Bloomberg Money runs its Friday hour split between Jackson Hole and New York. Tom Keene reports from Wyoming on Kevin Warsh's first speech as Fed chair and interviews Kenneth Rogoff on why he thinks the US debt will not be dealt with until a crisis forces it; Scarlet Fu works through mortgage rates, the Canada tariffs, retiree migration to Delaware, employers dropping group health plans, ADP's wage data, 529 plans, and why most Americans now feel guilty spending money on anything fun.
Guest: Kenneth Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard University and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund
Guest: Nela Richardson, chief economist and ESG officer at ADP, and a Bloomberg contributor
Hosts: Tom Keene and Scarlet Fu
Also on: Enda Curran, who leads Bloomberg's Federal Reserve coverage; Nikki Waller, who heads money coverage for Bloomberg News; Stacey Vanek-Smith, host of the Everybody's Business podcast; Taylor Nicole Rogers, Sarah Foster and Zijia Song of Bloomberg News; and Christina Ruffini of Bloomberg This Weekend
Published: 29 August 2026 on the Bloomberg Money feed
Watch on YouTube | Apple Podcasts | 43 min
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Key Takeaways
Nothing gets done on US debt or Social Security until a crisis makes voters demand it
"I think it's going to be very difficult to do till we have a crisis that convinces voters something has to happen." — Kenneth Rogoff
He said his book ends by predicting the change gets catalyzed by a crisis, "which will be painful"
The debt was built on an academic conviction that interest rates would fall forever
"The interest rates have reversed, but Washington hasn't, and a lot of academics hasn't." — Kenneth Rogoff
Growth is not the escape route, because the country is already rich enough to pay its bills
Mr. Rogoff listed rising old-age expenditure, a falling labor share, and capital being harder to tax than labor
The trigger is a shock the country cannot absorb, not a particular yield
A cyber war, an artificial-intelligence event, or "most likely China and Taiwan," on Mr. Rogoff's list for the next five years
A spectacular collapse in AI is coming, and it is not a reason to sell
Mr. Rogoff cited Shiller and Greenspan calling the stock market's top years early: "But timing was terrible."
Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech was read as hawkish, and the two-year yield moved 10 basis points
Mr. Curran called it a roadmap that course-corrects the July press conference
Mortgage rates held near 6.66% and the housing market has slowed to a crawl
July new home sales were the slowest in six months
Employers are handing workers a stipend instead of a group health plan
Companies are spending almost $19,000 per employee on health insurance, per Bloomberg's reporting
The pay bump from switching jobs has narrowed to about 2% for the average worker
Almost 14% in construction, and negative in retail and hospitality, per ADP
Nearly half of Americans saw real wage declines over the last four years, on ADP's research
"47% of Americans, according to our research, saw real wage declines over the last four years because of inflation." — Nela Richardson
72% of Americans say they feel guilty spending money on joy, even when they can afford it
New research from Ally Bank, reported by Bloomberg's Zijia Song
Warsh's First Speech as Fed Chair Was Read as Hawkish
Mr. Keene reported from Jackson Hole that the tone was "a more restrictive Fed." Enda Curran, who leads Bloomberg's Federal Reserve coverage and spent the pandemic in Hong Kong, said the speech landed well because it was clear on the points that had been muddled.
The chairman set a condition and named the tool. "I think the most important one was where he said if inflation doesn't slow down quickly enough to their liking, then they have work to do." — Enda Curran
Mr. Curran said the near-term tool named for controlling inflation was short-term interest rates. "So it was a hawkish message."
The speech was a course correction, not a decision. Mr. Curran called it a long speech and "something of a roadmap," and his clearest explanation yet of how he sees the economy, but said the question now is how he delivers in the months ahead.
He said it undoes some of the fallout from the July press conference, and that the reaction from officials and academics was broadly favorable
Everything now rides on the August inflation data, which Mr. Curran said sets up September as a very important meeting
On whether the Fed is behind other central banks, prompted by Mr. Keene asking whether New Zealand raises rates to get out in front of a US move, Mr. Curran said central banks sometimes try to get ahead of the Fed and that it depends on the cycle. The Fed has been accused of being behind the curve because other central banks hiked over the past year through the energy crisis, and is "not there yet, but certainly nudging towards that direction."
Two asides from Mr. Keene. He noted that Mr. Warsh had reached for some calculus and a second derivative in the text, which Mr. Curran confirmed, and gave credit to Chris Anstey for working through the speech paragraph by paragraph, and to Rich Miller and Craig Torres for the foundation of Bloomberg's Fed coverage.
Mr. Keene asked whether retirees can succeed with higher rates. Mr. Curran's answer was that higher rates are good for savings and worse for anyone trying to get on the housing ladder.
Ms. Fu's market check had two-year yields up eight basis points and traders pricing higher odds of a September hike, a 10 basis point move from trough to peak after the text was released at 10 a.m. Eastern, a firmer dollar, oil down about three-quarters of 1%, and stocks mixed after an early lift. She said Mr. Warsh made clear that recent CPI and PPI data were not entirely encouraging.
Ms. Fu opened the hour by describing what she called Bloomberg Money's dual mandate — how we make money, and how we save and spend it. Mr. Keene, describing the crowd at the symposium, said he was the youngest person in Jackson Hole and everybody else was 80 and retired, which he offered as a reason the venue suited a personal-finance program.
Mortgage Rates Held Near 6.66% and Housing Has Slowed to a Crawl
Nikki Waller, who heads money coverage for Bloomberg News, said the single biggest number her team watches is the mortgage rate, and that it barely moved this week.
"It kind of held steady, kind of surprisingly around 6.66, make of that what you will." — Nikki Waller
Rates now sit above last year's, and the effect shows up in the data. July new home sales were the slowest in six months.
Ms. Fu framed the week's bond-market volatility as fallout from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's intervention in the rates market. Ms. Waller said there is a lot of skepticism about Mr. Bessent's moves to calm it.
The Canada Tariffs Reach Auto Parts, Lumber and Paper
Ms. Fu noted the US is now putting 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods with Canada retaliating, and joked that her hockey sticks and maple syrup were about to cost more. Stacey Vanek-Smith, host of the Everybody's Business podcast, said they probably were.
The escalation surprised her. "The trade war really escalated, I think, in a way that nobody expected," Ms. Vanek-Smith said, adding it will hit Canada's economy much harder but reach American consumers too.
Auto parts are the new exposure. They had not been tariffed at all, and the threatened 50% rate makes both car repairs and cars more expensive.
Lumber and paper follow. Ms. Vanek-Smith said lumber lands on the housing industry alongside mortgage rates, and paper is expected to get a lot more expensive.
Delaware Is the New Florida, and It Is Already Straining
Ms. Fu asked where people are retiring. Ms. Waller said her team has been reporting out a migration story with an unexpected destination.
"Move over Florida. God's waiting room has moved to Delaware." — Nikki Waller
The evidence is IRS migration data, which Ms. Waller said shows tens of thousands of retirees moving into Delaware in the last few years, at the same time that costs are rising in Florida and it becomes less of a haven.
The draw is what she called some of the last affordable beach land on the East Coast, in towns she described as really cute
The influx is straining the state. "The number one hobby right now in Delaware is complaining about everybody who's moving to Delaware." — Nikki Waller
Traffic, a strained health system, and retirees struggling to get doctor and dentist appointments
The second-order effect is a labor problem. Ms. Waller said retirees create jobs, which may pull younger people in — but the retirees are buying up the best spots, so the newcomers have to find affordable housing. "And the cycle continues."
Data Centers Are the Rare Thing Both Parties Oppose
Ms. Fu said public opposition to data centers broke into the open this week across blue states and red states. The desk's answer was that it may be one of the few things everybody in the country agrees on right now, with the exception Ms. Fu supplied: President Trump.
The case for them is the AI build-out, and the objection is siting. The country needs data centers to power future AI and the growth everyone is excited about, and people do not want them in their backyards.
Virginia is the cost example. In the state with the biggest concentration of data centers, known as Data Center Alley, "electricity costs have gone up by 267% in the last five years."
The emotional example was a Kentucky farm. A farming couple "were offered $26 million by a data center to buy their 1,200-acre farm. And they responded with, kick rocks and don't come back."
Ms. Fu called it "some kind of NIMBY"
Rogoff: The Debt Was Built on a Near-Religious Belief That Rates Would Keep Falling
Mr. Keene opened by holding up a photo from Mr. Rogoff's Financial Times op-ed of Bill Clinton and Al Gore, and asked how the country went from the will to balance a budget in 1999 to where it is in 2026. Mr. Rogoff's short answer was two catastrophes and one idea.
The catastrophes were the global financial crisis and the pandemic. The larger issue was intellectual.
"A near-religious conviction among academic economists, in the journals, that interest rates were going to go down and down and down. So who cares how much debt you owe? You'll never have to pay interest on it." — Kenneth Rogoff
He said that view dominated the political landscape
"The interest rates have reversed, but Washington hasn't, and a lot of academics hasn't." — Kenneth Rogoff
Mr. Keene noted the professor was due to speak to the symposium at lunch about an hour later, and that his book Our Dollar, Your Problem is a required read with a new edition out. Mr. Rogoff, asked how he and Mrs. Rogoff were holding up ahead of their daughter's wedding a week away, said they were "trying to control the budget, just like the U.S. government."
Rogoff: The Country Is Already Rich Enough, So Growth Is Not the Answer
Mr. Keene raised Mr. Rogoff's Project Syndicate essay from the previous 72 hours, which he said goes right after Treasury Secretary Bessent, and put to him Glenn Hubbard's position at Columbia that you can run supply-side policy but may not get the growth. He asked whether there is any evidence the US can grow its way out.
The starting point is that the money is already there. "Let's start with the fact we're infinitely rich at the moment. Even if we grew really slowly, we ought to be able to pay our bills." — Kenneth Rogoff
Faster growth brings its own bills. Mr. Rogoff said more growth brings in further tax revenue but also demands on expenditures, specifically old-age expenditures, and that interest rates will probably go up if growth is fast.
The tax base is moving the wrong way. The labor share is falling, and "capital is harder to tax than labor."
He listed other reasons rates are rising, including the war in Iran and populism, "not just in the US, all over the world."
Asked whether he had been invited onto a task force, Mr. Rogoff said he had not, and added that he thinks the world of Kevin Warsh but is "just as grateful that I'm not on one of the task forces." Mr. Keene told the audience to note how smoothly that was done.
Rogoff: Entitlement Reform Waits for a Crisis, Because Voters Are Not Convinced
Mr. Keene recalled former Treasury Secretary Jack Lew saying on Bloomberg Money that a Social Security panel is a day-one job after a presidential election, and asked what the first task would be.
"Honestly, I think it's going to be very difficult to do till we have a crisis that convinces voters something has to happen. They're not convinced." — Kenneth Rogoff
The profession is only now shifting. Mr. Rogoff said some economists are finally coming around to the view that "maybe it wasn't the free lunch they said it was, that maybe someday we'll get inflation, financial repression, but it's not the dominant political position."
Running on it is a losing campaign. He said anyone trying to run in 2028 on fixing Social Security in more than a passing phrase would find that "people's eyes glaze over." Mr. Keene's summary of that was "silence in the rooms."
His book ends on the same forecast. It "predicts at some point this will end in a crisis of some sort to catalyze the change, which will be painful."
Rogoff: The Trigger Is a Shock, Not a Particular Yield
Mr. Keene, fogging up in the Wyoming rain, asked what level on the 10-year or the 30-year would be the point of crisis for the American public. Mr. Rogoff declined to name one.
The level is already difficult. "It's the debt level, the level we're at already is difficult," he said. "The crisis comes when a shock happens and you're not resilient."
The Iran war was a small version of it. He called it a mini shock "really, compared to what could happen."
His five-year list of candidates: "It could be a cyber war, it could be some kind of artificial intelligence thing, most likely China and Taiwan."
A war-type shock is what pushes rates up, and it disarms both policy tools. "The Fed can't just cut interest rates if the market's pushing them up. The government can't just print money if the market's pushing them up." — Kenneth Rogoff
He called that a big risk in the current environment
Rogoff: A Spectacular AI Collapse Is Coming, and Timing It Is Hopeless
Mr. Keene raised This Time Is Different, the book Mr. Rogoff wrote with Carmen Reinhart, and its treatment of public and private debt together, and asked whether more than $40 trillion of private credit and private equity — what he called Wall Street's new addiction — puts the country on that path now.
"Of course there's going to be some kind of spectacular collapse in AI at some point, which doesn't mean you should take your money out of AI." — Kenneth Rogoff
The precedent he reached for was Shiller and Greenspan, who "famously predicted the collapse of the stock market when it was at around $4,000. Then it went to 8,000. And they were right. And then it went to 6,000. It collapsed." His verdict: "But timing was terrible."
The policy conclusion is the opposite of waiting. The government needs to take steps, and "they'll be much smaller and easier steps if you do it sooner. I don't see any signs of that happening."
Rogoff: Congress Is Sidelined, and Every Other Rich Country Has the Same Problem
Mr. Keene invoked Barber Conable and the old House Ways and Means process, and asked where Congress fits into the crisis Mr. Rogoff sees coming.
"At the moment, they're kind of sidelined and paralyzed." — Kenneth Rogoff
He said many members on both sides of the aisle are aware of the problem, but that it is hard to catalyze action
The same failure runs across the rich world. He pointed to the UK and France, and to Emmanuel Macron: "Look what happened to Macron when he tried to raise the retirement age." With a French election under way, he said, "it's going to get murdered."
"And so it's the same thing all over the world"
Rogoff on Grade Inflation at Harvard: The Standard Moved, Not Him
A listener named Jason emailed in from Cambridge, and Mr. Keene put the question to the professor: is there grade inflation at Harvard economics?
"Well, we have a new policy coming in place to try to deal with it. But absolutely there was." — Kenneth Rogoff
He gave himself as the measurement. "When I came to Harvard, I learned from complaints from the dean that I was one of the easiest graders. I didn't change a thing. And then over 20 years, I find out from some of the kids, you're the hardest grader at Harvard."
On his reputation, put to him by Mr. Keene as brutal and ruthless: "I'm not trying to be. I'm trying to be fair and reasonably generous."
Keene's Closing Thought: The Most Important People at Jackson Hole Are the Press
Ms. Fu noted the raindrops audible under the Rogoff interview, and that Mr. Keene had been holding an umbrella for Lisa Abramowicz, with whom he was hosting a Surveillance special. She asked for his final thoughts on the symposium.
He named neither the guest nor the chairman. "Ken Rogoff's not the most important person here. Neither is Chairman Warsh. The most important people here are the media," Mr. Keene said, naming Mr. Curran and the daily grind Michael McKee goes through.
"It's vital that the press keep the message going in this time of distraction and tumult." — Tom Keene
Employers Are Handing Workers a Stipend Instead of a Group Health Plan
Ms. Fu said more US employers are opting out of group health insurance as they brace for large price increases, and giving employees stipends to buy their own. Bloomberg's Taylor Nicole Rogers reported the story.
The option is new. Ms. Rogers said it has only been around since 2020, and interest is rising because insurance has become so expensive. "Companies are spending almost $19,000 per employee these days."
The money is restricted, mostly. Employees are required to spend it on insurance; depending on the plan, anything left over can be used for whatever they want or taken home. The market they buy in is the Affordable Care Act marketplaces — whether those are thriving, Ms. Rogers said, "is in the eye of the beholder."
Ms. Fu pushed on the economics, which argue for large groups so the young and healthy subsidize the older and sicker. Ms. Rogers agreed, and said the pool is already breaking down.
"Those healthy, more profitable workers have been jumping off of plans altogether. So the economics are breaking to the point where some employers are saying, you know what, I'd rather be out of this business altogether." — Taylor Nicole Rogers
Employees are mostly annoyed. Some like the control — Ms. Rogers gave choosing a plan that covers a GLP-1 as the example — but the majority she heard from object to the administrative hassle, and to marketplace plans that are sometimes more expensive, with smaller networks of doctors and hospitals and higher deductibles.
Ms. Fu's analogy was the shift from traditional pensions to 401(k)s: the worker takes on the risk and the responsibility.
Richardson: Nobody Escapes the Health-Cost Elephant
Nela Richardson, chief economist and ESG officer at ADP, said the payroll company also sells benefits and retirement solutions, aimed particularly at small businesses trying to offset health-care costs.
The cost does not disappear when it moves. "Whether you shift it to the worker or you assume it as a small business," Ms. Richardson said, it still has to be dealt with. She added that "a lot of people work just for benefits. It's not just about the paycheck," and Ms. Fu offered Trader Joe's as the example people reach for.
Asked whether the stipend model exposes households to inflation more directly, Ms. Richardson said she thinks so, and that there is something to combined care and a managed service — while allowing that alternatives exist, from ADP and others.
"No one is really escaping the elephant in the market, which is health care costs are climbing." — Nela Richardson
The drugs are the driver, and the pricing window is short. GLP-1s for obesity and what she called genuinely revolutionary cancer treatments all come with a price tag. "Pharmaceuticals have a seven- to eight-year span in which they can recoup costs."
"To take advantage of these next-level care. You really have to pay up"
Richardson: What Worries Fast-Food Owners Is Affordable Housing
Ms. Fu raised new data showing a rise in fast-food restaurant bankruptcies, including Popeyes and Subway franchisees, against consumers seeking value at Walmart and McDonald's.
Her first answer was that the industry is simply hard, and not every franchise is a successful one. When she talks to owners, it is the fast-casual segment that seems to be doing better.
The surprise came from the fast-food conglomerates. What they are really concerned about is affordable housing, because location drives the business and the workers have to live near it.
"If you're not seeing the Popeyes on the way home, you may not think Popeyes on a Saturday evening." — Nela Richardson
If housing near the customer base is too expensive in San Francisco, Los Angeles or New York, "it's going to be hard to get the workers inside that door"
Ms. Fu added that franchisees report elevated costs for rent, wages and food.
Richardson: There Are Two Ways to Build Wealth in America, and Both Are in Play
Ms. Fu noted that owning and operating a business — often a franchise — has been one of the tried-and-true routes to wealth for Americans.
"Historically, there's only been two real ways to create wealth in the United States." Entrepreneurship first, housing second — and Ms. Richardson said it is the reason millions of people come to the country.
Most people choose housing, which she described as forced savings and the old-school way of building wealth
New business formation has not receded since the pandemic. Ms. Richardson said it has stepped up and keeps growing, credited AI with enabling a lot of small businesses, and pointed to the silver economy and an aging workforce taking their talent into new businesses.
Ms. Fu suggested boomers may be tapping home equity to do it. Ms. Richardson: "Absolutely."
Richardson: Switching Jobs Now Pays About 2%, and Nearly Half of Americans Have Lost Ground to Inflation
Ms. Fu asked whether changing jobs still produces a pay bump. It does, Ms. Richardson said, but the premium has narrowed significantly.
"We're looking at about 2% between switching and just changing for the average worker." — Nela Richardson
The average hides an enormous spread by industry.
"If you're a construction worker, expect almost 14% increase from your old job to your new job."
In retail, leisure and hospitality, the typical worker sees negative growth from switching, because Ms. Richardson said it is an industry that rewards loyalty and service over fast switching
Older workers switch jobs less often
The cumulative inflation number is the one that explains sentiment. Ms. Richardson cited a paper her colleagues at ADP Research and the University of Chicago published the previous week: "47% of Americans, according to our research, saw real wage declines over the last four years because of inflation. So this is why consumer sentiment is dismal."
Ms. Fu's framing was that the 3% raise most companies hand out was never going to compete with 7% inflation, even as inflation came down in the years after.
Richardson: Contractors Indexed Their Pay to Inflation, and Employees Could Not
Ms. Fu asked whether ADP sees the same wage trends among independent contractors.
ADP sees them, including single-person proprietorships. What contractors did, Ms. Richardson said, was build the increase into the contract itself.
"I actually have seen a 7% in the heart of our inflation peak, where contractors were asking for multi-year increases based on inflation." — Nela Richardson, who also cited 3% and 6% asks
Her conclusion: the savvy contractors indexed their wages to inflation "in a way that no worker would be able to do in a regular contract."
Ms. Fu asked whether employees should take their cue from contractors and construction workers. Ms. Richardson's answer sent the conversation back where it started: "Those jobs come without health benefits, by and large."
Richardson's Own Money: Dollar-Cost Averaging, Plus a Few Selective Bets
Asked the show's standing question — set-it-and-forget-it, or regular adjustments — Ms. Richardson said she does both.
The discipline she wants is the one a mortgage used to impose. She said the importance of housing was not just the appreciation but the fixed savings, "the discipline of putting the same amount of money into equity eventually every single month," and that someone without a house can replicate it in the market.
"It's not timing the market. It's time in the market." — Nela Richardson, quoting what she called an old book
Her method is a fixed amount into an ETF or a broad-based equity and bond portfolio every month, and she said starting young is what builds the wealth
She is not purely passive. "I'm all about selective bets," she said, adding that some startups look appetizing in a portfolio "especially if you're young enough to see it pay off."
The 529 as a Back Door Into a Roth IRA
Bloomberg's Sarah Foster reported on a use of 529 plans that opened up after Congress changed the rules in 2022: savers without children putting money in once they have hit their retirement contribution limits.
The misconception is that a 529 is for your children. "Anybody can have their own 529," Ms. Foster said — for yourself, for your children, for a niece or nephew.
Bloomberg spoke with people opening 529 accounts before they have children, or before they know whether they want them, treating unused funds as a future Roth IRA contribution
It is a last step, not a first one. Ms. Foster said the financial advisers Bloomberg spoke with think it "should probably kind of come in at the end, after you've maxed out these other accounts," and called the process very complicated.
The mechanics are restrictive. The funds have to sit in the 529 for five years, and "you can only move up to $35,000 over a lifetime." Transfers also have to fit under the annual Roth IRA contribution limit, so the money moves in increments.
Ms. Fu's summary: you have to keep a spreadsheet to take advantage of it, and there are plenty of aggressive savers who will.
72% of Americans Feel Guilty Spending Money on Joy
Bloomberg's Zijia Song reported new research from Ally Bank on a country that is still spending and no longer enjoying it.
"The new research by Ally Bank actually shows that 72% of Americans feel guilty about spending money on joy, things that bring them happiness, even when they can afford it." — Zijia Song
The belief underneath it is old. Ms. Song described a deeply ingrained view that saving is responsible and spending has to be justified, arriving at a moment of anxiety about the cost of living, unaffordable housing and the economic future.
The demographic split is narrow. Baby boomers and older feel slightly more comfortable spending, but Ms. Song said they remain very conscious of it, with their own anxiety about retiring without a regular paycheck. Younger adults are more conscious still.
"So people will spend money, but they just go through a lot of internal debate and stress that goes along with it"
Travel survives the cut. People told Bloomberg the experience is worth it, and worth more than a night out or a weekend dinner.
The workaround is a budget line for fun. Ms. Song said people designate money each month in savings or in a portfolio specifically for fun, which makes them feel less guilty spending it. Ms. Fu called it "the fun bucket."
Ms. Fu noted the turn from the post-pandemic YOLO period when people were traveling everywhere.
The Book Picks
Tom Keene's pick, chosen for Wyoming, was Backcountry Bear Basics: The Definitive Guide to Avoiding Unpleasant Encounters. Ms. Fu introduced it in his absence and reported no word on whether he met any bears.
Ms. Fu picked Prairie Fires by Caroline Fraser, a biography of Laura Ingalls Wilder. She said she was a fan of the Little House books, watched the Michael Landon television show, and watched the Netflix reboot with an Australian actor as Pa. The history behind them is bleaker than the story.
"The Ingalls' life on the prairie was painfully hard. It was a constant struggle. The family was impoverished. They were perpetually in debt, perpetually hungry, and not at all like the books and the TV shows depicted." — Scarlet Fu
Sarah Foster picked Fixed: Why Personal Finance Is Broken and How to Fix It, promised as a summer book and connected to summer by her own habit. "I haven't paid for a vacation in four years just because of my own spending on credit cards."
What weighs on her is who pays for it: "A lot of the points and miles that I'm rewarded with are financed through the credit card companies from people who are in debt." She said lower-income households disproportionately do not reap the benefits
Zijia Song picked The Trolls of Wall Street, by Bloomberg editor Nathaniel Popper, a history of the WallStreetBets subreddit that made a splash in the 2021 GameStop episode. She said she spends a lot of time on Reddit sourcing stories.
The community has changed: it now uses AI to inform its trading, and its relationship with Wall Street has changed with it. "No one's calling them the dumb money anymore."
Boots, Burning Man, an IBM Tennis App and Coyote vs. Acme
Christina Ruffini of Bloomberg This Weekend closed the hour with the show's standing question about what she spends money on.
She started by claiming she spends nothing, then produced the exception. "I have an extremely ridiculously expensive pair of cowboy boots." — Christina Ruffini
"I think they were like on sale for $350. I Googled them before I came. They're now $500 for these Frye harness boots." — Christina Ruffini, on boots she bought 10 years ago
She said they look the same as the day she bought them, she will never need another pair, and she has worn them to floods, to Haiti and to bars
Burning Man opens this weekend, and Ms. Fu asked whether the boots would work there. Ms. Ruffini said she could think of little she would less rather do, but conceded the boots would work in a desert climate, and that she is always surprised by how many people are secretly going. Ms. Fu said she had just learned the word "burner," and noted a lot of technology professionals now attend.
The US Open kicks off this weekend. Ms. Ruffini said the show had IBM's chief executive on last week about the tournament app, which lets viewers clock players' shots and breaks them down with data.
A professional tennis player told the show "the tennis players themselves don't really have the capacity to use it, but the coaches are using it" to guide serves and the like
The stated purpose is audience engagement
Coyote vs. Acme reaches theaters. Ms. Ruffini said the drama around it is that the studio executive has been cast as the villain, because the film was going to be shelved for the write-off, and that Will Forte has given interviews naming David Zaslav as the enemy of the movie. It is getting good reviews. Ms. Fu noted it is not a big studio release.
Mr. Rogoff's bottom line is that the arithmetic on US debt is not in dispute and the politics are immovable, so the correction arrives as a crisis rather than as a plan, and the smaller, easier steps that would avoid it are not being taken. Ms. Richardson's is that the American wage story of the last four years is a real-terms loss for nearly half the country, and that the two escape routes — a business or a house — are both getting more expensive to reach. The desk's is that the cost of a mortgage, a health plan and a data center's electricity are now the same story, and consumers have responded by spending anyway and feeling bad about it.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
ADP (Payroll processor that also sells benefits and retirement solutions, pitched at small businesses trying to offset climbing health-care costs; its research is the source of the job-switching and real-wage figures)
Ally Bank (Its new research found 72% of Americans feel guilty spending money on joy)
Affordable Care Act marketplaces (Where employees dropped from group plans have to buy coverage; Bloomberg's reporting found smaller doctor networks and higher deductibles)
Popeyes and Subway franchisees (Named in the rise in fast-food bankruptcies; Ms. Richardson said the conglomerates' own worry is affordable housing near their locations)
Walmart and McDonald's (The value trade consumers have run to as sentiment sours)
Trader Joe's (Ms. Fu's example of a job people take for the health insurance)
GLP-1s (The obesity drugs Ms. Richardson named alongside cancer treatments as the driver of health costs, and the benefit Bloomberg found some workers switching plans to get)
Everybody's Business (Stacey Vanek-Smith's weekly Bloomberg podcast, recorded Thursday and out Friday)
Frye harness boots (Christina Ruffini's one expensive purchase, bought a decade ago on sale and still made in the same model: "They still make them, but they look the same as the day I bought them")
IBM (Its chief executive was on Bloomberg This Weekend about the US Open app, which breaks players' shots down with data; coaches use it, players mostly don't)
Reddit and WallStreetBets (The subreddit behind the 2021 GameStop frenzy, and now, per Ms. Song, a community using AI to inform its trading)
Netflix (Carrying the Little House on the Prairie reboot Ms. Fu watched)
Coyote vs. Acme (Reaching theaters after a fight over its release, with Will Forte publicly naming David Zaslav as the obstacle)
Books & Resources Mentioned
Our Dollar, Your Problem – Kenneth Rogoff (Mr. Keene called last year's book a required read; a new edition is out, and it ends by predicting the debt problem resolves in a painful crisis)
This Time Is Different – Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff (Raised by Mr. Keene for its treatment of public and private debt together, against today's private equity and private credit)
Mr. Rogoff's Project Syndicate essay (Published in the previous 72 hours; Mr. Keene said it goes right after Treasury Secretary Bessent)
Mr. Rogoff's Financial Times op-ed (Source of the Clinton and Gore photo Mr. Keene held up, on the budget will of 1999)
ADP Research and University of Chicago paper on real wages (Published the previous week; the source of the 47% figure)
Backcountry Bear Basics: The Definitive Guide to Avoiding Unpleasant Encounters (Tom Keene's book pick, chosen for Jackson Hole)
Prairie Fires – Caroline Fraser (Scarlet Fu's pick; a biography of Laura Ingalls Wilder and the history behind the Little House books)
Fixed: Why Personal Finance Is Broken and How to Fix It (Sarah Foster's pick, and the reason she thinks about who funds her points-and-miles vacations)
The Trolls of Wall Street – Nathaniel Popper (Zijia Song's pick; a history of WallStreetBets by a Bloomberg editor)
Bloomberg.com/money (The show's new digital hub, where Taylor Nicole Rogers' health-stipend story and Sarah Foster's 529 story sit)
Apple Podcasts (The episode on Apple)
Episode page (The show's own page for this episode)
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