Fed funds futures moved to roughly 60-40 odds of a rate hike a week before the meeting, and Carter Worth's read on it is that nothing happens.
Wall Street is arguing over whether the Fed should raise rates into a weakening jobs market. Worth, who reads charts rather than earnings models, says the bond market stopped waiting for the answer three years ago.
"So I think there's some consideration that the Fed is important, but not nearly as important as market participants might want to think."
Worth ran technical analysis at Cornerstone Macro from 2016 to 2021 and now sells chart research under his own name; the FICO options position he walks through here is live inside the WRTH ETF, which he says he and Guy Adami own themselves.
I listened to the full episode so you can skip it. 46 minutes of audio, 24 minutes of reading.
Here are the 16 takeaways that matter.
👤 Guest: Carter Worth, founder of Worth Charting and head of technical analysis at Cornerstone Macro from 2016 to 2021, who manages the WRTH options-income ETF
🎙️ Hosts: Dan Nathan and Guy Adami, CNBC Fast Money contributors who co-host MRKT Call for RiskReversal Media
📰 Published: 9 September 2026 on YouTube (RiskReversal Media)
🔴 YouTube | ⏱️ 46 min | ✅ Time saved: 22 min
Key Takeaways
Worth expects the Fed to do nothing next week, and thinks the decision matters less than the market believes
His reason is human, not economic: it is still one person, and inertia is the easiest choice
The 20-year Treasury ETF has not had a real bounce since late 2023, which Worth reads as a new global regime for rates
Marking the Treasury's gold to market would create a paper gain of around a trillion dollars, and Adami says people in those seats are already discussing it
The official price has been about $42.22 an ounce since the early 1970s
Worth's answer to a Treasury Secretary calling himself the house is that market forces usually beat governments
Semiconductors are coiling rather than resolving, and Worth's bias is down to the 150-day average
Nathan's objection is arithmetic: the biggest semiconductor ETF is 30% Nvidia, and Nvidia has stalled
Energy has already made the move, so Worth is selling calls against it rather than buying more
Industrials are the one group Worth would be short outright
In gold he prefers the miners to the metal, and would pair the two
Worth's ETF is not a directional bet — it sells option premium into stocks that have just gapped
The current example is FICO, sold as a strangle after an earnings gap, with 15 days to expiration
Adami thinks a volatility event is coming, most likely out of the yen and the bond market
A researcher quitting Anthropic is a market story, because the opposition to the AI build-out is becoming bipartisan
Adami's view is that nothing stops the AI spending except a lack of return on the capital
1. The Fed Does Nothing
Nathan opened on how much the odds of a September move have swung around, with a quarter-point hike — not a cut — the thing at stake. Worth's answer was about the person making the decision rather than the data.
Worth said inertia is the strongest force in the room, and that a hike is the harder choice. "Well, there's the human element, right — it's still one man, and you think, gosh, the easiest thing often is inertia, right — do nothing, don't upset the apple cart." He put the chance of a cut at zero and asked whether the market has already tightened for the Fed
His call was flat: nothing happens. "My strong hunch is it's a non-event — they do nothing."
Nathan agreed and went further, saying the Fed no longer sets the bond market. "I don't think it matters to the bond market what the Fed does, to be quite honest with you." He noted the 20-year Treasury ETF had just taken a leg lower while they were talking, to 81.65
Worth's evidence for a regime change is the absence of a bounce. He said the long-bond ETF has had "nary a bounce" since the lows of the fall of 2023, which suggests a new paradigm for interest rates in the United States and globally
"So I think there's some consideration that the Fed is important, but not nearly as important as market participants might want to think."
Nathan put the 10-year yield at 4.83 during the segment, and said a 25 basis point hike next Wednesday would not automatically produce a matching move in longer-dated yields
Nathan also said genuinely live Fed meetings have been rarer over the years than people assume, and put some of that down to the way Waller prefers to communicate with the market in advance
2. Rosie Against Lavorgna
Nathan read from David Rosenberg's note that morning, which argued the case for a hike has weakened. This is the show's own research read on air rather than Worth's work, and Adami answered it.
Rosenberg's argument, as Nathan relayed it, is that the New York Fed's consumer expectations survey undercuts the hawks. "He's saying the Fed hike case weakens further based on the results of the New York Fed's consumer expectations survey. There's no way the Fed should be hiking despite the fact that Wall Street is pushing for a move."
"The one-year inflation expectations in August dipped to a three-month low of 3.58% from 3.63. The three-year median inflation view receded to 3.19% from 3.26, also a three-month low. The five-year expectations have been steady at 3% for five straight months."
The same survey's mean probability of a higher unemployment rate a year out rose to 44.2% from 42.78% in July, which is the basis for Rosenberg's claim that the Fed would be hiking into a weakening jobs picture
Adami's read is that two credible economists are looking at the same data and reaching opposite conclusions. He named Joe Lavorgna as the other side, arguing not only for a hike but for a series of them, and said both men are "highly educated, well-read, thoughtful human beings"
That disagreement is itself the argument for the Fed standing still. "I think sitting on your hands at this point for the Fed is the best course of action." Nathan's summary of the same point: you can always find data to make any case you want
3. Bessent's Big Stack
The episode's title came from a Treasury Secretary's line about being the house. Adami had two reactions — one about decorum, one about what the Treasury could actually do with its balance sheet.
Adami's first objection was to the language, not the policy. "I don't know that there are certain occupations, certain positions that require a degree of decorum, I believe — maybe not, I don't know, maybe the world has changed and that should be one of them, but we're obviously going down roads now that have seldom, if ever, been traversed."
The mechanism people are talking about is the Treasury General Account, and behind it, the gold. "Since the early 1970s, gold has been marked at the US Treasury, I think at $42.22, or right around that."
Revaluing that holding at today's price would create an enormous paper gain, and Adami says the idea is live. "If you were to mark to market, what does that do? It turns that position into basically a mark-to-market gain, at this price, of either side of a trillion dollars." He said he knows people who sit in those seats and that they are "throwing it out there now", with pros and a lot of cons
The poker metaphor is the Treasury Secretary's own, and Adami turned it around. "And be careful, because if you're not a skilled poker player, that big stack becomes a small stack very quickly."
Worth's answer was that this is a category of statement people take back. He put it as hubris, "or believing that one's bigger than the market", and reached for the adages that survive because they work — "where there's smoke there's fire", and "Don't fight the Fed", which he rates real but not as good as the others
His bottom line is that governments lose this fight more often than they win it. "At the end of the day, bond vigilantes, and throughout history, market forces have quite often overwhelmed any effort at a government level to control things." He said one has to take that kind of language with care
4. Semis Coil at the 150-Day
The first chart was the semiconductor complex, which has doubled and then stalled. Worth described a standoff rather than a trend.
Worth's read is a coil, with both sides pressing and no resolution yet. The chip index has pulled back but not all the way to its 150-day average, and he called the tension between bears and bulls a "pair of twos" as patterns go — a hand worth almost nothing either way
His bias is lower, and his position sizing is small. "My hunch is lower, that we ultimately do get down to the 150-day". He added: "If one wants to be long or short, I would do it very small — my own bias is lower." The move he is measuring is a double from the March lows to the June highs, in three to four months
Adami's contribution was a valuation question about Nvidia rather than a chart. The stock did not get back to its prior highs after earnings, and he thinks the market is saying something: "The point I've been trying to make, and maybe more people are starting to think about it this way — we all know the numbers around it, Dan, we all know the growth numbers, the earnings, the revenue, the margins, all those things are known — yet the market still is not giving it a valuation even close to a market multiple, forget about multiples of some of their peers."
He reads the discount as the market pricing in inevitable competition, which is why he thinks the semiconductor ETF pulls back
Nathan's objection to calling it an even standoff is that the index is not diversified. "And you could say a pair of twos, Carter, I get it with the SMH, but to me the SMH is 30% Nvidia", with Taiwan Semi behind it, so a stalling Nvidia is most of the problem
Nathan also connected the chart to the physical build-out. He cited a Wall Street Journal piece that morning on delays in data center construction, headlines about Google using its own chips and a Blackstone-backed neocloud deal, and the state-level pushback: "And by the way, Texas, which is the new home of data centers, has a moratorium on new data centers being built, right, and this is all happening before our eyes."
Worth's summary of the pattern is that this is what a post-double market does. "Yeah, you double, you drop 30% after that, and then you back and fill, and that backing and filling is very much the circumstance of the day."
5. Sell Calls Into Energy
The energy sector ETF has broken out of a multi-year range and is at new highs. Worth's response to a successful trade is to take something off it.
Worth described the same time frame on every chart that day — four to five years — and a textbook sequence in energy: a long, dull, rangebound period, an epic breakout, a check back to the 150-day average, and a bounce off it
His action after that sequence is to hedge, not to add. "I think you start hedging this here, you start selling calls and trimming."
Adami agreed on trimming while making the case that the trade is not finished. He put crude in the mid-90s and Brent above 100, and said a move to 200 a barrel would be a different conversation entirely
His point about how these stocks behave is that they do not move in straight lines. Energy shares are not names that go parabolic over weeks; they back and fill on the back of an oil pullback or a headline
He noted Worth had called the refiners right a few weeks earlier and that they are "back on the horse"
The reason he would not exit is structural rather than technical. "But I think the fundamental energy story has changed now for the foreseeable future and these stocks will benefit from it."
6. Industrials Lost Their Way
The industrials ETF got the shortest answer of the episode and the most decisive one.
Worth said the uptrend is rolling over. He pointed at the big constituents — Caterpillar, General Electric, Cummins — and said the group "is slipping, it's a bit dodgy, lost its way"
He refused the middle position. "One has to be in or out, long or short, overweight or underweight — I would be a seller. I'm a seller." It is the only sector in the episode he would be outright short
7. Miners Over Bullion
Gold and the gold miners are two different charts, and Worth wanted both on the screen. His preference is the operating businesses.
Bullion itself is stalled, and a flat average is not a comfortable place to be. "Gold's kind of stuck — 15 days is flattened, and that's typically a circumstance that's problematic." He described the two camps — reasons to go higher, and the argument that the run ended in a blow-off top — and refused both
On the metal it is another standoff, and he is not short it: "there's nothing about this moment that suggests I've got to short this"
The miners are the better chart, and the trade is a pair. He called the miners more constructive, having sold off more, and said "miners over bullion for me" — long the equities against the commodity
He acknowledged the objection to pairs trading: people dislike not knowing which way they are rooting
Adami's case for gold runs through interest rates, and reverses the usual logic. The received view is that rising yields are a headwind for a metal that pays nothing. "I think we're reaching a point in time where higher yields are actually going to be a tailwind for gold."
He also thinks the Treasury Secretary's rhetoric is fuel for the gold bulls, and pointed to central banks taking physical delivery: "And when you see France repatriating their gold earlier this year, what we just talked about in terms of the Netherlands — these are not one-offs, you're going to see more and more of this happening."
Nathan closed the segment by telling the audience the distinction is worth learning: the commodity and the companies that pull it out of the ground do not behave the same way
8. The FICO Vol Crush
The last chart was a live position in Worth's ETF. Nathan set it up by describing the strategy, and Worth confirmed the description.
The fund sells option premium after a large move, rather than betting on direction. Nathan's framing: these are not out-of-the-money options sold while waiting for a disaster, but premium harvested from a move that has already happened
Worth's own description is blunter. "I think we have our arms around it, we're in the vol-crush business." The bet is that after a big directional move, up or down, news-related or not, the stock backs and fills — so the fund sells a strangle, meaning a call above the market and a put below it
The current position is in FICO, the credit-scoring company, put on after its earnings gap. In his words: "Not that long ago, September 4th, a Friday — FICO trading at 947 — you see there on the screen — 15 days to expiration, sold the 1040 calls, took in 8.89, sold the 820 puts, took in 14.64, which is 1.4% of the value of the stock — 37% annualized return, if it works out, but 1.54% for 15 days."
The trade is a bet on the range holding until the September 18 expiration. "Does FICO climb all the way back to 1050 between now and next Friday? Maybe, we're betting no." He asked the same question of the downside and gave the same answer
Adami supplied the reason the stock is volatile in the first place. Bill Ackman has had the credit-rating companies in his crosshairs, arguing they are overcharging, and part of the move is that campaign — so absent fresh rhetoric, he expects the stock to go sideways
Nathan's caution is that the strategy's risk is a second shock, not the first one. A stock that just gapped down would need a second piece of bad news within two weeks to break the range, which is possible; equally, something would have to explain a recovery to the old level after a drop that had a reason behind it
The protection is portfolio construction rather than the individual trade. Nathan described 40 to 50 equally weighted positions, 15 to 20 sessions to expiration, across a wide range of strangles. Worth's addition: equal weighting takes the single-name risk down, and spreading it across sectors avoids waking up with a book that is all software
9. The Midday Tape
Worth left, and Nathan reset the screen for the second half of the show.
Nathan's level set, in his own words: "So let's level set — we have an S&P that's down 50 basis points, a Nasdaq down 50 basis points, the VIX trading at the highs of the last week or so at 16.57, oil at 96 and a half, that's WTI, Brent is 101, the 10-year is at 4.84 — haven't seen that in a while — the 30-year is kind of stuck here at this 5.30 level, the Dixie is below 99."
With most companies through earnings, he called it a macro market, with a CPI print on Friday and a Fed meeting a week out
Adami put the futures market at a 60-40 split — a 60 for a hike against 40 for nothing done — and said he would be very surprised if the Fed moved
His explanation for the bond moves is global rather than American. Investors are coming to a realization that there are debt problems that will be hard to solve, and the price of financing them is rising: "And I think that's what we're seeing, and in a world where everybody seems to be taking their ball and going to their respective corners, that suggests the appetite to buy our debt is not going to be as robust as it was in prior years."
10. Higher Rates, Wrong Reason
Nathan asked why the S&P 500 has slipped back toward 7,600, the level it broke out from, after a straight-line run in late July from about 7,350 to nearly 7,800.
Adami's answer is that the index has finally caught up with what individual sectors already knew. The re-rating has been happening at a sector level for a while and is only now showing up at the index level: higher rates for the wrong reasons are not good news in what he called a capital-intensive economy
The evidence he watches is credit rather than equity. Credit default swaps, consumer delinquency rates and "a swath of different things" that the S&P had ignored entirely until the last couple of weeks
He expects a volatility event, and named where he thinks it comes from. "I do think there's a volatility event coming — I think it's probably predicated on some yen, bond-type move, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat, to a certain extent, of what we saw two years ago, in August."
11. Treasury Defends a Price
Nathan brought up a note from Peter Boockvar, flagged to him by Doug Kass, on that morning's Treasury buyback.
The buyback came in larger than announced and yields rose anyway. Nathan read the update as a $6 billion longer-end buyback against $4 billion initially indicated, with some expecting as much as 7 to 8 billion, and the 10-year yield at the highs of the day
The note carried a Stan Druckenmiller line that Boockvar was reposting, which is the sharpest formulation of the problem in the episode: "Once markets believe Treasury is defending a price, every rise in yields becomes a test of official resolve, and the operations must grow to survive the test."
Nathan's reading of the standoff is that two arms of policy are pulling against each other and losing to the market. The Treasury is trying to dictate the level of yields while the Fed tries to respond to them, and right now the market is beating the Treasury
Adami's concern is that ego turns a policy question into a bet. "And this back and forth will continue, and it's a very high-stakes game that ego should not be part of, because once ego gets involved, then you start making poor decisions."
12. Iran Plays for Time
Nathan linked the moves in oil and yields to the war, citing a New York Times piece headlined that Iran signals readiness to escalate in the face of rising US pressure.
Nathan described an overnight escalation — three Iranian oil tankers attacked — and recalled that earlier in the war Iranian ballistic missiles hit US bases in the region, with hundreds injured and, he believes, 18 soldiers killed
His argument is that economic pressure does not work on this government. Iran's economy is being destroyed and its oil sales to China are not happening, but he said this is a country that does not care about its citizens' hardship or civilian casualties, so cornering it makes escalation more likely rather than less
Adami thinks Washington misjudged the length of the war. He said the level of escalation on 9 September has to be surprising to people in the administration who believed it would be over within weeks of starting
The timeline he expects is political. "I think they want to get it to the midterms and then see what happens if and when." He added: "The midterms are in November, it is the beginning of September, so I guess my point is you have at least two more months of this, is my sense."
Nathan's objection is that waiting out an election may not change anything. Even with Democratic control of both chambers, the president can act by executive order, and there is a case that the US escalates after the midterms once munitions have been replenished
The market consequence he draws is that war-driven inflationary pressure persists, which means higher US rates — the opposite of what the president wants
13. An AI Safety Exit
Nathan turned to a story that had run for a day: an Anthropic researcher resigning over fears that AI is going out of control.
The researcher had worked at both OpenAI and Anthropic, is named in the coverage as Jacob Coxon, and quit on what Nathan called the eve of an Anthropic public offering, walking away from what he assumes is millions of dollars
The reason it is a market story is the surrounding pressure on the labs. Nathan tied it to a Wall Street Journal piece on how many people have grown rich on AI valuations, to bipartisan pushback on data centers, and to the OpenAI-Hugging Face hack, and said things are stacking up against the labs in the public's view
Adami's read is about what a race does to safeguards. In a race to be first, the checks that would normally be in place may not be, and he said hearing fear from people inside the industry is a wake-up call. He cited Dylan Ratigan, the original host of Fast Money, posting videos on the same theme
His investment conclusion is that safety worries will not slow the spending, but returns will. "Now it's not going to stop the spend. But you know what will stop the spend, Dan? The lack of return on invested capital."
He turned Jensen Huang's own analogy against the trade. Huang has described what his company does as the new electricity; Adami's point is that electricity, arguably the most important discovery in human history, is now a commodity. "And you don't — well, you don't want to be commoditized in our world, let's put it that way, and that's sort of the road they're going down."
14. Data Center Delays
The same day's headline that a Google and Blackstone venture is hitting delays at its data center sites gave Nathan the market expression of the story.
The deal is small by the standards of this cycle and still worth watching. Nathan put it at $5 billion, which he said seems quaint next to other announcements, and pointed at the structure behind it: private equity setting up special purpose vehicles that keep the debt off the balance sheets of the large cloud companies
The alternative-asset managers sold off on it. Blackstone was down three and a third percent on the day, KKR nearly 2% and Blue Owl nearly 3%, after what he called an epic move off the lows
The constraint is local politics and power, not demand. States are putting moratoriums on data center builds and pulling back tax breaks, including Texas — a heavy red state with cheap energy that Nathan said should have been running away with the business
The local objections he named are the cost of energy, access to it, and water
15. Meta Up, Google Flat
Nathan set two large-cap AI stories against each other: a company whose new consumer product is being rewarded, and one whose equivalent product is not.
Meta's case rests on it not being a cloud provider. It has no Azure, AWS or Google Cloud, so its AI spending has to pay for itself through better advertising or by making applications like WhatsApp earn money directly
Nathan's argument is that a personal agent is the way that spending becomes revenue. The newly launched agent is getting good reviews, the company has billions of users across its properties, and he sees a monetization route that combines subscription income with transactions. The stock has run hard off its recent lows and was up again on the day
The comparison with Google is the point. Google has an equivalent product inside Gemini, and its shares have been trading poorly — almost exactly where they were a year ago — despite the vertical integration Nathan has argued makes it the safest way to own AI: its own chips, its cloud business, search, advertising and multiple billion-user platforms
Adami's view is that distribution makes it a low-risk bet. With half the global population on the platforms, adding a product that can be monetized has a large upside: "I think it's low-risk, high-return, is the point I tried to make last night, and you're seeing it in the stock today."
He expects the announcement to mark a short-term bottom in the stock, with a counter-narrative later. "So I think there's a very good chance this trajectory continues", before headlines that probably take it back to the 200-day average
16. Oracle Is the Event
Nathan finished on the earnings report he thinks matters most for the AI trade.
Oracle reports after the close on Thursday, after a very large move in a very short time, which is why he called it a really big event for the sector rather than for one stock
His logic runs from the physical build-out to the smallest balance sheets. If demand pauses because of the constraints already discussed — energy access, regulation, tax breaks — then the companies renting out AI computing power are hit first: they "get killed first, it's just that simple", with CoreWeave the name he pointed at
The distinction he drew is between the products and the pipes. It is not the personal agents that concern him, it is what is happening with data center construction
Bonus Insights
The episode opened on back-to-school, and Worth's version applies to everyone. "What do they call this — the back-to-school season. For you, even if you're not in school, still applies, right? You could be 80 years old, it still very much applies to you." Nathan noted Worth has four children in four different schools, and that he was wearing a tie because he had somewhere else to be straight after the show
Adami explained cookie mush on air, and Worth's summary of it was one word. Worth's guess: "you chop up a cookie in a bowl and you eat it." Adami's correction: "Chips Ahoy are all the same size, right? So they fit nicely in a tall glass." The recipe is eight to ten cookies stacked in a glass, milk poured over, packed down with a spoon or, in his telling, a screwdriver. Worth's verdict: "Disgusting"
Adami's take on the foldable phone Apple is launching at $2,000 was that it will not go in a pocket. "But you won't have it in your pocket — you know why, because it won't fit in your pocket, it is too damn big — that is the Vision Pro of cell phones"
Nathan's closing prediction was a single sentence with no chart behind it: the bond market is going to challenge both the Treasury and the Federal Reserve, and the whisper number on the morning's buyback had been 10 to 12 billion, which is not what arrived
Worth's whole contribution reduces to one instruction: after a market has already made its move — the doubled chip index, the broken-out energy sector, the gapped-down credit scorer — stop paying for direction and start selling it.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
WRTH options-income ETF (Worth's own fund, which sells strangles on large-cap stocks after big moves; he says he and Adami own it, and the FICO position is a live example)
FICO (The credit-scoring company behind the week's trade, sold as a strangle after an earnings gap; Adami says Bill Ackman's campaign against the rating firms is part of why the stock moved)
VanEck Semiconductor ETF and Nvidia (The coiling chart Worth would sell small; Nathan's objection is that the fund is 30% Nvidia, and Adami says the market is refusing to pay a market multiple for it)
Taiwan Semiconductor (The other weight Nathan named behind the semiconductor ETF)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (Trading at 81.65 during the segment; Worth's evidence for a new rate regime is that it has not had a real bounce since late 2023)
Energy Select Sector SPDR (Broke out of a multi-year range to new highs; Worth would sell calls against it and trim, while Adami says the fundamental story has changed for the foreseeable future)
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (The one group Worth would be outright short: "I would be a seller. I'm a seller.")
SPDR Gold Shares and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (Worth's pair trade — the metal is stuck with a flattening average, the miners sold off more and look more constructive)
Blackstone, KKR and Blue Owl (The private-capital firms behind the vehicles that keep data center debt off the cloud companies' balance sheets; all three sold off on the delay headline)
Google and Gemini (Has the same kind of personal-agent product as Meta and a chip, cloud, search and advertising stack behind it, yet trades where it did a year ago)
Meta and WhatsApp (Not a cloud provider, so its AI spending has to pay for itself through advertising and by monetizing messaging; the new personal agent is Nathan's example of how)
Oracle (Reports after the close on Thursday following a very large move; Nathan calls it the event for the whole AI trade)
CoreWeave (The neocloud Nathan says gets hit first if the data center build-out slows)
Anthropic, OpenAI and Hugging Face (The AI safety resignation, the coming public offering and the hack that Nathan says are stacking up against the labs in public opinion)
Apple (Launching a foldable phone at $2,000, which Adami calls the Vision Pro of cell phones)
Books & Resources Mentioned
Rosenberg Research – David Rosenberg (The morning note Nathan read out, arguing the case for a Fed hike weakens further on the consumer-expectations data)
Survey of Consumer Expectations – Federal Reserve Bank of New York (The August survey behind Rosenberg's inflation and unemployment-probability figures)
The Boock Report – Peter Boockvar (The morning note Nathan and Adami read daily; its Treasury buyback update, and the Stan Druckenmiller passage it reposted, are quoted in the episode)
TheStreet Pro – Doug Kass (The other daily read Nathan named, and where he saw the buyback update flagged)
America's Data-Center Build-Out Is Falling Way Behind Schedule – The Wall Street Journal (The morning piece Nathan cited on construction delays running against chip backlogs)
Google, Blackstone Venture Faces Delays at Data-Center Sites (The delay headline behind the sell-off in the alternative-asset managers)
Iran Signals Readiness to Escalate Fight in Face of Rising U.S. Pressure – The New York Times (The article Nathan read from before the discussion of oil, yields and the midterms)
Anthropic Researcher Quits Over 'Out-of-Control' AI Fears – The Wall Street Journal (The resignation story that opened the AI segment)
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