Gene Munster went into Apple's iPhone Duo event expecting the foldable to account for about 5% of iPhone revenue, and came out estimating 10%.
Apple's fit and finish changed his mind about a product category he had ranked as one of his least important topics going in.
"If you put that together, I think this device is actually going to probably account for 10% of overall iPhone revenue."
Munster is managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management and had written that he expects Apple to outperform big tech over the following week.
I listened to the full segment so you can skip it.
Here are the 3 takeaways that matter.
👤 Guest: Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management
🎙️ Hosts: Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern, who anchor Bloomberg Surveillance on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6 to 9 a.m. Eastern
📰 Published: 10 September 2026 on the Bloomberg Surveillance YouTube channel
🔴 YouTube | ⏱️ 20 min
Key Takeaways
Munster doubled his iPhone Duo revenue estimate, from about 5% to 10% of iPhone revenue, after seeing the device
He had ranked the foldable as only his "fourth or fifth most important topic" going into the event
A screen 50% bigger than the Pro Max opens a new canvas for agentic apps, which he ties directly to Apple's AI positioning
He cited Meta's 7% jump the same day on its own agent announcements as evidence of where the market's attention already is
Samsung is the mathematical competitor, but he says the real edge is how tightly Apple's products fit together
Samsung holds about 60% of global smartphone share against the iPhone's "just over 20%"
1. Why the Estimate Doubled
Asked what people are missing about the iPhone Duo's significance, Munster started with demand rather than the device itself.
His starting premise is that content demand has no ceiling. "I think people are missing that the consumer demand for content from the time you get up in the morning to the time you go to bed is insatiable." Bigger screens, he said, make those experiences richer even though most people say up front they don't want a foldable phone
He credited Bloomberg's own reporting for removing the surprise on specs and price. "We knew what was going to happen. Credit Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. I mean, just his coverage. And predicting what's going to happen is spectacular."
He had ranked the category low going in. "This is probably my fourth or fifth most important topic, the foldable foam, because I just didn't think it was going to resonate."
What changed his mind was the build quality itself. "The piece that I think people are missing, and I missed initially, was that if you look at the fit and finish of this, the thickness, the quality, the crease, that bend in the middle, it's very hard to pick up on. If you put that together, I think this device is actually going to probably account for 10% of overall iPhone revenue. Now, going into the event, I thought it was going to be something like 5%."
He framed it as Apple's most significant product moment in a decade. "It's been a decade since they've come out with a new product that was AirPods back in December of 16 that people really cared about. Vision Pro didn't do that. And so that's why I think that this is such a big deal, not only for the numbers, but also for the innovation side."
2. A Bigger Canvas for Agents
Asked how the device fits into Apple's future software plans, Munster linked the larger screen directly to agentic AI.
The size itself is the unlock. "A new form factor, and really what this is is 50% bigger than the largest current, the Pro Max, that opens up kind of a new canvas for app developers."
He ties that to where AI is heading next. "These new applications are going to become increasingly agentic. And that's this whole concept of personalized AI, the ability of the machine to understand personal context, but also do work for you."
A same-day market move is his evidence. "That's why Meta was up 7% yesterday as they talked about these agents that actually get things done."
His conclusion is that Apple, not a pure AI company, ends up best positioned. "I think what it positions Apple is to be the best positioned company when it comes to personalized AI, a whole theme that really hasn't started. What that means is people are going to buy more Apple devices and probably pay more for apps longer term."
3. The Real Rival Isn't Samsung
Asked whether the keynote marked a genuine John Ternus era versus a continuation of Tim Cook's Apple, Munster drew a distinction between the product and the moment.
The product itself predates Ternus. "This was a Tim Cook product. I mean, this is something that they'd been working on for the past decade." What stood out instead was how Ternus opened the event by emphasizing future products while downplaying what was actually being announced
He again credited Gurman's track record. "Go back and credit Mark Gurman here, just to put in a perspective how good he is, is that everything that was announced yesterday he predicted, but he's also gone out and predicted what John is going to announce next year and even in 2028."
On competition, he separated the market-share answer from the real one. "Mathematically, it's Samsung. If you look at the global market share, the iPhone's just over 20%, and Samsung has about 60%."
But the moat he actually credits is integration. "If you look at just how tightly their products are together, yes, Samsung has... individual products that line up with what Apple does, but none of them really fit together as well as Apple does, and then you put the services on." He added: "Apple kind of stands alone when it comes to kind of fitting all this together."
Bonus Insights
This is Munster's own segment of a longer Bloomberg Surveillance episode that also carried separate interviews with RBC's Mike Reid on the Fed and PIMCO's Libby Cantrill on the fiscal outlook, each written up on its own
Munster's bottom line is that the iPhone Duo's build quality changed his own numbers mid-event, and that the bigger story is less about foldables than about Apple positioning itself as the best-integrated home for agentic AI.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
Apple (Its iPhone Duo launch is the subject of the whole segment, and Munster raised his revenue estimate for it from 5% to 10% of iPhone sales)
Samsung (Holds about 60% of global smartphone share against the iPhone's roughly 20%, though Munster says its products don't integrate as tightly as Apple's)
Meta (Up 7% the same day on its own agentic-AI announcements, which Munster cites as evidence of where investor attention already sits)
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