Jason Robins said DraftKings has seen zero measurable loss of sportsbook volume to prediction markets, and that the idea it is happening is a myth.
The market thinks otherwise: DraftKings shares rose when Nevada won the right to enforce its gambling laws against the prediction-market operator Kalshi. Robins' position is that prediction markets are additive for his company, because they let it offer sports products in states where it cannot run a sportsbook at all.
"Well, I think the notion that it's pulling volume from sportsbooks is a complete myth."
Robins is the co-founder and Chief Executive of DraftKings, which had its first Wednesday-night NFL opener this week and now runs both a sportsbook and a prediction-market business.
I listened to the full segment so you can skip it.
Here are the 4 calls that matter.
👤 Guest: Jason Robins, co-founder and Chief Executive of DraftKings
🎙️ Host: Contessa Brewer, CNBC's gambling and casinos reporter, with Scott Wapner anchoring
📰 Published: 10 September 2026 on CNBC's Closing Bell
🟣 Apple Podcasts | 🔗 Episode page | ⏱️ 5 min
Key Takeaways
Robins says internal and external data show zero discernible cannibalization of sportsbook volume
The estimate he is rejecting: $2bn of handle moving from legal sportsbooks to event contracts, from H2 Gambling Capital
Prediction markets open California, Texas, Florida and Georgia — almost half the US population DraftKings could not sell a sportsbook to
He will not guess about Florida, where he has no licence and no access to Hard Rock's data
Sportsbook volume in mature states increasingly comes from professional bettors, which he says is a different customer from the retail audience he wants
1. The Cannibalization Myth
Contessa Brewer put the trend to him directly: sportsbook growth is stalling while prediction markets grow, and H2 Gambling Capital told her sports event contracts could pull $2 billion away from legal US sportsbooks.
Robins rejected the premise. "Well, I think the notion that it's pulling volume from sportsbooks is a complete myth."
His basis is the absence of a signal in the data rather than a model. "I've seen so much data on this, both internal and external, and absolutely zero that I have seen points to anything like that."
He has looked for it in his own markets. "I can tell you from what we see in our own data, in the markets that we operate in, we have seen zero discernible cannibalization."
2. Half The US Population
His explanation for the growth in prediction markets is geographic, not competitive.
The four states he named — California, Texas, Florida and Georgia — have no legal DraftKings sportsbook, leaving fantasy games and in some cases horse racing as the only products it could sell there
Sports predictions can now be offered in all of them. "It's almost half of the U.S. population that we weren't previously offering sportsbook to."
The contrast is with mature states. Many sportsbook states are seven or eight years past launch, which he said is a different proposition from a state experiencing a truly competitive first full NFL season
3. Florida And Hard Rock
Brewer pressed on the one state where the substitution case is strongest: Florida allows sports betting only through Hard Rock, owned by the Seminole Tribe, and H2 Gambling Capital expects the state's NFL handle to fall 12%.
Robins declined to claim the customers. "It's very hard to say. I mean, I don't have access to Hard Rock's data."
He extended his own reading to the state anyway, with a hedge. On his own data he sees no cannibalization, so "I would stand to reason it's probably not super material in Florida either"
He attributed the company's customer retention to product quality rather than to any structural advantage
4. Sharps Versus Retail
The last exchange was about why the stock trades as though prediction markets are a threat.
Robins said he has marvelled at the disconnect. He regards prediction markets as good for DraftKings overall, with some new competition but little or no measurable effect on the existing business
The gain he points to is a larger addressable market — the total pool of customers a company can sell to — which he said is opened up by the new states
His view of who is actually trading these contracts in sportsbook states is that it is not his core customer. A lot of that volume comes from sharps and professional bettors making markets, which he called a different audience from the retail entertainment customer, and in that case the market-making is being done by someone other than DraftKings
On the share price, he was blunt about the limit of his control. "The fact that the market doesn't believe it, I can't control."
Robins' bottom line is that prediction markets are a distribution channel into states DraftKings was locked out of, and that the substitution the market is pricing does not show up in his data.
Bonus Insights
The NFL's first Wednesday-night opener gave him nothing to compare it against. "Well, it's the first Wednesday game, so we didn't have a lot of comparisons." He called it a great matchup and noted the low scoring, which he said is usually good for the books
CNBC disclosed on air that it has a commercial relationship with Kalshi, the prediction-market operator whose Ninth Circuit loss to Nevada moved DraftKings' stock
Brewer framed the whole segment around an industry split — stagnating sportsbooks against soaring prediction markets — which Robins accepted as a description of the growth rates while rejecting the causation
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