Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz within days of the war starting on 28 February, and oil moved. Six months on, Jack Keane says the ships are getting through again — at night, hugging the Omani shoreline, under aviation cover — and that Tehran fired missiles at the strait precisely because the leverage is slipping away.
"Iran's conclusion there is they're losing this strategic asset because it's been their leverage point"
Keane was on air relaying Admiral Cooper's own survey of where the Gulf's oil and gas infrastructure sits and how well it is defended, which is the assessment that decides whether the United States can widen the war without losing Saudi and Emirati production.
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Here are the 7 takeaways that matter.
👤 Guest: Jack Keane, the retired general Fox Business brings on for military analysis, who relayed Admiral Cooper's assessments of the Strait of Hormuz and of Gulf oil and gas defenses
🎙️ Host: David Asman, guest-hosting Kudlow for Larry Kudlow
📰 Published: 31 August 2026 on Fox Business, and on the Kudlow podcast feed
🟣 Apple Podcasts | ⏱️ 46 min
Key Takeaways
The commander in the Gulf can now fire first without asking
Keane says preemption authority is what stopped the mine-laying operation before it happened
Hormuz has stopped working as Iranian leverage, and that is why the missiles flew
Traffic is up, moving at night and close to the Omani shore under aviation cover
Gulf states can defend their own oil and gas better than the US can defend itself
He says the Saudis and the UAE have more batteries protecting that infrastructure than America has
Bessent's aim is collapse, not a negotiated settlement, and Keane prefers it that way
A deal would mean financing Iran's recovery
Tehran's plan is to outlast the administration and hope the midterms end the war
Neither side knows how much pressure it would take to make Iran capitulate
Keane expects any strike to go well beyond Kharg Island to all of Iran's energy and economic resources
1. Preemption Authority
Asman opened on the first US strikes on Iran in a month, on Larak Island, where Central Command said Iranian forces were preparing to launch mines into the Strait of Hormuz, and on Iran's retaliation against US bases in Jordan.
The strike happened because the commander did not have to ask. "Admiral Cooper has what we call in the military preemption authority" — if he sees Iran preparing to launch rockets and missiles, or to lay mines, he can act to stop it happening
The target area was one the US had just cleared. Keane said the mines were likely bound for the central corridor, which had only just been swept
What it demonstrates is intelligence and speed. He described the intelligence and the quick response by US teams as producing very effective results
2. Hormuz Is Iran's Leverage
Keane's explanation of the attack was economic rather than military.
The timeline he gave starts at the beginning of the war. "Iran does feel the pressure of the Strait of Hormuz. This has become a strategic asset for them when they imposed their will on the ship owners back on March 2."
"War began February 28." Within days the strait was shut and energy prices spiked
The April opening went nowhere. He said Trump made a decision on 7 April when Iran held out what he called a fig leaf, the United States took it, and four months later there is no deal over the strait
The pressure since has been naval. "We imposed a naval blockade a week after the cease-fire."
3. Ships Move at Night Now
The trend in the strait, on Keane's account, has turned.
"So what is happening now in the straits is the trend, David, has been positive and the fact the ships are increasing at night, passing through most of it close to the shoreline of Oman"
An island there provides shielding, and aviation cover escorts the ships through at night
That is what makes the missile launches legible. "Iran's conclusion there is they're losing this strategic asset because it's been their leverage point", and the missiles were another device to disrupt transit
4. Gulf Oil Defenses Hold
The second Iranian pressure point is a threat against Saudi and Gulf energy infrastructure, and Keane said it has worked on Washington.
The threat has already stopped US operations three times. He said that on three occasions he is aware of, the United States stood down from military operations on the counsel of the Gulf oil states, which claim Iran will devastate their infrastructure
Admiral Cooper went and looked. Keane said Cooper visited every place the oil and gas infrastructure sits, and reported that the United States can help defend it and that much of it those states can defend themselves, very adequately
The comparison he drew was unflattering to the United States. Keane said the Saudis and the UAE have more batteries protecting their oil and gas infrastructure than America has
One country needs some help, he said, and the United States can shore that up while keeping what he called exquisite offensive capability in the hands of its troops in the region
5. Bessent's Objective
Asman asked whether Keane agreed with Larry Kudlow that Scott Bessent is the best wartime Treasury secretary since the Second World War.
He declined the superlative and endorsed the substance. Keane said he could not make that statement because he does not know all the secretaries through the years the way Kudlow does, but called Bessent top drawer, brilliant, an effective leader with huge determination
The sanctions campaign is unlike anything he has seen. "It's more comprehensive than anything I've ever seen." He added that it comes down to enforcement, as it always does, and that Bessent has the team for it
The objective is collapse, not a deal, and Keane approves. "His objective here is to force an economic collapse and I like that objective."
His reason is what a settlement would cost: forcing negotiations means that if a deal is struck, the United States winds up financing Iran's recovery
6. Iran Bets on the Midterms
Asman put it to Keane that Iran's leadership does not care about its own population, citing people unable to get fuel or medicine and eight missiles fired at US service members in Jordan.
Keane agreed and gave the regime's own calculation. "They don't care about the suffering of their people." What they do care about is holding together the leadership infrastructure that sustains the regime
He said unpaid wages and other pressures may open fissures there, and that he hopes the CIA is working to widen them
The strategy is to wait out the administration. "In their mindset they believe they can outlast this administration" and apply political pressure, in the hope that Democrats win the midterm election and shut the war down
He was explicit that the breaking point is unknown. Nobody knows, and the Iranians do not know themselves, what pressure it would take to make them stop and capitulate — but he said the pressure is the right approach
His own forecast pairs the two instruments. "My gut feeling is it would likely take a combination of what Secretary Bessent is doing and some military action"
7. Bigger Than Kharg Island
Asman asked whether military action would include a strike on Kharg Island, where Iran's oil reserves are held, and referred to an AI-generated video the president had posted on Truth Social showing exactly that.
"Well I don't know what's in the mix, but my assessment is it would actually be bigger than that and likely take down all of their energy and economic resources"
The scope is what matters for oil. Kharg Island is the terminal through which most Iranian crude is exported; Keane's assessment goes past it to the whole of the country's energy and economic base
Bonus Insights
The preemption authority story is also an intelligence claim. Keane opened by saying the United States has complete situational awareness in the strait, which is the premise the rest of his assessment rests on
Asman's framing of the regime came with a detail Keane did not dispute — that after the mine attack was thwarted, Iran fired eight missiles at US service members in Jordan and nobody was hurt
Keane's bottom line is that Iran's two levers are both weakening — the strait is being transited again and the Gulf states can defend their own energy infrastructure — and that if Washington decides to force the issue, the target set will be Iran's entire energy and economic base rather than a single oil terminal.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
Truth Social (Where the president posted the AI-generated video of a strike on Kharg Island that Asman put to Keane)
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