The 10-year Treasury topped 4.90% and crude topped $100 a barrel on the same day the S&P 500 sat at 7,600, and CNBC's Investment Committee split three ways on what that means.
Stephanie Link stayed bullish, pointing to bank executives' upbeat read on credit quality; Malcolm Ethridge said nothing new is actually happening beyond September seasonality; and Bill Baruch argued the market has priced in too much of a chance the Fed hikes at all.
"I maintain that a 70% probability the Fed hikes next week is too high."
Scott Wapner hosted Link, Ethridge, Baruch and Josh Brown for the hour, with Brown also walking through two sells, a purchase, and a stock he's watching break out.
I listened to the full segment so you can skip it.
Here are the 6 takeaways that matter.
👤 Hosts: Scott Wapner, anchor of CNBC's Halftime Report
👥 Also on: Stephanie Link, Chief Investment Strategist at Hightower Advisors; Malcolm Ethridge, Managing Partner at Capital Area Planning Group; Bill Baruch, President of Blue Line Capital; Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management
📰 Published: 10 September 2026, on the Halftime Report podcast feed
🟣 Apple Podcasts | ⏱️ 44 min | ✅ Time saved: 37 min
Key Takeaways
Bill Baruch says a 70% priced-in probability of a Fed hike next week is too high
He calls Fed Chair Warsh's early hawkishness a "Kansas City shuffle" — a bait-and-switch that may not end in a hike at all
Stephanie Link stayed bullish on bank CEOs' own read of the consumer, not on sentiment surveys
Wells Fargo and Bank of America both flagged strong credit quality and improving profitability on air the day before
Malcolm Ethridge says nothing has actually changed except the calendar
The 10-year near 5%, oil above $100 and the Strait of Hormuz disruption have all been present for months; only September seasonality is new
Consumer spending keeps rising even as consumers say they're unhappy
American Express US spend up 11%, Capital One purchase volumes up 26%, Bank of America card spend up 4%, all last quarter
Josh Brown sold Marriott and Citizens Financial to protect gains, not because the businesses changed
Both were trades, not investments, and he moves his stops up rather than let a winner round-trip into a loss
ServiceTitan swung from 110 to 56 to 105 and back to 56 in 90 days on its forced AI-platform migration
It beat on revenue and earnings but missed on EBITDA because it isn't charging customers to move them onto its new AI platform, Max
1. Oil, Yields and September
Wapner opened with the market backdrop: the 10-year Treasury topping 4.90%, crude above $100, the XLE at a new high, and homebuilders weak as yields backed up.
"As oil goes up, yields go up, and stocks remain challenged," Wapner said, framing the day's move
Stephanie Link said hotter PPI components pointed to a hotter core PCE reading, but noted September is historically the worst month for the S&P 500, averaging a 2.7% decline, with October and November typically the two best months that follow
She cited Wells Fargo's and Bank of America's CEOs, who both spoke on CNBC the day before about strong consumer spending at the high and low end, excellent credit quality, abundant M&A activity, and improving profitability
She also pointed to tight credit-default-swap spreads as a sign markets aren't pricing real stress
2. Three Views On the Fed
The panel split on how much the recent volatility actually matters.
Malcolm Ethridge said September seasonality explains most of the negative sentiment, and that nothing structurally new has emerged: the 10-year near 5%, oil above $100, and the Strait of Hormuz disruption have all been present for months, and AI-driven earnings growth remains the market's real anchor
Bill Baruch argued the Fed's own signaling doesn't add up to as high a hike probability as the market has priced
"I maintain that a 70% probability the Fed hikes next week is too high. I don't think Warsh is going to move through with the hike."
He called the pattern a "Kansas City shuffle" — early hawkish signaling that may be a bait-and-switch — and cited former Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester's on-air comment that Warsh may not have the votes to hike
He noted the 10-year and 30-year Treasury futures have broken to local lows, testing 2023 levels, alongside crude above $100 — "a really volatile environment"
3. The Consumer Keeps Spending
Wapner pressed Baruch on whether strength in discretionary and industrial stocks is justified given rate pressure. Baruch said he's overweight industrials and selective in discretionary, in part because of housing weakness, but the underlying consumer data still looks strong.
American Express US spend was up 11% last quarter; Capital One purchase volumes were up 26%; Bank of America credit-card spend was up 4%, according to Baruch, citing Brian Moynihan's comments the day before
He pointed to labor-market data as the reason: Challenger Gray layoffs are down 41% year to date and JOLTS job openings are up 3% year to date, evidence people are still spending because they're still employed
4. Brown's Two Sells
Wapner turned to Josh Brown's Trade Tracker, starting with ServiceTitan, which he owns.
ServiceTitan beat on 21% revenue growth and beat on earnings but missed on EBITDA, because it isn't charging customers a fee to migrate them onto its new AI platform, Max, even though roughly 700 locations have already switched
The stock swung from 110 to a low of 56 this summer, back to 105, and down to 56 again — all within 90 days — which Brown attributed to its small market cap and almost nonexistent institutional ownership
He sold both Marriott and Citizens Financial, up 19% year to date, purely on trade discipline: "Marriott worked, and then the question is, like, are you in it for a trade or an investment?" He moves his stops up as a position works so a reversal can't erase the gain, rather than holding on fundamentals once a technical trade has already worked
Separately, Uber rose more than 2.5% after CEO Dara Khosrowshahi reportedly bought 141,000 shares personally, and the company announced a new autonomous-taxi partnership with WeRide in Spain
5. The Restaurant Brands Setup
Presenting his "Best Stocks in the Market" segment, Brown said Restaurant Brands International is one he's actually bought, after first flagging it in April at $75.
US comparable sales grew 8.5% in the second quarter, more than nine points ahead of the overall quick-service industry, and the company passed Wendy's to become the number-two burger brand in North America, with 21 straight quarters of positive international comps
Its last earnings report showed $1.07 in earnings per share, an 11th consecutive dividend raise to $2.60, and Pershing Square added 14% more shares to its stake in its second-quarter 13F filing
He described a cup-and-handle chart pattern with $82 as the breakout level, buying now with a stop near $73 (recent support) and a buy-stop-limit order at 82.50 to catch the breakout
He credited part of the turnaround to Burger King fixing its chicken nuggets, which he called as significant an overhang removed as "China revenue for Nvidia"
6. Starbucks, Two Years In
Wapner asked Stephanie Link to assess Brian Niccol's first two years running Starbucks, noting the stock is up only 10% in his tenure.
Link said the real story is margin expansion ahead: operating margins are set to rise from 11.7% this year toward roughly 15%, on mid-single-digit traffic growth and comps she expects to grow 5% next year and about 4% in 2028 — implying roughly $6 a share in eventual earnings power
Josh Brown added that partner (employee) turnover has fallen to a record low under 50%, and that global comps have swung from -7% to +8% since Niccol took over, even though the stock isn't currently on his Best Stocks list
Bonus Insights
On the Final Trades segment, Josh Brown named Snowflake ("the rally is not over"), Bill Baruch named Tempus AI (a small healthcare-technology company his firm started a position in the prior week), and Malcolm Ethridge named Chubb, citing AI's effect on the insurer — the transcript cuts off before Stephanie Link's final trade airs
Diana Olick's mortgage-rate report was referenced as the reason homebuilders traded weaker on the day, though its figures weren't part of this capture
The panel's shared bottom line is that the macro backdrop — high oil, rising yields, September seasonality — is real, but none of the four panelists changed their underlying view that AI-driven earnings growth is still what the market is trading on.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
ServiceTitan (Software company whose stock swung from 110 to 56 to 105 to 56 in 90 days as it migrates customers to its AI platform, Max, without charging a transition fee)
Marriott International and Citizens Financial Group (Two of Brown's sells — both trades that had worked and were exited on discipline, not on any change to the businesses)
Uber (Rose over 2.5% after CEO Dara Khosrowshahi reportedly bought 141,000 shares personally and the company announced an autonomous-taxi partnership with WeRide in Spain)
Restaurant Brands International (Brown's active buy, on an 8.5% US comp-sales quarter and a chart setup he's trading with an $82 breakout level)
Starbucks (Two years into Brian Niccol's turnaround; Link expects margins to expand from 11.7% toward 15%)
Snowflake, Tempus AI and Chubb (The panel's final trades of the segment)
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