RiskReversal Pod Sep 14, 2026 (recorded Sep 11) 32m 25m saved
With Danny Moses, founder of Moses Ventures and host of the On The Tape podcast, one of the investors depicted in The Big Short
Japan can sell more than $1.2 trillion of US Treasuries to defend the yen, and Danny Moses says that single fact is the real constraint on every other policy call in Washington.
Most of the conversation about this week's Fed decision treats crude oil as the whole inflation story. Moses treats it as one input into a bond market that was already headed higher before the war started — and reads Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's own "I am the house" language as the tell that he knows it.
"It really comes down to one thing, and that is our US Treasury market and our ability to keep yields down, because we have so much to issue, and that's really the bottom line here."
Danny Moses, founder of Moses Ventures and host of the On The Tape podcast, was one of the investors who shorted the 2008 housing bubble and was later depicted in The Big Short; he now runs a Substack and podcast built on the same kind of position-sized, skin-in-the-game calls.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 32 minutes of audio, 7 minutes of reading.
Here are the 5 arguments that matter.
Key Takeaways
Japan can sell over $1.2 trillion of US Treasuries to defend the yen or buy back its own bonds, a lever it has held since ending yield curve control in the summer of 2024
US federal debt has crossed $40 trillion and this year's deficit is approaching 7% of GDP — figures Moses calls "not sustainable"
When Bessent calls himself "the house," Moses's answer is that the deck is already known — the debt, the deficit, and $10 trillion of bonds coming due in the next 12 months
He calls Bessent's stance "playing with fire" and traces gold's rebound the day of Japan's FX intervention directly back to Treasury policy
On energy, he says you don't need rising crude for refiners and integrated majors to keep working — Exxon's own 2030 guidance is built on $65 oil
Central banks are bringing their gold home — Germany in 2013, France earlier this year, and the Netherlands repatriating 75-81 tons in the last week, which Moses reads as a signal, not a formality
If the US ever marked its gold reserves to market instead of $422/oz, that alone would turn an $11 billion asset into a $1.3 trillion one
1. Japan Is the Fuse
Asked where to start, Moses went straight to the mechanism connecting Tokyo to Washington's own borrowing costs.
The constraint on US policy sits in Tokyo
It really comes down to one thing, and that is our US Treasury market and our ability to keep yields down, because we have so much to issue, and that's really the bottom line here.
Danny Moses
Japan's leverage is a number, not a mood
They can sell US treasuries over 1.2 trillion of them to defend their own currency and or buy back their bonds.
Danny Moses
He dated the exposure to a specific policy change: Japan ending yield curve control in the summer of 2024, which is when, in his account, "we" started using "gum to plug holes in a boat."
2. Bessent's Card Game
Moses said he was writing a Substack piece, timed to publish alongside the episode, built entirely around the Treasury Secretary's own "I am the house" language.
His frame is the movie about MIT card counters, not the casino
When Bessent says he is the house, great. Guess what? All the cards are turned over.
Danny Moses
The "cards" are numbers everyone can already see
You already know 40 trillion in debt, $2 trillion deficit, 10 trillion in bonds coming due in the next 12 months.
Danny Moses
He was blunt about what that combination means for the Treasury Secretary personally.
His verdict on the strategy
He is playing with fire here, and he's not doing anything.
Danny Moses
He tied the point directly to gold's price action around Japan's currency intervention.
Gold found its floor the same day Japan intervened
It took 24 hours, gold found its bottom, because at the end of the day whatever Bessent's going to do is going to come at the expense of something else. It's a zero-sum game.
Danny Moses
3. The Debt Nobody Will Fix
Moses said the number itself, not any single headline, is what changed the conversation this year.
The debt is what he calls the genie out of the bottle
I think more important, the stuff that's been brought to the forefront, the stuff that now that genie's out of the bottle, is the over 40 trillion in debt. I don't know if it was just crossing that number that made people start to look at it, or $2 trillion deficit we're going to run this year, which is approaching 7% of GDP. These are not sustainable things.
Danny Moses
He drew a direct line from that arithmetic to where the next crisis would actually show up.
His comparison is 2008, but with a different asset
what the housing market was in 2006 and 7 as a source of wealth the stock market is today.
Danny Moses
That is why he watches the bond market for the moment Treasury pain finally reaches equities, rather than treating the debt figures as an abstract policy debate.
4. Cash Flow, Not Drilling
Asked about the energy trade he, Porter Collins and Vinnie Daniel have been early on, Moses said the thesis does not depend on crude going higher from here.
Producers are guiding on a lower oil price than the market currently pays
I go back to what Exxon Mobile said last year, that their EBITDA number in 2030 is predicated on $65 oil. These are cash flow machines. They're not going to drill like crazy.
Danny Moses
He said the discipline mirrors the banks after the financial crisis — a sector that learned its lesson and will not overextend production even with prices well above breakeven.
His preferred way into the sector is bottom-up, not the ETF
A name that we have highlighted on the Substack that Porter and Vinnie have been on for years is a name like Golar, GLNG, which is an LNG terminal company. Basically, they build these terminals and their clients are sovereigns.
Danny Moses
He said Golar's stock is approaching levels last seen in the fall of 2014, and framed the broader energy trade as a 20-to-30-year infrastructure story rather than a bet on the oil price itself.
5. Central Banks' Gold Rush
Moses connected a decade-old data point — Germany's 2013 decision to repatriate its gold — to a wave of similar moves this year.
The pattern started in 2013 and is accelerating now
I woke up to a story that the Bundesbank had announced they were going to repatriate their gold, which opened my eyes because this is something historically that doesn't happen.
Danny Moses
France and the Netherlands have followed this year
France decided they were going to repatriate their gold. And now over the last week, we've heard from the Netherlands, depending on what news source you get, they're repatriating either 75 or 81 tons of their gold back to their shores. That is a huge story because they're obviously concerned about something and in the legal world, possession is 9/10 the law.
Danny Moses
He said the earlier, 2013-era moves were about wanting a "hard currency" after the European financial crisis, while this year's repatriations read differently to him — a hedge against a US administration that could restrict, tax or otherwise interfere with gold held on American soil.
Between the Treasury's own leverage over Japan, a debt load Moses calls unsustainable, and central banks quietly moving their gold home, his read of the week is that the people with the most information are positioning for a currency problem, not just a rate decision.
Bonus Insights
What marking US gold reserves to market would actually do to the balance sheet
That would take it from an $11 billion asset to a $1.3 trillion asset.
Danny Moses
He is a buyer of gold on every drawdown, and said the reasoning is structural rather than a short-term call: "Gold existed long before the US dollar. Gold will exist long after the US dollar."
On who pushed back on Bessent already, Moses said Stanley Druckenmiller had already criticized the Treasury Secretary's market commentary in a public op-ed a few weeks before this episode, telling him to stop trying to trade price and instead trade the underlying.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
Golar LNG ($GLNG — the floating LNG-terminal company Moses named as his preferred bottom-up way into the energy trade, building terminals for sovereign clients including two off Argentina)
Exxon Mobil (Cited for guiding its 2030 EBITDA to a $65 oil price, which Moses used as evidence energy majors are cash-flow disciplined rather than growth-chasing)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) (Moses's example of paper gold exposure that would not help an investor who needed physical gold across a border)
Listen to the full episode
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