https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4REQ4x3dQo
Anna Andreeva, who covers consumer stocks for Piper Sandler, tells the firm's own markets podcast that the aggregate "resilient consumer" line hides a shopper who has become choosy to the point of promiscuity, and works through who is winning that fight in footwear, apparel and beauty. Michael Kantrowitz takes her through pricing power, distribution discipline and what companies are doing with their tariff refunds; a second host asks what to buy to look cool in front of their kid.
👤 Guest: Anna Andreeva, managing director at Piper Sandler
🎙️ Host: Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler
📰 Published: 30 August 2026
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Key Takeaways
Resilient is fair in aggregate, and underneath it the consumer is extremely finicky
"The word promiscuous consumer certainly comes to mind."
Purchases get delayed unless the shopper sees something genuinely new
The low end is not trading down — the split is between stuff and experiences
Management teams keep reporting the low-end consumer as fine, not amazing, with no significant trade-down
Work-from-home days are falling fast and the entire wardrobe is changing with them
Yoga wear and sneakers give way to wear-to-work and dressier footwear
Nobody's pie is growing, so it is a knife fight for share
"I don't see necessarily the whole pie growing."
Premium brands have hit a ceiling on price, and Lululemon shows what breaking it costs
Too much newness for too long, and the scarcity value goes with it
Starving your own distribution is what keeps a brand off the sale rack
Amer Sports is entering Dick's and Foot Locker slowly and holding Salomon at full price
Online-only is not a strategy: Revolve is opening its own stores
Returns make e-commerce alone expensive as well as small
Tariffs were a perfect storm, and the refunds are going to debt paydown and buybacks, not to prices
Burlington, in the off-price space she does not cover, was the exception she named
Beauty is the durable category, and prestige got better this past quarter
A high single-digit grower, on her figure, with health and wellness feeding it
Korean beauty is already mainstream in Asia and Europe, and Chinese brands reach the US this fall
Resilient Is Fair, But the Consumer Underneath It Is Extremely Finicky
Kantrowitz opened by noting that the market keeps hearing the consumer is strong, or resilient, and that this is an aggregate comment that does not reflect what is happening under the surface. Andreeva, coming out of earnings season, said the state of the consumer had drawn more questions than usual both on public calls and in follow-ups with management teams.
"And I would say, yes, using the word resilient, that's fair, but extremely finicky." The aggregate is right; the behavior underneath it is not what the word implies "The word promiscuous consumer certainly comes to mind." Shoppers are getting choosier about what they buy and holding off purchases more than they did historically
The sneaker market is the clearest casualty: "We cover a lot of athletic companies, and the sneaker space certainly has been pretty toxic." Not much innovation in the category, and promotional pressure starting to pick up across the industry
Purchases get delayed "unless he or she sees something amazing"
Innovation is what opens the wallet, and where it is missing, "we're just passing on"
Bifurcation Is Front and Center, and the Low End Is Not Trading Down
Asked whether the driver is experiences, or low-end versus high-end, or a broader change in the consumer landscape, Andreeva said it is the last of those — "bifurcation theme is really front and center".
The team asks every management team how the low end is doing and whether they are seeing trade-down. The answer keeps coming back the same: "Low-end is fine, not amazing, but not really seeing any significant trade down."
The problem is sameness rather than weakness — "there's a lot of sameness across the industry athletic cycle" After the pandemic surge in everything athletic, the move away from yoga wear and sneakers started in apparel about a year ago and is only now catching up in footwear A lot of these business models are shifting as a result
The high end is fine as well, though she flagged the savings rate as something to think about
Where the money goes instead is experiences and travel, especially in an inflationary backdrop — "There's just not a lot of wallet left for discretionary and that's primarily what we cover."
Work-From-Home Days Are Falling, and the Whole Uniform Changes With Them
A second host asked where the high-end consumer is choosing to spend now, several years past COVID, against five years ago.
The silhouette is changing toward wear-to-work and dressy apparel, and dressier apparel pulls footwear along with it
"The number of days work from home, that's declining pretty rapidly." The team had looked at that data shortly before the interview
She does not cover the European luxury companies but pays attention to them; at the high end, accessories and jewelry are proving resilient, and experiences count as part of the same shift
Consumers are choosing travel over "your everyday purchases of stuff you don't really need"
Beauty is the emotional category, and it is working. Health, wellness and self-care are feeding the demand, and prestige beauty improved this past quarter for the industry overall — "It's a high single-digit grower in prestige."
The lipstick effect, in her own example: "There is such a thing as a lipstick effect, right? Like, for instance, I'm not going to pay for a Chanel bag right now, but I will for a lipstick." Buying the small thing is a way to participate in the brand, and she sees it among middle-income and lower-income shoppers as well
Nobody's Pie Is Growing, So It Is a Knife Fight for Share
Kantrowitz asked a two-part question: whether these shifts are a market-share story or real profitable growth, and which companies are doing what she describes.
"I don't see necessarily the whole pie growing. I think it's more about knife fights, if you will, within respective spaces." Everyone is relatively strapped by inflationary pressure, so gains have to be taken from somebody else
In beauty, Estée Lauder. The team has been impressed with what it is doing across its portfolio of brands after several years of heavy lifting to clean up distribution; its China problems are behind it, and it is levered to the prestige category
In footwear, the problem is that everything looks the same. Silhouettes are similar across a crowded marketplace with little innovation, and the two companies executing well are not getting much benefit of the doubt on valuation On Running, which her team has a buy on, has innovated better than most, sits at a more premium price point and controls its distribution smartly — "because for a premium brand, you do not want to be everywhere by any means" Amer Sports, an interesting multi-brand portfolio, holds Salomon — "which in footwear space that's a hot brand right now" — plus Arc'teryx at the premium outdoor and outerwear end, and Wilson
Both she and Kantrowitz are tennis fans, and on Wilson she was blunt: "Wilson is crushing it right now"
The message she drew from all of it: differentiation, control of your own destiny on distribution, and not over-distributing the brand, all of which matter more in a difficult backdrop
Premium Brands Have a Ceiling on Price, and Lululemon Is the Playbook Not to Follow
Kantrowitz said there is a lot of sticker shock when people go to the mall or shop online, and asked whether premium brands can keep raising prices or are about as high as they can get in this environment. He also confessed to doing "a little bit of damage at the store the other day buying some tennis whites".
There is definitely a limit: "You can't just raise for the sake of raising. You really have to deliver differentiation and a special assortment to justify that price."
Alongside price, staying out of the distribution channels that are wrong for you becomes more and more important
Lululemon is her example of a brand that gave up its premium position. It used to be extremely coveted, and it overextended the life cycle of some of its assortment "Bringing out too much newness is not necessarily a great thing. You got to stick to the message of scarcity value." She added that arguably the business has not been marketed particularly well "And a playbook in our view not to follow."
Starving Your Own Distribution Is How a Brand Stays at Full Price
Asked who is doing the right thing on brand integrity and scarcity, Andreeva went back to Amer Sports, which she identified by its ticker, AS.
There are only very few Salomon stores in the US, and the brand is entering wholesale accounts such as Dick's and Foot Locker very carefully
"In fact, I would say they're starving their distribution and just controlling these allocations like they should be."
The payoff is a brand that does not go on sale: the customer still chooses it at full price even when it is sitting next to other brands on the same floor
It is a difficult dynamic to hold — "you have to be super disciplined as a management team to not deviate and stay on that full price path"
Online Alone Is Not Enough, and Revolve Is Opening Stores
Kantrowitz asked whether the online-versus-brick-and-mortar question feeds into the belt-tightening consumer and the luxury brands, since that landscape has ebbed and flowed over the last couple of years.
"Online alone is just not sufficient if you really want to bring scale and touch this customer in different ways."
Online-only also makes returns pretty challenging and can be extremely costly for a company
Revolve is the live example. The online retailer, which plays in discretionary apparel and accessories, will open a handful of its own stores and she thinks will keep moving down that path — an e-commerce-only competitor starting to play in a brick-and-mortar world
Nike's decision a couple of years ago to go direct-to-consumer and its own stores at the expense of wholesale is her example of what not to do
Real estate mix is where the discipline gets tested: "as you speak to a little bit more premium brands, they're really about 100 better malls in the US" Staying out of the secondary channels is hard, because management teams and investors want to see growth
Tariffs Were a Perfect Storm, and the Refunds Are Going to Debt and Buybacks
Kantrowitz asked how the tariff situation has hit her space.
"that's been a perfect storm for companies that manufacture between Vietnam and China" — most of the athletic companies use Vietnam as their main country of manufacture
Moving supply chains, negotiating with vendors and eating some of the cost themselves put gross margin pressure on the business models coming out of 2025 and continuing into 2026
"And of course the consumer got that tax in terms of the higher pricing as well."
Now the tariff refunds are arriving, and she has found it fascinating to watch what companies do with them. Investors do not love the refunds being added to the P&L Most of her coverage excluded the benefit from guidance and will put the proceeds toward capital-structure initiatives — paying down debt, buying back stock "Very few have passed through the benefit to the consumer in terms of lower prices." She pointed to Burlington's earnings that week, in the off-price space her team does not cover, as one company that did choose that, and said it makes a lot of sense for its consumer Others are spending the refund on marketing and other things to benefit the business
On pricing for 2026 and beyond: after the increases taken across the industry, "I think we're realizing that there is a ceiling in terms of how much we can raise" Many of the business models that raised over the last couple of years are keeping prices flattish this year — "which again, we think that's right. We're fans of that thinking."
Kantrowitz suggested a use for the cash: "Some of those companies might want to save that money for round two of tariffs." Andreeva agreed it is definitely true — "It's never a dull moment."
What She Is Excited About: the Dressy Cycle and Beauty, Not Sneakers
Kantrowitz asked what she is most excited and most concerned about within consumer over the next 12 months. A second host cut in with a different version of it: "What are the trends I should know about so that I look cool in front of my kid?"
The answer came back immediately: "Buy Salomon. Buy some Salomon sneakers. Those are very cool."
The sneaker space at large has been fairly toxic for the stocks as well as short on innovation, so the team is avoiding some of those names and sticking to the ones that are innovating
The dressy cycle is the trend she likes: "All of a sudden, we don't want to look like slobs."
Beauty is the other one. It keeps coming, it is getting more competitive as companies high and low lean into the category, and she thinks it is pretty durable
Consumer is a tough space and these companies move in cycles, so being on the right side of those cycles is the standing challenge
The team's teen survey, now on an annual cadence, is out this fall — "the teen consumer tends to be pretty early on in terms of some of these trends"
Korean Beauty Is Already Everywhere, and Chinese Brands Reach the US This Fall
The second host offered an anecdote from home: their eight-year-old asked for nothing but skin care and beauty products for her birthday, and so had her entire friend group at school, which struck them as crazy. "I'm amazed at how much these kids know about these different products."
Andreeva's first response was a question of her own: "Has she discovered K-beauty yet?"
K-beauty is Korean beauty, a trend that has been running in Asia for some time and has been prevalent in Europe, but is still very early in the US outside the true beauty enthusiast
C-beauty is Chinese beauty, and it is the newer one — "for the first time some of these brands are going to be coming into the US starting this fall"
Andreeva's bottom line is that the consumer has not weakened so much as turned selective, and that in a market where the pie is not growing the companies that win are the ones that innovate, hold their price and refuse to be everywhere.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
On Running (Buy-rated by her team; has innovated better than most in footwear, sits at a more premium price point, and controls its distribution because a premium brand does not want to be everywhere)
Amer Sports, Salomon, Arc'teryx and Wilson (Her example of distribution discipline: Salomon "a hot brand right now" with very few US stores and carefully rationed wholesale, Arc'teryx at the premium outdoor end, and Wilson, which she says is "crushing it right now")
Lululemon (Once an extremely coveted premium brand and now her example of what not to do — the assortment life cycle overextended, too much newness, the scarcity message lost, and arguably poor marketing)
Estée Lauder (Impressive execution across its portfolio of brands after years of heavy lifting to clean up distribution, with its China problems behind it and leverage to prestige beauty)
Nike (Its pivot of a couple of years ago to direct-to-consumer and its own stores at the expense of wholesale is her example of what not to do on channel)
Revolve (An online-only retailer in discretionary apparel and accessories that is opening a handful of its own stores — her evidence that e-commerce alone does not bring scale)
Dick's Sporting Goods and Foot Locker (The wholesale doors Amer Sports is entering very carefully, with allocations held back so Salomon never becomes a brand that goes on sale)
Burlington (Named off its earnings that week as one of the very few passing the tariff refund through to shoppers as lower prices; off-price, and outside her coverage)
Chanel (The bag she would skip while still buying the lipstick — her illustration of the lipstick effect)
Books & Resources Mentioned
Piper Sandler's teen survey (Her team's own survey, now on an annual cadence and due out this fall; she watches it because the teen consumer runs early on these trends)
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