Gil Luria said Adobe has been categorized as a loser from artificial intelligence, and that a quarter in line with expectations gives nobody a reason to change their mind.
Adobe's third quarter was slightly above expectations, with subscription revenue and annual recurring revenue small beats and fourth-quarter guidance inside the company's own range. Luria's point is that none of it addresses the question investors are actually asking, and that the fix is a growth plan rather than an AI announcement.
"Well, that's the problem. The burden of proof is on Adobe. Adobe has been categorized as an AI loser, and they're not going to escape that by reporting in-line results."
Luria is Head of Technology Research at D.A. Davidson and covers both Adobe and Oracle, which reported the same afternoon.
I listened to the full segment so you can skip it.
Here are the 4 calls that matter.
👤 Guest: Gil Luria, Head of Technology Research at D.A. Davidson
🎙️ Hosts: CNBC's Closing Bell Overtime anchors, Melissa Lee and Michael Santoli
📰 Published: 10 September 2026 on CNBC's Closing Bell Overtime
🟣 Apple Podcasts | 🔗 Episode page | ⏱️ 5 min
Key Takeaways
Steady in-line results used to be Adobe's selling point and are now its problem, because the burden of proof has shifted
Promoting an internal candidate three months after a chief executive stepped down tells investors the external search failed
The market's verdict is the multiple: 10 to 12 times, which is what it pays for companies it expects to stop growing
His fix is accretive acquisitions and a frontier-lab partnership, not an AI product launch
On Oracle he says the stock deserved more than a 7% move, because every execution question was answered
1. The Burden Of Proof
The desk noted that all of Adobe's results and guidance landed in the zone, which used to be a good thing for a company like this.
Luria said that is precisely the problem. "Well, that's the problem. The burden of proof is on Adobe. Adobe has been categorized as an AI loser, and they're not going to escape that by reporting in-line results."
In-line does not answer the question being asked. In his words, reporting in line does not give anybody a reason to believe Adobe will not be a victim of better AI going forward
He was careful about where the problem actually sits. Adobe is not, on his account, losing much share; the issue is perception attached to a growth rate
2. A CEO Hired Internally
Before the numbers, Luria pointed at the management change.
The sequence he described was a chief executive stepping down three months ago and a successor announced from inside. "They had one CEO step down three months ago"
His reading of the internal promotion was unsparing. The message to investors, he said, is "we looked externally and we couldn't find anybody. That's not great."
It also creates the opportunity. "This is his chance. Today is his chance to communicate a new plan that will change Adobe's trajectory."
3. What A New Plan Looks Like
Asked whether there is a menu of actions available, Luria gave two concrete ones.
The requirement comes first, and it is not about AI. "They need a new plan for how they're going to accelerate growth and they need to accelerate growth." And: "All software companies are adapting to AI. Adobe is actually not that different, it's just that the market perceives them as a loser."
The first action is buying growth. Software has recovered, he said, but plenty of software companies still trade at very low multiples and plenty of private ones cannot go public — so financially accretive acquisitions, ones that add to earnings, are a route to faster growth
The second is a partnership with a frontier AI lab. His precedent was Salesforce: "One deal with Anthropic changed Salesforce's stock trajectory very dramatically." If Adobe can find its version of that, he said, the perception could change
The consequence of doing neither is the multiple. Without a growth plan the stock keeps trading at 10 to 12 times, which is what the market pays for companies it expects to slow or shrink
4. Oracle Executed
The desk asked whether Oracle's quarter justified the roughly 7% after-hours move, since Luria covers that too.
His answer was that it justified more. "It's even better than that because they executed" — against a list of questions about whether the company could build data centers, open them and finance them
The growth path is what he pointed at. "Their guidance for this year is for 34% growth. Last quarter they grew 20%. This quarter they grew 29%. That's a step in the right direction."
His complaint is what the market refuses to credit. "And that's important because Oracle does not get credit for its AI compute backlog. It has the biggest backlog with Microsoft." On his account it carries more backlog than Amazon or Google, while unprofitable newer entrants are valued generously
Luria's bottom line is that Adobe's problem is a growth rate the market has already priced as terminal, and that the new chief executive has one conference call to change the story.
Bonus Insights
The competitive detail he offered runs against the standard Adobe bear case. "Companies like Canva and Figma, the very low end, are actually starting to sputter." Adobe is pushing back on them, and what is missing is evidence that its own business keeps growing
His framing of what a valuation of 10 to 12 times means is a useful piece of translation: it is not a judgement about AI, it is what the market pays for a company it thinks is about to slow down or start declining
On Adobe's own AI position he was neutral rather than negative. Every software company is adapting to the technology, and he does not think Adobe is unusual in that respect
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