The Dow has risen in 15 of the past 16 months, and the momentum factor is on track for its worst quarter against the S&P 500 in 25 years.
Three Wall Street desks turned cautious on the same morning. The four investors on CNBC's investment committee mostly refused to trade the calendar, and two of them used the hour to add risk rather than cut it.
"I know very few professional money managers who are attempting to make a tactical sale on September 1st, because it's September and then get back in October for a better setup."
Josh Brown co-founded Ritholtz Wealth Management and runs it; Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link and Jason Snipe each manage client money, and every one of them came on air with a position they had actually taken.
I listened to the full segment so you can skip it. 21 minutes of audio, 16 minutes of reading.
Here are the 11 takeaways that matter.
🎙️ Host: Scott Wapner, who anchors CNBC's "Halftime Report" and runs the investment committee segment
👥 Also on: Joe Terranova, chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners; Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower Advisors; Jason Snipe, founder and chief investment officer of Odyssey Capital Advisors; Josh Brown, co-founder and chief executive of Ritholtz Wealth Management; and Oliver Renick, who reports the show's options segment from Cboe Global Markets in Chicago
📰 Published: 1 September 2026 on CNBC
🟢 Spotify | 🟣 Apple Podcasts | ⏱️ 21 min | ✅ Time saved: 5 min
Key Takeaways
Trading the September calendar is not something managers with a fiduciary duty actually do Brown says he knows very few attempting a September 1 sale and an October re-entry
Momentum peaked against the S&P 500 on June 22 and has given back 16.1 percentage points since Brown counts 51 days past the peak: momentum down 13.7%, the S&P up 2.4%
Quality stocks rose 1.5% this quarter while momentum fell double digits
Three Wall Street desks turned cautious on the same morning, for three different reasons Citadel Securities on positioning, J.P. Morgan on the Magnificent Seven, Wells Fargo on peak AI capital spending
September has averaged a 2.7% loss over 50 years, and October and November have averaged gains
Value has beaten growth by 14% so far this year, and higher interest rates are part of the reason
Five of the ten best Septembers since 1950 came when the market entered the month strong
Someone paid to close two bullish Microsoft call spreads that had until December 2027 to work The two trades were among the three biggest on the tape that day, for about $36M of credit
Amphenol's biggest quarter in 94 years came with its operating margin expanding at the same time
Dell is up 248% since Brown wrote it up last September, and Terranova has held it since 2020
Potash is the cheapest of the fertilizer nutrients, which is how Terranova picked the stock
1. September's Bad Reputation
Wapner opened the hour on the month's record and on what he said would decide it, which was yields and momentum rather than the calendar.
The Dow's run is close to unprecedented. It has been up 15 of the past 16 months, and Wapner said the only comparable streak he could find in the data was a 19-for-20 run in 1935 and 1936
The momentum trade is what has broken, and it broke before September. "The index momentum is on track for the biggest quarterly underperformance in 25 years. It's tumbled more than 9% since July 1st. That lags behind the S&P 2.8% gain."
The two things Wapner said to watch are the 10-year Treasury yield, at its highest since January 2025, and momentum, which is falling
In August the S&P 500 rose 2.6% and the momentum factor rose 0.3%, and semiconductor stocks were weaker
2. Quality Over Momentum
Terranova's answer was that the money leaving momentum has not left the market, and that the bearishness now showing up in sentiment is the thing that usually marks a bottom in a factor.
The rotation has a destination, and he named it. "Quality over the current quarter, while momentum has been down double digits, quality has actually been up 1.5%." He added that the market therefore has somewhere to retreat to
What set the bearishness off was two sets of earnings that failed to lift the trade. Terranova pointed at last week's disappointment that high-beta momentum stocks got no lift from Nvidia's results, or from the companies that sell into Nvidia, or from Marvell's
He treats turning sentiment as a buy signal rather than a warning. "And when sentiment finally turns, that actually is the moment where you don't want to get too bearish."
His near-term call is a bounce, and he named the instrument he is watching. "Watch the semis. The semis are showing a little bit of strength here." Micron was higher as he spoke, and he said that is his indicator
"But I would not get too bearish right now."
3. Three Desks Turn Cautious
This section is the show's own reporting rather than the committee's. Wapner read three separate pieces of Wall Street research at the desk and asked whether it was time to join them.
Citadel Securities' Scott Rubner argued that every support under the market is fading at once. Wapner said Rubner's list runs: earnings are delivered and behind us; retail stays a buyer but becomes a smaller source of incremental demand in September; systematic exposure has rebuilt; the corporate bid fades as the buyback blackout window returns; and the drop in volatility is spent Wapner quoted the conclusion directly: "I would use strength to reduce some exposure and add inexpensive protection into this event window. I'm not looking for the beginning of a broader bearish turn. I am looking for a tactical reset."
Two more desks moved the same morning. "J.P. Morgan's trading desk. They're moving to a more tactically cautious, neutral view. Okay. That's them, Wells Fargo, we're turning cautious on equities raising peak AI capex fears."
Wapner's own framing was that this is not seasonality. He put it as a calculation: earnings are gone as a catalyst until the next reporting season, the corporate bid goes away in the blackout window, and volatility has room to rise from where it has been "You haven't had much volatility at all. The VIX was like at 13 or 14 not that long ago. But that could return." He added that J.P. Morgan's note flags continuing anxiety about the return the Magnificent Seven earn on what they are spending, and that the fight over data centers sits underneath it
4. Link Wants the Volatility
Link accepted the seasonal statistics and said they do not describe how she invests, then gave her reasons for thinking the economy is fine.
She gave the 50-year seasonal averages and then declined to trade them. "Okay, on average, over the last 50 years, the S&P 500 in September is down 2.7%. However, October reverses that trend, and on average it's up 2.8%. And in November it's up 3.9%."
A pullback is what she is hoping for, not what she is hedging against. "I am actually looking for the volatility in September to add to some of the positions that I have already been adding to, and maybe there's some new opportunities."
The rotation out of momentum has already paid value investors. "And I think it's really interesting that while momentum has corrected value has outperformed growth year to date by 14%." She put that down to valuations first and to higher interest rates second
Her explanation for higher rates includes growth, not only inflation and supply. She listed elevated inflation, government debt issuance and deficit worries around the world, then said better growth is also part of it The data she cited that morning: the job openings survey now shows roughly one opening for every unemployed person, the openings number itself was up 3%, and the ISM manufacturing index has risen eight months in a row
Her instruction to viewers was to stop timing. "So I just think the economy is doing fine. We're going to have some volatility. Embrace it. Don't try and time it and just look for opportunities."
5. Snipe Went Back 75 Years
Snipe ran his own version of the seasonal work and came out the other side of it.
He looked at a shorter history than Wapner and found two conditions that favor this September. "Five of the ten best September since 1950 have been when the market is heading into strength into September and also in midterm election years, which obviously we have." The market is up 12% year to date, which is the strength condition
His firm does not trade the calendar because of what it is. He said they are long-only investors rather than tactical traders, and that anyone who wants to trim is welcome to
The earnings season is why he would add rather than sell. "But I do believe again, 86% beat rate from an earnings perspective, 50% growth for the S&P."
If this turns out to be a soft patch, he said, adding exposure is what he would likely do
6. Momentum Peaked on June 22
Brown's objection was not to the statistics but to the idea that anyone managing other people's money acts on them.
He opened on a comedy sketch and got to the point through it. "I'm reminded of the great Damon Wayans, who famously said in character as Homie the Clown, homie don't play that."
The problem with a seasonal probability is that it does not tell you which side you are on. Brown allowed that the market's first two weeks of September fall 61% of the time, then asked how anyone knows whether they are in the 61 or the 39, and said he will not generate taxable gains for clients on that basis
His verdict on seasonality is that it is context and nothing more. "So I think a lot of this seasonality stuff is helpful context. And then a lot of it sort of delves into this world where it's astrology for middle aged men." "And you will not find, in my experience, people who have a fiduciary responsibility to their clients making trades based on the time of the year."
The unwind everyone is warning about has been running since June, and he put a date and a number on it. "Do you know that momentum as a factor actually peaked relative to the S&P on June 22nd? We are now 51 days past the peak of momentum's outperformance. Momentum is down 13.7% since then, with the S&P up 2.4%. That is 16.1 percentage points of momentum factor relative underperformance."
He argued the rotation has been good for portfolios rather than bad. Stocks that never joined the momentum rally have picked up the slack, and he named the health care rally and his own energy holdings as examples "I actually like that momentum has cooled off."
He also set the drawdown against what came before it. Brown said the peak followed a historic run, and that to find a period where momentum had outperformed the S&P by 24% going into a peak you have to go back a very long way
7. Microsoft Bulls Cash Out
Renick reported the day's options flow from Cboe Global Markets in Chicago, and the two trades he picked both point the same way.
The setup is a stock that ran on earnings and then stopped. "Microsoft ended the summer with an explosive rally on earnings, but it's been stuck alongside the broad market the past several weeks."
Someone closed two bullish call spreads rather than hold them. "The trades spanned more than 30,000 call contracts, for a total credit of about $36 million."
What makes it notable is how much time the position had left. "Now these were still very far out of the money contracts. But they also were for December 2027 expiry." "So it's interesting not just because they were two of the top three biggest trades on the entire tape today, but because they still had plenty of time to work. But the owner chose to bail instead."
Snipe owns the stock and stayed with it. He noted that Bank of America had that day raised its Microsoft target to $600 from $500 and reiterated a buy
His case is the cloud business and the paid seat count. "So I think, you know, for me on Azure, Azure is now $100 billion business." He said Azure revenue was up 43% year over year and Copilot adoption is improving at 30 million paid seats The stock is up around 4% on the year, having been in the doldrums before the results
Wapner had the control room measure the move off earnings, which he put at the 29th, and the graphic came back at 27% since then. Snipe attributed the move to the Copilot numbers and said the company will remain cash flow positive
8. Amphenol's Record Quarter
Brown's "Best Stocks in the Market" segment took two data center names, and the first is a connector maker he wrote up in June.
The stock has run 70% since the write-up. He first wrote about Amphenol on June 20 at $93 a share
Sales and margin are expanding at the same time, which is the combination he says makes a stock work. "They just reported the biggest quarter in the company's 94 year history, 8.8 billion in sales, which is up 55%, a record 29.8%. Adjusted operating margin, which is itself up 420 basis points."
The data center share of the business has moved in a year. "Data centers were 33% of sales when we wrote it up last summer. Now it's up to 43%." He called it the fastest growing part of the company
He moved the stop up and said where it sits. The level is 145, which is the rising 200-day moving average, and a weekly close below it would change his view; he said there is a lot of room between the current price and that level
A mechanical warning came with it. "One important thing on that level they're going to split two for one tomorrow. So all of those values will get cut in half. Adjust your risk management accordingly."
9. Dell, Up 248% Since 2025
The second name is one of the few Brown has written up twice, and it reported the same night the segment aired.
The return since the first write-up is the headline. "The stock is, I think, up 248% since our original write up last September." He first wrote it on September 29, 2025, did a television segment right after it rolled over, stayed with it and wrote it up again in March 2026
The chart is a consolidation, not a top, in his reading. "This stock has been an absolute home run. It's done nothing but go up with very little variation." He expects a breakout, with overhead resistance at 500 against a $434 share price
He gave the level where he would change his mind. $400 on a closing basis is the line for a trader; if buyers do not step in there, he said, sentiment has changed
He flagged the event risk in the same breath. The company was due to report that night, which he said could change a lot overnight, though he expects the fundamentals to be good
Terranova has owned it since before the AI trade existed. "Scott, we took a position on this on November 17th of 2020 at $31.75. We still hold that position today because they have delivered on every metric accordingly." Asked how far the position is up, he said, "I believe it's 400%." He credited the relationships the company built early in the move toward more capable artificial intelligence for the growth rate it is running at now
10. Terranova Buys Potash
The trade tracker segment was Terranova's, and he bought Nutrien on the back of a move in soft commodities rather than in energy.
The move he is chasing is in agriculture, not oil. "But it's corn. It's wheat. It's soybeans, it's cotton all up double digits and more in the month of August."
He picked the nutrient on price. "Potash is the cheapest of the nutrients that are needed for fertilizer companies." Nitrogen and phosphate cost more, and Nutrien is the largest retail producer of potash
The company case is balance sheet and cash. He said Nutrien is improving its balance sheet significantly, increasing free cash flow, and already signaling that it will return more capital to shareholders
He was open that he may have bought it too high. "The stock in the near term, if you're worried about the near term, it's extended. So I might have reached for it here slightly." He said he will buy more in a pullback because he wants the theme
His last point before the segment ended was the forecast for a significant El Niño weather pattern
11. The Final Trades
The hour closed with the desk's single ideas, against a market that was down on the day.
Brown's is Apple, and his reason is the tape rather than the products. "Don't I always say pay attention to the stocks that are up, notably up on the down days for the market." He said buyers are accumulating it The catalysts he named are the new chief executive having just started, a presentation on the foldable phone, and then the iPhone 18 "People want to be long this stock and they will probably take it through the record high of a few weeks ago."
Terranova picked Apple as well, and read the move as a verdict on the succession. "And I think it's a validation of John Ternus." He said many people had expected the stock to fall on Tim Cook's first day away
Snipe's is Goldman Sachs, on the last set of results. "Revenue was up 40% and record EPS. I continue to like this one."
Bonus Insights
Wapner's word for the desks turning cautious was "cavalry," and he built the whole first block around whether the committee wanted to ride in with them
Brown's argument against tactical selling included a practical one about client conversations: if the S&P is up 6% before you buy back, "well, it was September" is the answer you are left with
Terranova claimed the first Apple slot in the final trades and pointed out on air that he had picked it before Brown did
A stumble over Tim Cook's name turned into the hour's only real joke, with Brown noting that at least nobody had said "Tim Apple"
Brown said the write-ups behind both stock picks, including the split-adjusted levels, are on CNBC Pro
The committee's bottom line, taken from the September-setup debate that opened the hour, is that the calendar is not a reason to sell: the momentum unwind the cautious desks are warning about has been running since June 22, and all four investors said they would rather buy the volatility than trade around it.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
Microsoft (Someone closed two bullish call spreads on it for about $36M of credit with the contracts running to December 2027; Snipe stayed long on Azure at a $100B revenue run rate, up 43% year over year, and 30 million paid Copilot seats)
Amphenol (Brown's data center pick, up about 70% since he wrote it at $93 in June; biggest quarter in its 94-year history and a 2-for-1 split the next day)
Dell Technologies (Up 248% since Brown's September 2025 write-up, reporting that night, with his stop at $400 and resistance at 500; Terranova has held it since November 2020)
Nutrien (Terranova's new position, chosen because potash is the cheapest fertilizer nutrient and the company is the largest retail producer of it)
Apple (The final trade for both Brown and Terranova, on accumulation into a down tape and on the market's verdict about John Ternus taking over from Tim Cook)
Goldman Sachs (Snipe's final trade, on revenue up 40% and record earnings per share)
Nvidia and Marvell (Their results are the ones Terranova says failed to give high-beta momentum stocks the lift the market wanted)
Micron (Terranova's chosen indicator for whether momentum bounces, and it was trading higher as he spoke)
Citadel Securities (Scott Rubner's note, read out at the desk, arguing for using strength to cut exposure and buy cheap protection into a tactical reset)
J.P. Morgan (Its trading desk moved to a tactically cautious, neutral view, and its note flags continuing anxiety about the returns on the Magnificent Seven's spending)
Wells Fargo (Turned cautious on equities the same morning, citing peak AI capital-spending fears)
Bank of America (Raised its Microsoft price target to $600 from $500 and reiterated a buy that day)
Corn, wheat, soybeans and cotton (All up double digits or more in August, which is the move Terranova wanted fertilizer exposure to)
Books & Resources Mentioned
Best Stocks in the Market (Brown's CNBC Pro column, where he says the fuller write-ups on Amphenol and Dell sit)
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