A Goldman Sachs trainer once failed Jim Cramer in front of 24 peers for pricing Delta Air Lines off its own fundamentals instead of the 30-year Treasury, and Cramer said Thursday's session proved the lesson still holds.
Most investors price a stock against its own earnings and growth. Cramer's training-program answer did exactly that — and got him sent into the hall, because the bond that actually sets the price is the one the company has nothing to do with.
"The long bond. The 30 year Treasury is in charge of everything."
Cramer is a former hedge fund manager whose Cramer Berkowitz compounded returns at 24% a year after fees for 14 years, and he now runs the CNBC Investing Club's charitable trust.
I listened to the full segment so you can skip it.
Here are the 6 calls that matter.
👤 Speaker: Jim Cramer, host of Mad Money and manager of the CNBC Investing Club's charitable trust, a former hedge fund manager whose Cramer Berkowitz compounded returns at 24% a year after fees for 14 years
👥 Also on: Callers from Florida, Colorado, North Carolina, Illinois, California, New York, Nebraska and Connecticut
📰 Published: 10 September 2026 on CNBC
🟣 Apple Podcasts | ⏱️ 37 min | ✅ Time saved: 24 min
Key Takeaways
The 30-year Treasury, not a company's own numbers, sets what a stock is worth
A Goldman trainer failed Cramer for pricing Delta off oil and seat-mile costs instead of the long bond
The Treasury's $6 billion buyback is a popgun against roughly $4.5 trillion in outstanding long bonds
Lululemon may be running a "kitchen sink" quarter to clear the decks for its new CEO
Same-store sales fell 9%, nearly twice the expected 4.5% decline, and China missed a forecast 14.5% gain by coming in down 2%
Seneca Foods is up 256% over three years on canned vegetables, not chips
Earnings grew to $2.85 a share from $2.14, largely from a Green Giant frozen-food acquisition
He sold Procter & Gamble for the club and called Tractor Supply a stock with "no mojo"
He got angry at his own investing-club meeting over TJX's refusal to explain what went wrong at Marmaxx
1. The Long Bond Is King
Cramer opened with the story of a Goldman Sachs training-program quiz decades ago, when an instructor named Dave asked him what determines the price of Delta Air Lines stock.
He answered with Delta's own numbers: "Delta, which traded at $34 a P/E of seven, is hostage to the price of oil, an unhedged variable costs and PRASM, or passenger revenue per seat mile, as well as CASM costs per available seat mile with Delta." Dave told him he was wrong and sent him to stand in the hall for the rest of the meeting
The real answer, and the one Cramer said he never forgot: "The long bond. The 30 year Treasury is in charge of everything."
Thursday's market showed the mechanism at work. The Dow sank 317 points, the S&P 500 lost 0.58% and the Nasdaq fell 0.65%, all driven by the long bond responding to higher oil prices
Mortgage rates breached 7% that day and new and existing home sales were weak. "Housing is 10% of the economy, but it punches well above its weight." Cramer walked through everything a house touches — materials, wages, brokers, lawyers, plumbers, electricians, landscaping — plus retailers from RH to Best Buy to Home Depot and Lowe's and Stanley Black & Decker
For investors 50 and older, he argued the 30-year now competes directly with stocks: "But you know what beats stocks for anyone who's 50 or older? The 30 year Treasury, the king, that's what." He called a 5.3% risk-free return historically not bad, even allowing that inflation could erode it
On supply, Cramer put outstanding long-bond debt at roughly $4.5 trillion and said the Treasury is running a $6 billion buyback program against it — a gap he called far too small to move the price. "The whole thing is a little silly isn't it." He added that a proposed $5,000 payment to every adult, aimed at helping Republicans hold Congress after the midterms, would add another trillion dollars of issuance
Tying it back to Delta: "You price that stock off the 30 year Treasury, and right now, the Treasury wins." A high long bond pulls capital away from riskier stock, especially airlines, which he called notoriously fickle investments that also have to borrow well above the government's rate to buy planes
"If rates on that long bond are high, that's going to slow down the economy, is it not?" He said the one thing still holding stocks up despite high oil is employment, and that a hiring slowdown would hit airlines and other high-borrowing, high-growth names hardest
2. Callers: Howmet to Arista
Between the bond monologue and the ad break, Cramer took three caller questions that ranged across a fastener maker, a semiconductor winner and a networking stock.
A caller from Florida asked about Howmet Aerospace, a fastener and turbine-component maker she had liked since Cramer mentioned it September 2nd, given a sell-off tied to rivals vertically integrating turbine casting in-house. Cramer called it "a fastener company" that is "at most times a very commodity oriented business" trading at 44 times earnings — too rich for a commodity name even with the business strong, and he said the chart looks like it is still heading lower
A caller from Colorado described turning $1.6 million into $7.4 million in his 401(k) this year, mostly from Micron, after writing a four-page thesis using forward P/E, forward PEG and a possible $30 billion of buybacks once a chip export restriction ends December 9th. Cramer called the analysis "spot on in every single number" and said his charitable trust owns Micron and is buying it aggressively, adding that turning savings into an individual-stock position rather than an index fund is how an investor gets "really rich," not just rich
A caller from North Carolina compared Cramer to Peter Lynch and asked how confident he is that Arista Networks will avoid the fate of Ciena Corporation. Cramer credited his confidence to Arista chief executive Jayshree Ullal by name, saying every dip since her tenure began has been a buying opportunity and that he has not changed that view
3. Lululemon's Broken Story
Cramer devoted a full segment to Lululemon's latest quarter, which he framed as confirmation that a once-great growth story has become a broken one.
In less than three years, Lulu has gone from one of the greatest growth stories ever told to a thoroughly broken stock. And maybe, maybe, just maybe, a broken company. The stock is down more than 53% year to date and over 80% from its late-2023 peak, and Cramer traced the damage to both a shrinking athleisure category — Gen Z's move to baggier styles — and a market that has gone from Lululemon standing nearly alone to fighting Alo Yoga, Vuori, Athleta, Fabletics and Costco all at once.
Leadership has been unsettled for eight months: the prior CEO announced her departure effective January 31st, two interim co-CEOs briefly ran the company, and new chief executive Heidi O'Neill — a longtime Nike executive — had been on the job only two days when Cramer taped the segment
During that vacuum the company drew a Texas state investigation over "forever chemicals," fought off a public proxy battle from founder Chip Wilson that cost it two board seats, and staged a Yoga festival on the Great Wall of China that used a Japanese drum instead of a Chinese one. "Now, it may not sound like a big deal to you, but see, the Chinese still hold a pretty big grudge over the Japan's occupation during World War Two." The backlash landed just as China had been one of Lulu's few bright spots, with 20% same-store-sales growth the prior quarter
The quarter itself: same-store sales fell 9%, nearly double the expected 4.5% decline; Americas comps fell 12%, in line; and China mainland same-store sales fell 2% against an expected 14.5% gain. "That's the price of using a Japanese drum at a Yoga festival on the Great Wall of China." Total net revenue fell 4% to 5% in constant currency
Earnings beat at $1.79 a share, but 86%, or $0.86, of that beat came from tariff refunds. Guidance for the current quarter implies a double-digit sales decline and $0.93 to $0.98 of earnings per share against a Street estimate of $2.40, and the company cut its full-year outlook across the board. The stock fell more than 17% on the news
Cramer floated a kitchen-sink explanation: "Given that setup, maybe you have to consider the idea that what we saw was a so-called kitchen sink quarter, as in throw everything but the kitchen sink at investors get all the bad news out of the way so that the new leadership team, led by Heidi O'neill, can start to build back with the benefit of expectations that are low enough to beat." He called that plausible and noted the stock now trades at roughly ten times earnings versus 30 to 40 times in its heyday
His verdict: "So for now, let's just say this stock is bleeding out in no man's land. Don't try to be a hero and buy it. Just try to rubberneck and then move on." He said he has no reason to buy given the competitive damage, the reputational hit and no visible path back in the U.S., China or anywhere else, but that the low multiple also makes it too risky to short
4. Seneca, Walmart and SoFi
A viewer's tip sent Cramer digging into Seneca Foods, a canned-and-frozen-vegetable processor whose chart he said looks like an AI data-center stock despite selling corn, green beans and Green Giant-branded goods.
"The stock is up 256% over the past three years, and nearly 70% year to date." About half its business is private label, made for retailers' house brands, which Cramer said is attractive because the company profits whether shoppers buy the national brand or the cheap knockoff — it packages both
The company bought Green Giant's U.S. frozen business from B&G Foods for $61.5 million in March, following its 2023 purchase of Green Giant's American canned-foods business. "Seneca reported a terrific set of numbers, 36% revenue growth and earnings coming in at $2.85 per share. That's up from $2.14 the year before." Management credited the frozen acquisition, private-label growth and the end of expensive inventory left over from a poor 2024 harvest
Risks Cramer flagged: concentrated harvest timing that can hurt margins after a bad crop; customer concentration, with the top ten accounting for 56% of sales, up from 53%; and rising tin-plate steel costs tied to tariffs, though Seneca says it has cut steel use in can ends by 10%
On valuation: "Seneca trades at just over 13 times this year's expected earnings and less than 13 times next year's numbers." He compared it to nut processor John B. Sanfilippo and Sons, trading similarly at 12 to 13 times, and fresh-produce peer Fresh Del Monte, at roughly 10 times. "Sure, Seneca has had a huge run, but it's still pretty darn cheap because the earnings have been growing too." His call: "The valuation is reasonable enough that I'd be comfortable putting on a small position." He said he would rather buy on a further pullback than chase the recent run
A caller from Illinois asked whether to hold Walmart. Cramer said the stock, at 36 times earnings, deserves to trade lower now while it absorbs costs without passing them to customers, and higher later when that period ends; he put buy levels around 106, 105 and 95, and noted Walmart lacks the dividend-yield support that makes Target, which he said is outperforming Walmart right now, easier to own through the dip
A caller from California asked about SoFi after a year of little movement. Cramer called it a fintech bank trading at a high multiple relative to peers that will need earnings to catch up before the stock moves again: "I do like the company. I like the management. I wouldn't mind you owning it for the long term." He said he likes Seneca even more right now because, unlike SoFi or Walmart, it is not tied to the data-center trade at all
5. Lightning Round
Charles Schwab's sponsored Lightning Round brought five caller questions in rapid succession.
Procter & Gamble, held by a club member for years: "It's a tough stock because they don't have the growth that I want. They do have the 3% yield, but that's not enough." Cramer said the club has sold it
Kailera Therapeutics, a speculative obesity-drug name: Cramer called it the most speculative stock imaginable, said he has seen one-hit-wonder biotechs quadruple, and blessed the caller's own speculative bet without endorsing the name himself
Tractor Supply, sitting near its 52-week low: "Tractor Supply has no mojo and it's not a technical term." He called it a good company in an industry that currently rewards something more than being merely good
Texas Pacific Land: "Going higher. It's in the right industry and it's a very inexpensive stock." He credited a prior guest, Ben Stoto, with introducing him to it
Ondas Holdings, a wireless and autonomy name he called a meme stock traded heavily on message boards: "It's okay. It's a meme stock." He called it neither great nor bad
6. Cramer's TJX Meltdown
Cramer closed the broadcast reflecting on his own CNBC Investing Club meeting earlier that day, where he said he lost his temper reviewing TJX, the off-price retailer that owns Marmaxx.
"They have a bunch of divisions, but the biggest one, Marmaxx, consisting of TJ Maxx and Marshalls, really blew it." What angered him was management's refusal to explain the miss: "Management told us that they'd figure out what had gone wrong and they've already fixed it, but because of competitive reasons or whatever, they wouldn't tell us what went wrong and they wouldn't tell us how they fixed it. I found that infuriating."
He said he nearly invoked the closing line of the movie Chinatown on the call: "I came close to saying, forget it, Jim. It's retail." He noted TJX is normally best in class, beating Burlington and Ross Stores consistently, but this time Ross posted the upside surprise instead: "But this time shockingly Ross Stores upside surprise. It crushed TJX much better than expected."
He put part of the blame on the group's exposure to shrinking discretionary income from high gasoline prices, alongside Lululemon, Dick's Sporting Goods — which he said "swallowed the whale that was Foot Locker" — and Walmart, which he said has eaten gross margin that would normally flow to shareholders because it senses this is the moment to take market share
His closing view was that some of the best long-term stock stories have come out of retail — Costco, Walmart and TJX itself among them — even though the group is now genuinely hard to own with confidence: he did not lose his temper over any industrial or data-center name that day, only TJX
Cramer's bottom line is that the long bond, not any single company's numbers, is setting the terms for the rest of the market, and that Thursday's damage — from housing to Lululemon to his own TJX position — traces back to it.
Bonus Insights
The Micron caller opened with a bit: "My wife says I need professional help, so I called you." Cramer played along, addressing him back as "Professor" through the rest of the exchange
Asked about Peter Lynch, whose Magellan Fund a caller's family had also owned, Cramer noted it was one of the first funds that closed to new investors when it got too big: "And he gave a lot to BC. He's just a great man, a great man."
Reflecting on the caller's 401(k) gain, Cramer offered a rare personal aside on wealth: "I was dirt poor, let me tell you. It's better to be rich."
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
Delta Air Lines (The stock Cramer priced off fundamentals as a Goldman Sachs trainee, and was told to price off the long bond instead)
Lululemon Athletica (Down more than 53% year to date; Cramer's central case study for a broken growth story awaiting new CEO Heidi O'Neill)
Alo Yoga, Vuori, Athleta and Fabletics (The athleisure rivals Cramer says have made the category "viciously competitive" since Lululemon's early dominance)
Costco (Named as a low-price threat to Lululemon's apparel pricing, and separately praised by Cramer as one of the great long-term retail stories)
Seneca Foods (Up 256% over three years on canned and frozen vegetables; Cramer's pick for a small position on further weakness)
Green Giant (The brand behind Seneca's $61.5 million frozen-business acquisition from B&G Foods, which drove its recent earnings growth)
John B. Sanfilippo and Sons and Fresh Del Monte (Valuation comparisons Cramer used to argue Seneca is not expensive despite its run)
Walmart (Trading at 36 times earnings; Cramer's buy levels were 106, 105 and 95, and he said it lacks Target's yield support)
Target (Cited as outperforming Walmart right now because of its dividend-yield support)
SoFi (A fintech bank Cramer likes long term but says trades at a high multiple versus peers)
Howmet Aerospace (The fastener and turbine-component maker a caller asked about; Cramer called it too expensive at 44 times earnings for a commodity business)
Micron Technology (The stock behind a caller's 401(k) gain from $1.6 million to $7.4 million; Cramer's charitable trust owns and is buying it)
Arista Networks (Cramer's confidence rests on chief executive Jayshree Ullal, and he says every dip since her tenure began has been a buying opportunity)
Procter & Gamble (Sold by Cramer's club; he said its 3% yield isn't enough to offset weak growth)
Kailera Therapeutics (A speculative obesity-drug name Cramer called the most speculative stock on earth)
Tractor Supply (Near its 52-week low; Cramer said it has "no mojo" despite being a good company)
Texas Pacific Land (Cramer's call: "going higher," and inexpensive for its industry)
Ondas Holdings (A wireless and autonomy meme stock Cramer called neither great nor bad)
TJX Companies (Owner of Marmaxx (TJ Maxx and Marshalls), whose unexplained miss angered Cramer at his own club meeting)
Ross Stores and Burlington (Off-price peers Cramer normally says TJX beats; this quarter Ross beat TJX instead)
Dick's Sporting Goods (Described as having "swallowed the whale that was Foot Locker")
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