Baidu's Apollo Go operates robotaxis in 28 cities to Waymo's 14, and has taken 23 million lifetime ride orders against Waymo's 20 million.
The robotaxi story has been told for three years as an American one — Waymo against Tesla, Phoenix against Austin. Alec Renehan's read of the scoreboard is that the lead has already moved to a Chinese company most investors still think of as a search engine.
"It's not about the US anymore. It's now a global race, and you flagged it."
Renehan and Bryce Leske launched Equity Mates in 2017 and built it into a network of six shows with more than 25 million downloads, now part of the Betashares group.
I listened to the full episode so you can skip it. 27 minutes of audio, 17 minutes of reading.
Here are the 13 takeaways that matter.
🎙️ Hosts: Bryce Leske and Alec Renehan, Co-founders of Equity Mates Media
📰 Published: 9 September 2026
🔴 YouTube | 🔗 Show notes | 🟢 Spotify | 🟣 Apple Podcasts | ⏱️ 27 min | ✅ Time saved: 10 min
Key Takeaways
Baidu, not Waymo, is now the global robotaxi leader on most measures
Apollo Go is in 28 cities to Waymo's 14, with 23 million lifetime orders to Waymo's 20 million
Tesla launched a car with no steering wheel by deciding the steering-wheel rules did not apply to it
The US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration opened an investigation the same day
Waymo still leads the US by a wide margin on distance driven
About 4 million miles a week, against a cumulative total of less than 400,000 for Tesla
Uber is either the biggest loser or the biggest winner from self-driving, and neither host will call it
Australia has no robotaxis and no timetable, but Waymo has lobbyists and is looking for Sydney office space
One Nation wants renters and mortgage holders to divert 3% of their pay out of super for three years
Modeling says a 30-year-old who opts in pockets $6,900 and ends up $25,000 worse off at retirement
The COVID early-release scheme is the warning: 55% of the people who emptied their accounts were under 40
Australia's default super option passes every regulatory test and is still the wrong choice for a 25-year-old
APRA tested 50 MySuper products in 2026 and only one failed
Switching from balanced to high growth in your 20s is worth roughly $750K over a 40-year working life
The gap between the two options at AustralianSuper is a little over one percentage point a year
Volatility is not the same risk as permanent loss when you legally cannot touch the money for 40 years
At Australia's biggest fund the default option holds $266.3 billion and high growth holds $52.4 billion
A Mozo survey found 68% of Australians have never changed their super's investment allocation
1. A Car With No Steering Wheel
The episode opened on a running joke between the two hosts: Renehan has spent years enthusing about robotaxis on air and Leske has spent the same years refusing to care. Leske was explicit about which updates lost him — the cumulative-mileage milestones.
Leske's objection is to the drumbeat, not the technology. He said he agrees it is transformational and cannot wait to see it rolled out globally, but "200,000 in Texas, 250,000 in Texas, 300,000 in Texas" was "the update that I didn't quite need"
The update that got his attention was the Cyber Cab. Leske: "Tesla has launched the Cyber Cab, a robo taxi with no controls"
It is a two-seater built as a scaled-down Cyber Truck. Renehan described the specification as "No steering wheel, no pedals, no side mirrors, no conventional driver's seat, and a big old iPad screen for the two"
Leske's first reaction was product criticism rather than safety criticism — he thought two seats was a miss and asked why Tesla did not go to four for the extra luggage space
The launch itself was flat. Renehan: "It was a bit of a lackluster launch, I must say. Elon Musk didn't rock up. There were 2 million people waiting on X for the live stream that just never happened." What ran instead was a roughly 15-minute press event with a few Tesla executives
Renehan noted the Cyber Cab is not the first robotaxi without human controls: "It's not the first robo taxi with no human controls. That honor goes to Zoox"
2. Tesla Didn't Ask Permission
Tesla began offering Cyber Cab rides in Austin immediately, and the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration opened an investigation immediately after that. Renehan's explanation of why is the sharpest regulatory point in the episode.
Tesla went the self-certification route. Renehan: "Tesla didn't seek approval for this car. It self-certified that the Cyber Cab complies with federal safety standards"
The federal standards contain rules about steering wheels and the specifications they have to meet. Renehan's characterization of Tesla's position was that with no steering wheel fitted, the steering-wheel rules simply do not apply
Zoox did the opposite and asked. Amazon-owned Zoox — co-founded by an Australian, Renehan noted — went to the regulator for an exemption from the steering-wheel rules and got one, capped at 2,500 vehicles a year
Leske assumed regulators must be quietly preparing for this; Renehan's answer was that opening an investigation is precisely them saying they need to look at it
Waymo sidesteps the whole question because its cars are ordinary cars. Renehan: "They're just like a Jaguar that's retrofitted with Google self-driving tech" — the vehicle already meets the safety standards, and the only difference is that it drives itself
Leske raised the political variable: he would not be surprised if the Trump administration changed some of the regulatory rules. Tesla plans to put the Cyber Cab into the robotaxi service it already runs in seven US cities, including Austin, Dallas, Houston and Miami
3. Waymo Still Leads The US
Renehan then read out the US scoreboard, with a joke about not risking Leske's wrath by listing all fourteen Waymo cities.
Waymo is the clear US leader on both footprint and distance. It operates in 14 cities and drives about 4 million miles each week
Tesla is second on cities and a long way back on miles. Seven cities, and a cumulative total of less than 400,000 miles driven
Zoox is a distant third at two cities — Las Vegas and San Francisco — with a couple more on the horizon
Renehan's framing was that the gap between Waymo and Tesla is not close on the measure that matters, which is miles actually driven rather than cities announced
4. China Has Taken The Lead
This is the section Renehan built the episode around, and he hedged it carefully — the lead has flipped "by some measures," not on every one.
Baidu's Apollo Go is the global leader on footprint and orders. Renehan: "It's not about the US anymore. It's now a global race, and you flagged it." Baidu operates in 28 cities to Waymo's 14
On cumulative demand the two are close, with Baidu ahead. Waymo has taken 20 million lifetime orders — people using the app to book a ride — against 23 million for Baidu
On distance Baidu reports 350 million kilometers driven autonomously, of which 240 million were with no safety driver
It is not a China-only network. Leske assumed the 28 cities were domestic; Renehan said no, and listed Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Hong Kong, London, Seoul, Switzerland and Kazakhstan
Two other Chinese operators are worth watching, Renehan said: Pony AI and WeRide
On the consumer question, Renehan expects the no-wheel car to win. Asked which a rider would pick between a Waymo with a steering wheel and a Tesla without, he said the Cyber Cab, because watching the wheel turn and the pedals move on their own "is a bit of a workout" — though he added that people will get used to all of it
5. Uber's Two Possible Futures
Renehan flagged Uber as the company he cannot handicap. It owns no fleet, so it is buying its way into the technology through partnerships on both sides of the Pacific.
Uber has partnered with the British self-driving company Wayve in London, where it has 15 Ford Mustangs on the road
It has partnered with Pony AI to deploy 2,000 robotaxis across five European cities
It has announced further partnerships with Waymo, WeRide and Motional
Renehan will not call the outcome. "So Uber is either going to be massively disrupted by self-driving cars or a big winner of self-driving cars. It's hard to really figure out which way it's going to go"
The logic behind the hedge is that Uber's asset is aggregated demand — it has the riders — which is either the thing that survives the transition or the thing the vehicle owners disintermediate
6. Australia Is Years Behind
The hosts' recurring question is when any of this reaches Australia, and Renehan's answer was blunt: not anytime soon. The evidence he assembled is all preparation, none of it deployment.
Waymo registered waymo.com.au a decade ago, so it has clearly looked at the market
It has lobbyists in Australia working to ease the regulatory path
In October 2024 it wrote to the infrastructure minister, Catherine King, requesting a confidential briefing about its 2026 plans. Leske: "We're what, 3/4 of the way through 2026, and there hasn't been much noise"
The Australian Financial Review has reported that Waymo is looking for office space in Sydney
Leske's summary was that they are "sniffing around" but that Australia is "a bit behind the times big time"
7. One Nation's Super Pay Boost
The second half of the episode is the show's Super September franchise, and it opened on a policy proposal released earlier that week by Pauline Hanson's One Nation, called Super Pay Boost.
Leske thinks the name is marketing rather than description. He called it "a good marketing spin," because the mechanism does the opposite: "It's actually a way to reduce your super and the long-term compounding benefits and leave people worse off in retirement"
The mechanics. Australian employers pay a compulsory 12% of salary into superannuation. One Nation would let renters and mortgage holders divert 3 percentage points of that into their take-home pay, so 9% keeps going into super
It arrives net of the 15% contributions tax, which Leske said makes it a tax-advantaged pay rise as well as a diversion
It is capped at three years and is opt-in. It is not a permanent change to the contribution rate, and it does not apply automatically if One Nation comes to power
The eligible population is most of the country. Renehan said renters and mortgage holders are the majority of Australian adults, and that the numbers he had seen put it at between seven and 8 million people at a minimum
8. The Political Fight
The proposal set off an immediate political row, and both hosts read the politics as cost-of-living positioning rather than retirement policy.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers responded that Hanson wants to end superannuation as Australians know it
Opposition leader Angus Taylor dismissed the proposal for a lack of detail
Leske conceded the appeal of the pitch. The line writes itself — it is your money and you should be able to access it — and he said that is exactly what Hanson is saying
Renehan's counter is that the whole architecture of super exists to remove that choice, precisely so people cannot prioritize a short-term need over a long-term one
An economic adviser from Judo Bank supplied the line the hosts kept returning to. Renehan quoted him: "There is no example in recorded in history where we've effectively got the cost of living under control by letting people spend more"
Renehan's own policy aside was that a government worried about inflation might look at its own spending "rather than these like workarounds to try and sort of band-aid the solutions" — immediately followed by the disclaimer, "But we are not in politics. We're just two idiots that talk on a podcast"
9. What Diverting 3% Costs
The Super Members Council has modeled the proposal, and the two examples Leske and Renehan used are the numbers that make the case.
A typical 30-year-old who opts in pockets $6,900 over the three years and forfeits more than $18,000 of compound interest across the rest of their working life — leaving them $25,000 worse off at retirement, the withdrawal plus the returns it would have earned
The damage does not stop at the young. Renehan cited the council's older case: someone earning $95,000 a year with $150,000 already in super at age 50 would reach retirement age $27,000 worse off
Leske added a second-order effect the modeling does not capture. Putting more money in people's pockets leads to more spending, which pushes up inflation — so a policy sold as cost-of-living relief works against the cost of living
Both hosts' larger worry is precedent rather than arithmetic. Leske called it the thin edge of the wedge and asked the obvious follow-on question: "Would this just all of a sudden extend from three years to six years to 10 years?" Renehan's version was that the eligibility test could widen from renters and mortgage holders to general cost-of-living pressure
Leske's closing argument was comparative. Compulsory super is a safety net most countries do not have, and "I think stuffing with that is so dangerous"
10. The COVID Precedent
Leske's evidence that early access does not go the way its advocates expect is Australia's own COVID-era early-release scheme, and the demographic split is the part that lands.
Leske: "Total of 2.6 million people withdrew more than $38 billion from their super accounts during COVID"
Approximately 725,000 accounts were emptied completely
The withdrawals skewed young. About a third of the largest applicants were in their 30s and 22% were in their 20s — so 55% were under 40
Renehan's summary of the pattern: the people with the most to gain from decades of compounding were the ones who took the most out
Leske expects the same selection effect here. "This is not going to be some, you know, cashed up boomers taking 3% out. It's going to be people in their 20s and 30s"
11. The Default Option Myth
After the break the hosts ran the third installment of their Super September myth series: the default investment option is good enough. Their verdict, eventually, was partially true.
The default holds a huge share of the national pool. As of June 2025, MySuper options held roughly 28% of all super assets — more than $1.2 trillion across more than 15 million member accounts
Renehan was careful not to attack it. "It's designed to be simple, diversified, relatively low cost," and it is explicitly built for the majority of people who do not want to think about it
Defaults now come in two shapes. Either a balanced fund holding a mix of shares, property, bonds and cash, or a life-cycle option that starts growth-heavy in your 20s, 30s and 40s and adds defensive assets through your 50s and 60s
About 40% of MySuper default products now use the life-cycle strategy, which Renehan called a good thing
The regulatory guard rails work. Under the Your Future, Your Super reforms, APRA assessed 50 MySuper products in 2026 and only one failed the performance test
That is exactly why the myth persists, Renehan said — the products pass, 40% are age-adjusted, and people conclude there is nothing left to do
The rebuttal is that passing is not optimizing. Renehan: "The default option may be good enough because it stops you making a disastrous decision, but that doesn't mean it's the best decision for your circumstances" — and that gap is widest for the young
12. One Toggle, $750K
The worked example is the centerpiece of the segment. The hosts used AustralianSuper because of its size, comparing its default balanced option against its high growth option.
The performance gap is a little over one percentage point a year. Over the past 10 years the balanced option returned 8.2% a year and high growth returned 9.35% a year
The contribution base. On the median Australian weekly wage of $1,425, a 12% contribution less the 15% contributions tax puts $145 a week into super
Over 20 years that is $150,800 contributed. At 8.2% it compounds to just shy of $353,000; at 9.35% it is a scratch over $400,000. Renehan put the difference at $48,500 — "Another 50 grand in retirement, that would help," Leske said
Over 40 years — the length of most working lives — the same switch produces $2.79 million at 9.35%, roughly three-quarters of a million dollars more than the balanced option delivers over the same period
The only input that changed is the investment option. Renehan: "All from logging in once" in your 20s and toggling one switch
Leske's response is the episode's title: "What would you do for 750 grand?" Renehan: "A lot more than that. Big time"
13. Volatility Is Not Risk
The last stretch is the behavioral argument, and it is where Renehan makes his strongest claim: the industry has taught savers to fear the wrong thing.
Engagement is the binding constraint. Colonial First State found that fewer than half of Australians have actively chosen how their super fund is invested, and nearly one in three do not know how it is invested at all
A Mozo survey of more than 2,000 Australians found 68% had never changed their super's investment allocation
The money follows the inertia. As of 31 July 2026, AustralianSuper's balanced option — its default — held $266.3 billion of member money against $52.4 billion in high growth
Renehan understands the fear and thinks it is misdirected. People avoid high growth because it is marketed as riskier and the default as safer, but "we measure risk as volatility," and volatility is a different thing from permanently losing money
Leske's version is the lock-up. "But like as a 20-year-old, you can't touch this. No matter what happens in markets, you can't touch it" — Renehan: "You have no choice but to ride out the volatility"
Renehan put the obligation on the industry. "I also think it's our job, it's advisers jobs and it's super fund's jobs to actually educate people around why high growth makes sense, why volatility isn't the same as actually risking losing your money permanently"
The action item is deliberately small. Leske: "Log in, check how you're invested." If it is a life-cycle product, that is fine; if it is a default balanced option, weigh it against how long you have before you can touch the money
The verdict on the myth was a qualified yes. Leske called it "partially true, but could be better," and Renehan agreed the default will not lead anyone disastrously wrong at a large fund — it is just more conservative than a long horizon warrants
Bonus Insights
The framing device for the whole first half was whether Leske could be made to care. Renehan checked in twice mid-story — "Interested in the story so far?" — and Leske's answers ("It's piqued my interest") became the segment's structure
Renehan's running gag is that Leske laughs whenever he reads a URL out loud on air, so he now sends listeners to the show notes instead
The hosts' self-description is worth keeping. On offering a view about government spending and inflation, Renehan cut himself off with "But we are not in politics. We're just two idiots that talk on a podcast"
Leske's parting line was the closest the episode came to a thesis. "But hey, in life, we're not striving for good enough" — delete the second word, he said, and get the investment option right
The single decision that matters most in Australian superannuation is not which fund you are with but which investment option inside it you are in — and at Australia's largest fund, the option most members never actively chose still holds the overwhelming majority of the money.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
Tesla (Launched the Cyber Cab, a two-seat robotaxi with no steering wheel, pedals, side mirrors or driver's seat; self-certified it against federal safety standards and drew an NHTSA investigation the same day)
Waymo (The US leader — 14 cities, about 4 million miles a week, 20 million lifetime orders. Registered waymo.com.au a decade ago, has Australian lobbyists and is reportedly hunting for Sydney office space)
Zoox (Amazon-owned, co-founded by an Australian. The first robotaxi without human controls, and the one that asked the regulator for a steering-wheel exemption rather than self-certifying — granted, capped at 2,500 vehicles a year)
Baidu and its Apollo Go autonomous arm (Renehan's pick as the global leader: 28 cities, 23 million lifetime orders, 350 million km driven autonomously and 240 million with no safety driver, including Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Hong Kong, London, Seoul, Switzerland and Kazakhstan)
Pony AI and WeRide (The other two Chinese operators Renehan says are worth watching; Pony AI is also Uber's partner for 2,000 robotaxis across five European cities)
Uber (Owns no fleet and is partnering with everyone — Wayve, Pony AI, Waymo, WeRide and Motional. Renehan will not say whether it is disrupted by self-driving or the winner from it)
Wayve (The British self-driving company running 15 Ford Mustangs with Uber in London)
Motional (Named as another of Uber's self-driving partners)
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (Opened its Cyber Cab investigation the day Tesla started carrying passengers in Austin; the federal standards it enforces assume a steering wheel, pedals, mirrors and a human driver)
One Nation (Pauline Hanson's party, whose Super Pay Boost proposal would let renters and mortgage holders divert 3 percentage points of the compulsory 12% super contribution into take-home pay for three years)
AustralianSuper (The comparison the hosts used: balanced returned 8.2% a year over 10 years and holds $266.3 billion; high growth returned 9.35% and holds $52.4 billion)
Judo Bank (Its economic adviser supplied the line the hosts leaned on — no cost-of-living problem has ever been solved by letting people spend more)
Books & Resources Mentioned
Super Members Council modeling on Super Pay Boost (The source of both worked cases: a 30-year-old $25,000 worse off at retirement, and a 50-year-old on $95,000 with $150,000 in super $27,000 worse off)
APRA's annual superannuation performance test (Introduced by the Your Future, Your Super reforms; 50 MySuper products assessed in 2026 and only one failed)
Colonial First State research on super engagement (Fewer than half of Australians have actively chosen how their super is invested, and nearly one in three do not know how it is invested)
Mozo survey of more than 2,000 Australians (68% had never changed their super's investment allocation)
The Australian Financial Review (Reported that Waymo is looking for office space in Sydney)
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