WSJ What's News Sep 20, 2026
With Andy Critchlow, Head of Energy News at Dow Jones Energy
A force Andy Critchlow describes as agrarian, flying rudimentary drones with Iranian help, has closed a strait that normally carries about 3.5 million barrels of crude a day and struck a pumping station deep inside Saudi Arabia.
The comforting comparison is the Tanker War of the 1980s, when the risks to energy were arguably worse and the system held. Critchlow says two things did not exist then: armed drones, and the ability to watch every cargo on the water in real time.
"Absolutely. The world's changed. When we look at what's changed it, it's the nature of warfare, drones, the nature of surveillance in many respects."
Andy Critchlow, Head of Energy News at Dow Jones Energy, on WSJ What's News, has covered oil as a reporter for 26 or 27 years, long enough to have been told repeatedly that the Strait of Hormuz was a red herring.
The full segment is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 6 arguments that matter.
Key Takeaways
The change is not the level of risk but the technology: drones plus real-time tanker tracking let a small force pick targets that were untouchable in the 1980s
A strait handling about 3.5M barrels a day has been shut by a proxy force with rudimentary equipment
China is the most exposed major economy and does not protect the shipping it depends on; American vessels do
2026 is the first year Chinese transport fuel demand has fallen since the country joined the WTO in 2001
Electric-vehicle uptake is running far ahead of what analysts expected, and road transport is about a third of global crude demand — which puts peak demand on the table
When Riyadh invoked the Carter Doctrine after the 2019 Abqaiq attack, Washington said no, and the relationship has not been the same since
1. Drones Changed The Math
The host put Critchlow's own earlier line back to him: that the security environment around energy has been flipped on its head, and what everyone pretended could be made safe cannot be. Critchlow did not soften it.
What changed is the technology, not the appetite for attacking energy
Absolutely. The world's changed. When we look at what's changed it, it's the nature of warfare, drones, the nature of surveillance in many respects.
Andy Critchlow
His comparison is the 1980s Tanker War in the Gulf, when he says the risks to energy were arguably more profound than they are now. Two capabilities did not exist.
Nobody could watch the cargoes then, and nobody could fly a cheap drone at them
Because if you go back to, say, the 1980s when you had the Tanker War in the Gulf, and arguably the risks against energy were more profound then, the thing that we didn't have then obviously was drones, but also you didn't have the ability to track real-time tankers, oil on the water to pinpoint with remarkable accuracy exactly where things were that you needed to attack if that's what you were wanting to do.
Andy Critchlow
2. A Choke Point Shut
What that combination buys an under-equipped force is the subject of his next answer, and he gave the number attached to it.
A proxy force with basic drones can close a major shipping channel
Now what's changed is you can be a pretty agrarian force in Yemen, as the Houthis are, equipped with some rudimentary drone technology, a bit of help from the Iranians, obviously the Houthis are a proxy, and you can effectively shut down one of the world's most critical shipping channels. The Bab al-Mandab Strait normally handles about 3.5 million barrels a day of crude.
Andy Critchlow
The same capability reaches inland. The attack on the pumping station on the East-West Pipeline is the case he cited, and he left the defensive question open.
The range now extends deep into Saudi territory
Not only that, you can strike deep into Saudi Arabia, which is what they appear to have done with this attack on the pumping station in the East-West Pipeline. How do you protect against that?
Andy Critchlow
3. China Is Most Exposed
Asked who carries the risk, Critchlow named China before he named anyone in the region.
The second largest economy is the one most dependent on the link
China, especially China, is probably the most exposed of all the major economies, world's second largest economy, a huge producer of manufactured goods, a huge consumer of commodities in general, and very much dependent on that link with the Middle East.
Andy Critchlow
China buys the oil; the US Navy protects it
What this has exposed is that, okay, China buys all the Middle Eastern oil, but it doesn't protect it, right? It's not Chinese naval vessels putting their lives on the line to protect the shipping. It's the U.S. And that's the paradox.
Andy Critchlow
Critchlow said he thinks Beijing now wants to change that arrangement.
4. The First Demand Drop
Then the statistic that has nothing to do with the war, and may matter more than it.
2026 breaks a run that started when China joined the WTO
In fact, actually 2026, this will be the first year where we've actually seen Chinese transport fuel demand drop. That's since 2001 when they joined WTO, and we saw the start of the boom in the Chinese economy.
Andy Critchlow
The cause he gave is electrification, moving faster than the forecasts, against a demand base in which road transport is the largest single block.
Road transport is about a third of world crude demand, and China is electrifying it
So you're seeing now in China an exponential increase in an uptake of electric vehicles, the electrification of transport, far in excess of what most analysts thought. That's important because road transport still accounts for about a third of global crude demand. The question is, is this the peak of global oil demand that we're seeing now?
Andy Critchlow
5. Washington Said No In 2019
The host cited the Journal's own reporting that the Saudi crown prince has asked President Trump to join the fight against the Houthis and has not been answered, and that Trump has said the US would do everything except attack them. He asked whether countries in the region might act alone.
Critchlow's answer was that this has already been tested. In 2019 the Abqaiq oil facility in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province was hit.
Abqaiq was called the Achilles' heel of the oil industry
Well, they've done it before, 2019 when the Abqaiq oil facility in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province was hit. That at the time was described as the Achilles' heel of the global oil industry, and it shocked the markets.
Andy Critchlow
The biggest intraday move on record, and the market closed flat
In fact, on the day that Abqaiq was attacked, it was the biggest intraday movement in physical oil markets historically that we'd ever seen. But actually by the end of the day, markets had closed pretty much where they started.
Andy Critchlow
What happened next is the precedent he wanted on the table. The Saudis asked the US to honor the Carter Doctrine, the unwritten guarantee since the 1970s that Washington protects energy infrastructure and energy flows out of the region.
They asked, and the answer was no
The Saudis at that time went to the U.S. government, "Can you come and help us? You have this thing, the Carter Doctrine, the implicit guarantee that you will protect energy infrastructure and energy flows out of the Middle East," and the U.S. said no.
Andy Critchlow
Riyadh's reaction changed the relationship
That triggered quite a dramatic response in Riyadh in terms of the relationship with the U.S. and also the status of this agreement, unwritten guaranteed energy security out of the region since the 1970s.
Andy Critchlow
And the reason it may go the same way again is capacity
The U.S. is stretched at the moment. This conflict has exposed vulnerabilities of conventional militaries like the U.S. and their ability to take on nations like Iran.
Andy Critchlow
6. Forecasts With Dates
The host read out a Citi forecast that the Strait of Hormuz reopens in the fourth quarter, supported by what the analysts called regional diplomacy, and asked whether Critchlow believed it.
The trade's own rule is not to put a date on an oil call
Well, it's like kind of putting a target on the wall, right? I think they say about oil price forecasting, never give an oil price forecast with a date. That seems like they've broken that rule there.
Andy Critchlow
His evidence is his own career listening to the consensus about that waterway.
He was told for years that Hormuz was a red herring
I've been an oil reporter, oil journalist now for 26, 27 years. For much of that time, I heard people say, "The Strait of Hormuz, this is a red herring. There's no danger. The U.S. will always protect it." Look what happened.
Andy Critchlow
Bonus Insights
What the host laid out before the questions started
The show's own framing of the week: Iran exerting control over the Strait of Hormuz, Iran-backed Houthis capturing another maritime choke point near Yemen, and a Saudi oil pipeline shut after drone attacks. On the host's account, Middle Eastern energy supplies have not looked this precarious in decades.
The interview was a follow-up, not a first conversation
The host opened by quoting what Critchlow had told him after the attack on the East-West Pipeline, and asked whether he still held that view. He did.
Critchlow's bottom line is that cheap drones and real-time cargo tracking have made energy infrastructure defensible only in theory, that the country with the most to lose from that is China rather than the United States, and that the demand side may be turning at the same moment the supply side became unreliable.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
Citi (Its analysts forecast the Strait of Hormuz reopening in the fourth quarter, "supported by regional diplomacy" — the call Critchlow says broke the rule against dating an oil forecast)
The World Trade Organization (China's accession in 2001 is the start of the run in transport fuel demand that he says ends this year)
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