above, with equities finding where they settle against that
The problem she flagged for companies is the next refinancing. "Companies are going to have to figure out a way to refinance their cheaper debt."
Their shared bottom line is that yields at 5% are the new reference point rather than an accident, and that stocks have been quietly repricing against it for nearly a year.
Bonus Insights
The segment sat between two market reports the desk had just run. Pippa Stevens reported West Texas Intermediate joining Brent above $100 as the fighting escalated and the expected end of the war kept moving out, heating oil futures topping $5 for the first time since 2022, distillate stockpiles still 13% below the five-year average, New England heating-oil inventories at a record low weeks before the heating season, and GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan putting the cost to consumers at an extra $700 million a day, or nearly $5 billion a week
Asked what analysts make of China's role, Stevens reframed the vocabulary of the oil market. The old question was who the swing producer is; the current one is the swing consumer, and that is China — back buying after working down its own inventories and losing access to discounted Russian and Iranian barrels. She added that rising Chinese fuel-product exports could pull refined prices down even while crude rises
Seema Mody's read of the Oracle print framed the panel's question: a large beat on the adjusted quarter but full-year guidance only $0.03 above expectations, with the stock back to roughly where it opened the previous morning near $165, and one overhang — the equity offering — possibly cleared
Goldberg's one concession to tail risk was a joke. He allowed that his orderly-normalization case holds "Unless AI kills us all the human beings," which the anchor called the asterisk on everything they say
If this was worth your time, send it to someone who has to have a view on this.
Get the latest market chatter as it happens: