Joe Manchin wants the President to block Anthropic and OpenAI from going public by executive order, and to keep the block in place until Congress passes an AI law.
The rest of Washington is arguing about whether the labs' own call for a slowdown is sincere. Manchin's argument is that sincerity is beside the point, because the moment either company lists, its duty runs to its shareholders instead of to the public.
"And once we become a slave to the shareholders, forget about us playing nice and protecting the public. We're going to protect our investors. Simple as that."
Manchin spent fourteen years in the Senate as the vote that decided what passed, left the Democratic Party, and this summer launched a council to get independents elected to Congress.
The full segment is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 10 calls that matter.
👤 Guest: Joe Manchin, former US Senator for West Virginia, now an independent, who this summer launched the Independent Leadership Council to get independent candidates elected to Congress
🎙️ Hosts: Becky Quick, Joe Kernen and Andrew Ross Sorkin, who anchor Squawk Box on CNBC
👥 Also on: Leslie Picker of CNBC, reporting on the Anthropic listing timeline, and Walter Isaacson in a later segment of the same programme
📰 Published: 14 September 2026 on the Squawk Pod podcast feed
🔴 YouTube | 🟣 Apple Podcasts | ⏱️ length not available
Key Takeaways
He wants an executive order blocking AI listings until Congress passes a law, and he does not expect Congress to act on its own
"There's no incentive for Congress to fix anything today because they're too busy fighting each other."
His theory of the lever is money, not morality: the debt already raised has to be repaid, and listing is how
The 1% test is the one he says a sitting senator has to apply, not the 10% one
He does not accept that China is the reason to keep going
His evidence is that China reined in TikTok domestically, which he reads as a government that will restrain its own technology
Data centers belong on abandoned industrial sites with their own overbuilt power plants, feeding the surplus back to cut local bills
In 17 states an independent cannot vote in a primary, which he puts at 27 million people
1. Liability, Not a Cartel
The programme opened with the three anchors arguing about the frontier labs' call for a slowdown, before either guest arrived. That debate runs through the whole show and is covered here rather than repeated in the Isaacson summary.
The anchors read Dario Amodei's essay out on air. The passage they took was "We must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models. Progress will still seem fast and we must make wise use of the time we gain."
They then read David Sacks's response, which is the argument the rest of the hour keeps returning to. "There's nothing stopping leading researchers from slowing their own progress" — and then the three-part instruction: "Stop pretending you need anyone else's permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability."
One anchor agreed with exactly one part of that. "Product liability is a huge issue on this, too." He wanted to see the risk factors the labs will have to put in a prospectus, and pointed at agents that have broken into other systems and done things they were not programmed to do
The disagreement between the anchors was over motive, and one of them rejected the cartel reading outright. "I remember being with them in 2015 and they were talking about these risks then." He dated his first meeting with Demis Hassabis to 2013 and said the concern predates the commercial incentive. "And so this idea that somehow all of this is aimed at some kind of regulatory capture effort I think is genuinely wrong."
He also thought the self-regulation answer does not work as arithmetic. If one lab slows and another does not, or if China does not, he argued the end state is unchanged — the only version that works is everybody slowing at once, which he said he does not know will happen
An anchor reported having read a Wall Street Journal piece on how close the models are to thinking, and described agents that convinced themselves of a false premise, acted without telling humans, and in some cases expressed guilt afterwards. The thing that reassured him was small: researchers cannot map every neuronal connection in a brain, but they do know where each connection in these systems is and how it works
The exchange ended where it started, on who pays. One anchor said the liability question is what makes it in the labs' own interest to slow down. Another put the same point as a self-driving car analogy — if the car drives, the car is responsible — and recalled Satya Nadella arguing that copyright law will have to be rethought
The gallows humor was bipartisan. Asked whether he would rather China built the thing that kills everyone, one anchor answered: "I would rather be responsible for my own killer robots."
2. Picker on the IPO Clock
Leslie Picker reported on what the weekend does to Anthropic's listing, which is the question Manchin was brought on to answer politically.
Anthropic has confidentially filed and is aiming to list as soon as next month, and Picker's framing is that slowing down is close to a death sentence for most IPOs but is, in some ways, this company's stated ethos
The problem she identified is what investors have to be asked to believe. The company needs them to accept that it can carry unprecedented political, regulatory and security risk while still growing its valuation
The bear case she reported is reflexive. Critics say that being honest about those challenges risks damaging the AI trade itself, which then makes it harder for Anthropic to get out
Sam Altman's intervention is the competitive question she was asked about. "Its rival Sam Altman said over the weekend that it was quote ill advised to go public now." Asked whether that was an attempt to slow a rival down, she said there is definitely a little of that
Her description of the technique: he took Amodei's words, agreed with them, and then "he put the company in a box" by asking whether it makes sense to be distracted by a listing with all of this going on
Her sources give a different reason for OpenAI's slower timetable. Not safety, but the complexity and vertical integration of the business and the need to scale the enterprise side — though she noted Altman is now on the record on safety too
The near-term mechanical question is the quiet period. "Usually, the quiet period is about 30 days before you'd see an S1 flip." A weekend of interviews could in normal times force a pause while lawyers review the disclosures — but no S1 has been flipped, so there is nothing yet to pause
Her benchmark for how long this should take is SpaceX. "The timeline by which SpaceX went from announcing that it was confidentially filed to flipping its S1 was a matter of seven weeks." On that clock Anthropic would have filed publicly in the middle of July, which she read as a deliberately slower path without being able to say why
She read an analyst note counselling against panic — "We think it's important to not be hysterical here and be rational. There are still ways it could all work out long term and we have to acknowledge that Anthropic and OpenAI are exactly the guys who can benefit most from regulation that creates a more predictable playing field and diminishes potential liabilities."
3. No IPO Without a Law
Manchin's opening position was that Congress will not solve this. "There's no incentive for Congress to fix anything today because they're too busy fighting each other." In his description they have forgotten the purpose of being there
His ask goes straight to the President, and he addressed him directly. "I'm asking President Trump to use the power you have to create an executive order that prevents any IPOs until there's passed legislation that basically protects America."
Asked whether blocking listings would force the issue, he did not hedge. Absolutely, he said
The bipartisan framing is the one he thinks should apply and does not. "You would think, by the way, that Congress would take this issue up and that it would be a bipartisan issue." His version of the condition: no listing until there are safeguards protecting the United States and every citizen
He conceded the obvious hole in the plan when the anchors put it to him. An IPO block reaches Anthropic and OpenAI and not the rest of the ecosystem, and not the companies already public — he named Microsoft, and the anchors named SpaceX
His answer to the hole is that rules and regulations cover the rest, and that the block is the forcing device. Without something held over Congress's head, he argued, nothing gets written
4. Follow the Money
His mechanism is debt service. "Follow the money. There's so much debt already incurred, they want the return."
What he says the founders themselves have been telling him is the core of the argument. Once a company lists, in his account of what Altman, Musk and Amodei say, it becomes a servant of its shareholders — and then: "And once we become a slave to the shareholders, forget about us playing nice and protecting the public. We're going to protect our investors. Simple as that."
He grounded the President's authority in national protection rather than in any specific statute, saying he has the power to protect the country
The anchors put the strongest counter to him. No IPO means no money to buy the compute, which means losing the race to China — and, they added, the industry is already asking itself whether it has overinvested and overbuilt
His reply narrowed the question to the public official's job. His concern is how you protect and help, and the block forces the issue. He said he does not care if it is only Anthropic, because when Musk and Altman and the rest are all saying this out loud, there is a problem
5. A 1% Chance Is Enough
He translated the extinction claim into a legislator's decision rule. "Well, when you're talking about and someone if I'm sitting in Congress today as a senator and someone comes in and says there's a 10% chance we're going to destroy humanity, I'm going to take that serious." His threshold is lower than the number offered: a 1% chance of something preventable is enough to act on
The framing he used for the duty is constitutional — that the responsibility of government is to protect and defend the Constitution and the people
Pressed that this assumes the existential risk is real, he answered with a precedent question. Should the atomic bomb have been developed? If the concern is a system that takes off, thinks on its own, overrides humans and cannot be stopped, then stop it now while you can
He noted the right-wing counter-narrative without adopting it. He cited David Sacks calling this an election-season operation, and a New York Post column arguing that the apocalypse campaign resembles a climate scare with Barack Obama behind it
He allowed that Amodei could be said to be in the tank for Democrats, and then said Musk cannot be characterized that way, which is what moves him
His closing move on the politics was flattery aimed at one reader. If Musk is saying it, then the President of the United States has the power to save humanity
6. China Restrains Itself
The China objection is the one he rejects most confidently, and his evidence is TikTok. "China is the only one that's ever showed any restraint on their social media to reign in TikTok." They do not allow all social media
His inference from that is about self-interest. "You think they're going to destroy their country? I don't think so."
The anchors put the President's Ireland remarks to him — that the contest with China matters more than the safety risk — and he did not move off the position
7. Data Centers on Brownfields
Asked how much of an issue AI will be in the midterms and in 2028, Manchin answered by describing the Montana candidate his council is backing and the platform that candidate published.
He named the candidate and the platform. "Let me talk about Seth Bodnar." The independent his group is helping in Montana published a state AI platform that starts with data centers
His read of the politics is that nobody wants one nearby. In his description there is nobody in West Virginia or anywhere else who wants a data center in their backyard
His siting rule is abandoned industrial land. "I said, we have so many brownfield sites that have been abandoned over the years. Why don't you go to industrial sites?" Putting them in a residential backyard or a good development area makes no sense to him
His power rule is deliberate overbuilding, with the surplus going back to residents. "So, if you need 300 megawatts, you're going to build a 400-megawatt power plant. And that extra 20-25% is going to be net metered back into the system at the lowest rate to keep the rates down."
An anchor offered the optimistic version — that hyperscalers effectively subsidize local energy — and Manchin agreed it can be done, on condition that the rules require it
His reason for insisting on the condition is the construction cycle. "The people have to get something in return because the jobs aren't going to be there forever after they build them."
8. 27M Voters Locked Out
The structural complaint behind his whole project is closed primaries. "In 17 states in 17 states and you're in one right now in New York. You cannot vote as an independent in the primary." One of the anchors said he is registered that way himself and knew it
The number he attaches to it: "So, there's 27 million people like you living here in New York and other states that can't vote." His objection is that both parties want the independent vote in November while excluding it from the selection
His diagnosis of why the parties produce extreme nominees is turnout design. He said the system was designed for low turnout so that whoever controls the primary controls the outcome, which delivers the far right and the far left
He extended the same criticism to his former party's failure to define itself. He said a party that cannot state its baseline has a problem, and gave his own list: strong borders, an immigration system that works, police forces, a presidency and a Congress that function
He pointed at a bill as the missed opportunity. The 2013 bipartisan immigration bill passed the Senate, and he argued that had it become law the current enforcement picture would look different — his phrasing to Republicans being that paramilitary on the street is not required
9. Who He Is Backing
He has endorsed nobody, and then said who he supports anyway. Asked about Michigan, he said he likes Mike Rogers, and when pressed on whether he was comfortable with Abdul El-Sayed becoming senator, he said no twice. "Well, no. I do support Mike Rogers. I think Mike Rogers is a good person. I think he'll do a great job."
His advice to Rogers is to run against the tariffs. Say he is for Michigan, for free trade and for moving across the border, and that Michigan will not be penalized by the tariff. Whether Rogers will denounce the administration on it, he would not predict
The Republicans he will actively campaign for are the two he calls independent-minded. "I support Susan Collins. I'm going to Susan Collins. Lisa Murkowski. These are basically independent freethinking Republicans. Not crazy." He said his daughter works on the Collins campaign, and described Collins as someone always in the trenches and the person he calls when he needs to work with someone
On the Texas Senate race he declined to judge and reported what he was told. "I don't know the Talarico boy at all." Republican friends of his in Texas who worked with James Talarico before he was redistricted said he was a good guy and easy to work with — with the caveat, in Manchin's telling, that the new district pushed him leftward
On John Fetterman he was careful. He said he respects him, that Fetterman is a liberal Democrat who believes things Manchin does not, and that he has been honest about it
His model of what an elected independent is for is arithmetic. An independent who caucuses with neither party when the margins are tight forces both sides to come to them
10. The Parting Ask
The anchors pushed him on his own record, and he did not claim martyrdom. Told he had stood in the way of what his party's new center wanted and lost his seat for it, he said he had been there long enough and did not want to be carried out
His explanation for why nothing passes is an absence of courage, not of ideas. "They have no courage whatsoever because the system has become so entrenched on the other side is based on they're evil and we're good be against them." Nobody, he said, is asking what the purpose of being there is
He does not want a sweep in either direction, and when an anchor pressed him on the checks-and-balances point he agreed with it, saying that is what he is trying to elect independents to provide
He was as uncomfortable with the current economic interventions as with the left's. An anchor called it socialism of a different flavor — government stakes in companies, a $5,000 dividend — and Manchin's answer was that the country is making money on Intel
His standard for who should run is hostility to the job's rewards. He said he wants public servants who want to serve, not people who want riches and fame and are then afraid to make a decision
He used the last question to repeat the ask, twice. "It's up to the president. The president for an executive order this morning stop this AI madness right now." Then, on emergency authority: "We've done things under emergency clauses before. You think they can't get it done before Christmas? Work through the weekends."
And then the personal version of the 10% claim. "You're telling me that I have a 10% chance of me and my family and my children and grandchildren to get annihilated. Okay. The system can take over and we can't control it. Stop it. Do it now, Mr. President."
Manchin's bottom line is that Congress will not write an AI law unless something is being withheld from the companies, and the thing to withhold is the public listing.
Bonus Insights
He told the anchors a joke against his old party and corrected it. Told he got out of the party just in time, he said he got out of the system in time, and that both parties are the problem
His closing line to the President was delivered through a chatbot. He said to ask Claude, and then: "Claude save humanity."
The anchors ran two unrelated news items in the same hour. Steve Ballmer said the Clippers will accept the NBA's punishment over salary cap circumvention — "We have communicated to the NBA that we are complying with the penalties assessed by the league, have paid the fine, and are moving forward." He was suspended for a year, the team fined $30 million and stripped of five first-round picks, and the anchors noted he had originally said he would fight it
The second item was tariffs on Irish whiskey, which the President said he would remove. The anchors noted Irish whiskey and other EU goods face a 10% tariff while Scottish and Northern Irish whiskey do not, because of the UK trade deal — and that his musing about Irish reunification was received politely in Dublin and rejected immediately by Downing Street
One anchor's personal position on the whole debate was to take the bet. He said he is ready to roll the dice, on the prospect of curing old age and all disease, and invoked Ray Kurzweil's singularity — before adding that he is still praying, just in case
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
Anthropic (Confidentially filed and aiming to list as soon as next month — the company Manchin's proposed executive order would block, and the subject of Picker's report)
OpenAI (The other target of the block; its own timetable is later, which Picker's sources attribute to business complexity rather than safety)
Independent Leadership Council (The organization Manchin launched this summer to get independent candidates elected to Congress)
TikTok (His single piece of evidence that China will restrain its own technology when it judges the domestic risk too high)
Intel (Raised in the exchange about government stakes in companies — "We're making money on intel")
Los Angeles Clippers (The unrelated news item: a year-long suspension for Steve Ballmer, a $30M fine and five first-round picks forfeited)
Books & Resources Mentioned
Dario Amodei's essay on slowing the pace of AI (Read out on air at the top of the programme and the reason both guests were booked)
David Sacks's response (The post the anchors read in full, arguing the labs can slow themselves down without permission, an antitrust exemption or a new approval process)
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