OpenAI said it has poached 400 Apple employees over the past year, which Gene Munster put at about 3% of the people who work at Apple Park.
The host offered the other reading of those departures, that they free John Ternus to bring in his own people on his first day as chief executive. Munster made holding on to staff the job that comes before the products.
"But really the substance of his first day to answer your question is around employee retention."
Munster spent 21 years at Piper Jaffray as a senior equity research analyst covering Apple before co-founding Deepwater Asset Management, and the pricing answer he gave here runs off his own firm's survey numbers rather than a published estimate.
I listened to the full segment so you can skip it.
Here are the 4 takeaways that matter.
👤 Guest: Gene Munster, co-founder and managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, who covered Apple, Amazon, Google and Facebook as a senior equity research analyst during 21 years at Piper Jaffray
📰 Published: 1 September 2026 on YouTube (CNBC Television)
🔴 YouTube | 🟣 Apple Podcasts | 🔗 Episode page | ⏱️ 5 min
Key Takeaways
Retention, not products, is what Munster says the new chief executive's first day was really about OpenAI said it poached 400 Apple employees, about 3% of the staff at Apple Park, over the past year
A 15% iPhone price increase reaches most American buyers as $3 to $5 a month More than three quarters of US iPhone owners buy the phone on a monthly plan, on Deepwater's own numbers
The foldable phone matters for what it does to the rest of the price range, not for its own unit share Munster expects foldables to be a very small percentage of iPhones sold
Splitting the launch between fall and spring is why he expects Apple to beat estimates in the June quarter
The App Store is where AI would show up in services, and it is just over a third of services revenue
1. The product cycle is working
The host set the segment up around artificial intelligence. Ternus ran hardware at Apple before taking the top job, and the host said he would have to convince Wall Street the company can keep up with advances in AI, with Apple's product event a week away.
Munster said the first day went well and pointed at the share price: the market was down and Apple was up a couple of percent
He credited the new chief executive's letter to staff for part of that move. "And I think that came in part from his letter to employees this morning where we talked about the new products next week, but also said, and I quote, he's more excited about the products that come after what we're going to see next week." He called that line "music to Apple's investors ears"
Munster said Ternus takes over with the product cycle already working in his favor. "But what he is inheriting is first and foremost is a strong hand here."
The foldable phone is in that hand for what it does to the rest of the range rather than for its own volume. "What's important about that foldable phone is less about what percentage of iPhones that are going to be foldable. That number will be very small. It's more about how they are kind of squeezing the prices higher across the board." The highest-priced phone is there to draw buyers up into more expensive models
The other half of it is the voice assistant. "But also, he's coming off of a strong beta of the new Siri AI." Munster's condition on that was explicit: assuming the beta is going really well, and assuming it reaches US users this year
2. Retention is job number one
Asked what he made of day one, Munster answered with the workforce rather than the product line.
He made employee retention the first thing Ternus has to fix. "But really the substance of his first day to answer your question is around employee retention." He linked the two directly: talking up the products that are coming is how Apple holds on to the engineers who build them
The number he used came from OpenAI rather than from Apple. "OpenAI last night made this comment that they've poached 400 Apple employees. That's about 3% of the employees at Apple Park over the past year."
His statement of the problem was about the place rather than the pay. "And so that, I think is first and foremost amongst his challenges, is really making sure that Apple is an amazing place, continues to be a great place that draws the best talent."
The host put the opposite reading to him. "I've talked to some other people that say it's kind of clearing the decks, allowing John Ternus to bring in his own people." He then moved the conversation to pricing rather than pressing the point
3. A 15% rise is $3–5 a month
The host asked how Ternus would handle affordability, raising the price of memory chips as well as the price of the devices themselves.
Munster's answer starts with how Americans pay for a phone. "So the affordable issue comes down to the percentage of iPhones, at least we think in the US that are purchased on a subscription basis, and that based on our numbers, it's more than three quarters of people who own iPhones buy them on a monthly basis."
He is working from a 15% increase next week, and spread over a monthly plan that is a few dollars. "And if we look at a 15% price increase on iPhone coming next week, which I think is probably a good benchmark, it really amounts to about 3 to $5 per month for the average person." "And so the reality is, is that if you ask a typical person to show up with another couple hundred dollars for a phone, that will not be greeted warmly, if you say it is a small amount every month, that's obviously more acceptable."
The evidence he offered that buyers keep paying is the upgrade rate. "And I think overwhelmingly Apple has had 90% plus upgrade rates for the better part of the last decade."
He expects Apple to come in above estimates in two quarters rather than one. "Frank, where it all comes together is I think Apple is going to be in a great place to exceed estimates, not only in the December quarter, but also in June of next year." The reason for the second one is the calendar: Apple is splitting the upgrade cycle, with a couple of phones this fall and a couple in the spring, which he said lifts the June numbers against what analysts expect
4. AI apps drive services next
The host said services revenue is now about 27% of Apple's total, asked whether AI takes it to 32%, and asked what that would do to the multiple.
Munster answered with a warning before the upside. "So I just want to kind of highlight there's a headwind to the services business." The headwind is in how Apple delivers the products and in letting app developers move in other directions
Set that aside, he said, and what AI could do to services is significant, and he put the moment it lands at Apple's next developers conference. "So if we fast forward nine months from now, it's going to be all about developers building AI empowered apps." That is the Worldwide Developers Conference, nine months out, and building AI apps on Apple's platform is what he expects the company to push
The route from AI apps to revenue runs through the store. "The App Store accounts for just over a third of the total services revenue."
The 32% figure belonged to the host's question. Munster did not put a number on where the services share goes, and did not reach the multiple
Bonus Insights
The host noted that the new chief executive was posting on social media on his first day. "By the way, Ternus he's tweeting, he's tweeting. He's trying to get out there with the people."
The host also said Tim Cook, who has just left the chief executive's job, is to be talking to policymakers around the world
Munster's bottom line is that Ternus inherits a working product cycle — a foldable phone that pulls the whole price range up, a Siri beta he says is going well, and upgrade rates above 90% — and that the thing that decides how long it keeps working is whether Apple can stop its engineers leaving.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
Apple (The subject throughout: a new chief executive on day one, a product event a week away, and shares up a couple of percent on a down day)
OpenAI (Said it had poached 400 Apple employees over the past year, which Munster put at about 3% of the staff at Apple Park)
iPhone (More than three quarters of US owners buy it on a monthly plan; a foldable model is coming, and Munster expects a 15% price increase)
Siri (The new AI version is in beta, and Munster treats a US rollout this year as part of what Ternus inherits)
App Store (Just over a third of Apple's total services revenue, and the route by which AI-built apps would reach the services line)
Deepwater Asset Management (Munster's firm, whose own survey numbers are behind the claim about how Americans pay for iPhones)
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