BNN Bloomberg Sep 17, 2026 7 min
With John Gibson, industrials and Canadian energy services analyst at BMO Capital Markets
Canada has almost no large-scale data center capacity today. John Gibson said the country is heading for 15 to 20 gigawatts of it.
The US buildout has been running for years and stands at roughly 50 gigawatts already. Gibson's argument is that Canada's late start is the reason to look at it now, because the demand has not gone anywhere and the country has assembled a framework for attracting the capital.
"There's about 50 gigawatts built already. Canada really has a minimal share of that right now."
Gibson covers industrials and Canadian energy services at BMO Capital Markets, and he was on BNN Bloomberg to present a joint report several of the bank's analysts wrote after this week's Canadian Investment Summit. Each contributor put a name forward.
The full segment is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 5 insights that matter.
Key Takeaways
BMO's four picks span the chain: Bird Construction, Finning, Toromont and TransAlta, one from each analyst's coverage
Bird is the anchor tenant on Bell AI Fabric's Saskatchewan site, which went from 300 megawatts to 1.2 gigawatts this week
Gibson's demand estimate is about 200 gigawatts across North America over the next 10 years, against roughly 50 built
The Canadian pitch is cheap natural gas plus a cold climate — one solves power, the other cuts the cooling bill
The constraint is not sites but lead times on backup power equipment, which he says stretches the buildout rather than stopping it
1. Four Names on the List
The report was written by several BMO analysts, and Gibson relayed each one's pick. His own is Bird Construction, which is the anchor tenant on Bell AI Fabric's original 300-megawatt Saskatchewan facility. That site broke ground and was expanded this week to 1.2 gigawatts. Bird has not won the additional 900 megawatts.
"Now, you know, Bird hasn't been selected as the partner for, you know, the additional 900 megawatts, but I think it's very well positioned here to win more work." — John Gibson
His colleague Devon Dodge, who covers industrial names, put forward Finning and Toromont, on backup and prime power in Western Canada and on Toromont's AVL business. Ben Fam, who covers infrastructure, picked TransAlta for its ability to sell contracted power to hyperscalers from sites it already owns in Alberta.
"I think Devon thinks Finning is really well suited from some of the backup power and prime power solutions in Western Canada" — John Gibson
"So, you know, four names that kind of touch a variety of the buildout from both construction, you know, industrial and infrastructure lens. But we think these names all have, you know, multi-year running room going forward here." — John Gibson
2. Sizing the Buildout
Asked what peak deliveries in gigawatts could look like in Canada, Gibson gave a range and flagged how little is settled. Canada has not seen a large data center, he said, while the US buildout has been running for several years. He set his range against a continental demand estimate and against what has already been built.
"Well, it's a little unknown at this time, but we're kind of looking at 15 to 20 gigawatt." — John Gibson
"our estimate of the total addressable market, or of demand, is about 200 gigawatts across North America, you know, call it, over the next 10 years." — John Gibson
3. Power and the Meter
The anchor asked whether the hard part is already handled: behind-the-meter power secured, permitting cleared, none of the friction that has slowed projects in places like Tennessee. Gibson said no, and then named what he thinks Canada has that those places do not. The Saskatchewan site Bell is building runs off the grid; the Alberta project with Meta is behind the meter, which carries an incremental cost.
"I wouldn't say it's done and accounted for." — John Gibson
"but I think what differentiates Canada is our access to cheap natural gas." — John Gibson
"You know, the issue is the lead times for some of this backup power equipment is long, and that's an issue I think that's going to just extend the duration of this buildout further." — John Gibson
"It's going to limit the ability to, you know, build some of these projects very very quickly." — John Gibson
That equipment constraint is also why he pointed back at Finning and Toromont.
4. Where It Gets Built
Gibson was asked whether Alberta and Saskatchewan stay the center of this, or whether hydroelectric power pulls projects into Ontario and Quebec. His answer named three provinces, and he corrected the assumption that nothing has happened in Ontario yet.
"Alberta and Saskatchewan are definitely at the forefront." — John Gibson
"That's actually been where most of the buildout has started." — John Gibson, on Ontario
"some of the smaller centers are currently operating in Ontario, but I think, you know, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Ontario right now are pretty attractive provinces." — John Gibson
Both Alberta and Saskatchewan premiers have backed the buildout publicly, he said, and Ontario has put a framework behind it.
5. The Two Bottlenecks
Asked for the constraints, Gibson named power first and cooling second. Liquid cooling is the part that scales badly: larger centers need more of it, and it adds cost. His claim for Canada on that point is climatic rather than financial.
"Again, you know, it's power is number one." — John Gibson
"So I think Canada, from that perspective, is a little better positioned, just because the climate's a little bit colder here." — John Gibson
"But I think those two bottlenecks are definitely power and cooling." — John Gibson
Bonus Insights
Gibson was careful about where his own view ends. The Finning, Toromont and TransAlta calls are his colleagues' work, and he attributed each one by name rather than presenting the report as a single house view.
He also made the Canadian case a comparative one rather than an absolute one. Other North American regions have natural gas too, in his own words; his argument is that Canada's combination of gas, a developed framework and a colder climate leaves it better placed than the alternatives, not uniquely supplied.
Gibson's bottom line is that the Canadian buildout starts from almost nothing and runs for years, and that the equipment lead times which stretch it out are the reason the suppliers of backup power are the way to own it.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
Bird Construction (Gibson's own pick; anchor tenant on the Saskatchewan facility and, in his view, positioned to win more of the expansion)
Bell (Owner of the AI Fabric site in Saskatchewan, expanded this week from 300 megawatts to 1.2 gigawatts)
Finning and Toromont (Devon Dodge's picks, on backup and prime power in Western Canada and on Toromont's AVL business)
TransAlta (Ben Fam's pick, for contracted power to hyperscalers from existing Alberta sites)
Meta (Counterparty on the Alberta project, which Gibson described as behind-the-meter power)
BMO Capital Markets (Publisher of the joint report the segment was about)
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