The US Energy Secretary says more than 12 million barrels of oil and oil products went through the Strait of Hormuz in a single night, on a seven-day average above 10 million barrels a day that is still rising.
Commercial shipping monitors are not seeing those cargoes, which is the part of the story Chris Wright wanted to explain: the vessels are escorted by the US Joint Force, move mostly at night, and sail with their transponders off.
"So ours aren't estimates or guesses or magic math."
Wright runs the Department of Energy and says he has been in contact with his Saudi counterpart since hours after the attack on the East-West pipeline. He gets a written report every morning naming every ship, its cargo and its transit.
The full segment is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 7 numbers that matter.
👤 Guest: Chris Wright, US Secretary of Energy
🎙️ Host: Jonathan Ferro, who anchors Bloomberg Surveillance on Bloomberg Television
👥 Also on: Lori Calvasina of RBC Capital Markets and Jennifer Huddleston of the Cato Institute, in separate segments of the same programme
📰 Published: 14 September 2026 on the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast feed
🟣 Apple Podcasts | 🔗 Episode page | ⏱️ length not available
Key Takeaways
Over 12 million barrels moved through the Strait of Hormuz in one night, against a seven-day average above 10 million barrels a day
He expects the running average to keep climbing regardless of what Iran does
The tankers are escorted, move at night and run with transponders off, which is why commercial trackers cannot see them
The oil problem fades; the refined products problem does not
Russia has gone from a meaningful diesel exporter to exporting none, and from a small gasoline exporter to a meaningful importer
He blames two California refinery closures on state climate policy and calls them own goals
The strategic petroleum reserve starts refilling within months, because the released oil was swapped rather than sold
1. The East-West Pipeline
Jonathan Ferro opened on the Saudi East-West pipeline and what energy ministers across the Middle East expect to happen to it.
Wright's first point was that this is not a new situation. Strikes on energy infrastructure are not new, and in his words Iran has done a ton of that
His read on the operators is that they have handled it before. "But they've proven resourceful in the past. I think you'll see the pipeline back running very soon."
He has been in direct contact since the attack. He said he has been in close contact with his Saudi counterpart since hours after it started, while the Saudis carefully assess the damage and what needs to be done
He would not commit to a timeline on air, but implied one is close. "I might have more of a time frame tomorrow."
2. 12M Barrels Through Hormuz
Ferro put the pipeline's capacity at 7 million barrels a day and asked how much oil is moving through the Red Sea.
Most of it is not going the way people assume. A few million barrels a day have gone through, but Wright said most has not gone through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — it has gone the other way, through the Suez Canal and the pipeline in Egypt
His headline number came from that morning's data. "Over 12 million barrels of oil and oil products flowed through the Strait of Hormuz last night."
The running average is the number he wants people to use. "The running seven-day average is over 10 million barrels a day and on a gradual upward trend." He clarified later that the 12 million is a single day and the average is a little over 10 million
His forecast was unconditional. "That will not be stopped by any activity Iran does. Bumps on the road, of course, but those are temporary bumps."
3. Escorted, Dark, at Night
Ferro noted that 12 million barrels a day is above the 10 million Wright had given a few weeks earlier, and asked how the vessels are getting out.
The mechanics are military. The ships are escorted by the US Joint Force, they are defended, and the transits are mostly done at night
The transponders are off, which explains the discrepancy with public trackers. That, Wright said, is why the commercial shipping monitors have not had the ability to see it
His own source is a manifest, not a model. Every morning he gets a report of every single ship, the ship name, exactly what its cargo was, and that it transited. "So ours aren't estimates or guesses or magic math."
He was visibly irritated by the doubters. "I've heard all sorts of just hilarious critiques. It's just a serious reporting of exactly what's happening."
Asked whether the report separates crude from products, he confirmed it does. He combines the two in what he gives publicly; the department also gets reports on LNG and other products, and he said he has confined his public disclosures to oil and oil products
4. Where the Diesel Went
Ferro asked how much of the roughly 30% rise in US diesel prices over the past couple of months comes from the Middle East, and how much from Ukrainian attacks on Russian facilities, as the president had suggested the day before.
His answer was that it is all of it. He called it a combination of all of the above, and said getting more refined product out of the Middle East is one of the department's focuses there — the trend is up, the volumes are not trivial, and he wants more
The Russian collapse is the specific number he gave. Russia was a meaningful exporter of diesel; today they are not exporting any. It was a small exporter of gasoline; now it is a meaningful importer
Refining is tight in two places at once, the Middle East and Russia
He added a domestic cause and blamed a named official. He said Gavin Newsom managed to close two significant refineries in California in the last 12 months, and called those own goals from Democrat climate policies, arguing that hobbling the US energy system does nothing good for the world
5. Refining Is the Problem
Ferro pressed on how quickly prices can come down, noting that analysts on the programme mostly see them rising into the election.
He conceded the short run without conceding the direction. Iran has turned up its attempts to disrupt energy flows, has a lot of missiles and drones, and in his words has caused trouble and spread fear in the short run
His forecast is more oil moving, on a horizon of weeks and months. "I'm pretty confident you will see increased flows of oil and oil products through the strait in the coming weeks and in the coming months, regardless of what Iran does."
On the domestic side he named a regulatory change. Rules for US refiners were changed to increase their throughput, and with the summer driving season past he expects a natural decline in demand alongside rising American refinery throughput
The headwinds he listed are all refining. The Russian refining sector, and Chinese capacity he said has been held off the market — which he suspects will partly come back
Asked where the confidence comes from, he named his sources. Conversations with the US military about how operations are running, and with the exporters in the area about their plans for getting ships and product ready. The last eight weeks have been bumpy but steadily up, and his suspicion is that the next two months bring a more rapid increase than the last two
6. Two Pathways With Iran
Ferro pointed out that the Gulf partners' meeting with the Iranians had been shelved and that the rhetoric from the region is not optimistic.
Wright separated the diplomacy from the logistics. One pathway runs through Iran changing course and choosing to give opportunities to its 90 million citizens, and he said plainly that he does not know how to handicap that one
The other pathway is the one he controls. The US joint force, in collaboration with allies in the region, is being used to get flows to increase no matter what Iran does
He stated the administration's preference and its fallback in one line. "President Trump prefers the peace approach, but we've got the military assets to drive flows even without peace."
His read of Iran's position was that it has run out of leverage. "They don't have a card anymore. Maybe it's better to give up the ghost."
7. Refilling the SPR
Ferro put the promise against the price: gasoline above $4.30, diesel above $6, and crude in the strategic petroleum reserve barely above the mandatory baseline.
His answer on timing was months, not years. "Oh, it'll start being refilled in the next few months."
The mechanism is the reason he is confident. None of the oil released was sold — it was swapped, with delivery dates and delivery amounts agreed in the contracts, so that oil starts going back in
He then reframed the whole problem. "The oil problem is going to fade away. The bigger problem is the refined products." Turning oil into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel is where the constraint sits
On the price promise he pointed backwards. He cited last year's inflation-adjusted prices for gasoline, diesel and natural gas home heating as amazingly low, and said the president has delivered on increasing American energy flows
His defense of the disruption was about Iran's program, not about oil. In his account the president decided not to kick the can down the road and deliver a nuclear-powered Iran to his successor, and the resulting short-term disruption is the price of that
His closing argument was a counterfactual. "Imagine long term energy prices where you have this regime in power in Iran and they're nuclear armed. That's unacceptable."
Wright's bottom line is that the crude is already moving in volumes the public trackers cannot see, and that what is left of the price problem sits in refining capacity rather than in supply.
Bonus Insights
The segment was set up by news that Iran and Gulf states had delayed talks on a temporary shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz, and that Saudi Arabia had closed a key alternative route
The gap between his two figures was a definitional one, and he corrected it himself. The 12 million is yesterday's total; the running average is a little over 10 million barrels a day — which is the number he says will keep going up
He volunteered the LNG reporting without being asked about it, which suggests the department is tracking considerably more than what it discloses publicly
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