Ukraine has run out of Patriots, the only missiles it has that can bring down a ballistic missile, in a week when Kyiv took its sixth straight night of bombardment.
The war is usually read as a slow Russian advance paid for in casualties, and on the ground that is what it is. Marc Champion said the ground war is the half Russia is losing, and the air war it is winning is the one that decides this winter.
"So if you can freeze the Ukrainians to such an extent that you have, again, hundreds of thousands or even millions of Ukrainians crossing the border into Poland and to Eastern Europe, to Germany, to France, then you can sow dissent in Western Europe, especially in a year when you've got a series of elections in which pro-Russian, anti-Ukrainian, populist right parties look to be doing well in opinion polls."
Champion is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Europe, Russia and the Middle East, and wrote the column on Ukraine's coming winter that Sarah Holder quotes back to him here.
I listened to the full interview so you can skip it.
Here are the 8 takeaways that matter.
👤 Guest: Marc Champion, Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Europe, Russia and the Middle East, who wrote the column on Ukraine's winter this episode is built around
🎙️ Host: Sarah Holder, who hosts The Big Take for Bloomberg News
📰 Published: 1 September 2026 on YouTube (Bloomberg Podcasts)
🔴 YouTube | 🟣 Apple Podcasts | ⏱️ 14 min
Key Takeaways
Ukraine has run out of the only missile it has that stops a ballistic strike Russia is now making ballistic and cruise missiles faster than at any point in the war, by multiples
Russia is losing the ground war and winning the air war Its advance is slower than World War I trench warfare, and it has taken enormous casualties
Putin is weighing a mobilization that would add 300,000 troops by spring
The target this winter is Western European politics, not Ukrainian territory Freezing Ukrainians into leaving is how the pressure reaches Poland, Germany and France
A $20,000 decoy drone is built to make Article 5 not worth invoking Poland shoots them down at far greater cost and then takes no action in return
Only Spain and Greece still hold Patriots they have not handed over Greece keeps one eye on Turkey, and Champion calls it a fairly pro-Russian country
Trump's Ukraine deal was run by two real-estate developers, and it collapsed Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner negotiated in parallel with Russia's sovereign wealth fund
1. Six Nights Over Kyiv
Holder opened on the bombardment of the Ukrainian capital, which had run for six consecutive nights. Champion's answer was that the escalation is a response to Ukraine's own success.
Ukraine has only had the capacity to strike back at Russia in the same way for about a year, and has hit what Champion called embarrassing targets close to Moscow
Those strikes are why Putin changed approach, and the change was to escalate rather than to settle. Champion said they forced Putin to rethink how he would prosecute the war from here, and that what he settled on was escalation
The production gap is the second half of the advantage. "And the other part is that the Russians are producing more ballistic missiles and more cruise missiles than at any time before during the war by multiples."
Ukraine's interceptor stock is the constraint. "And Ukrainians have run out of Patriots, which are the only missiles that they have, really, that are capable of bringing down ballistic missiles."
The second thing that changed, he said, is Moscow's read of Washington: "And at the same time, you have a decision in Moscow that the United States is not going to deliver Ukraine to them on a plate."
2. 300K More Troops by Spring
Asked what Russia's capabilities and Ukraine's thinning defenses say about the state of the war, Champion split it in two. There is an air war and a ground war, and they are going in opposite directions.
On the ground it has been a bad year for Russia and a relatively good one for Ukraine. "So the Russians have really been able to move at a rate much slower than the trench warfare of World War I." He added that Russian casualties have been enormous, and that Ukraine's land drones and other new equipment are part of why
The advantage is temporary, because Russia catches up on each new technology in turn. Champion said this winter will be tough across the board
Ordinary Russians are more exposed to the war than they were. "They know it's a war, not a special military operation, as Putin called it."
The number Ukraine cannot match is manpower. Champion said Putin is considering another major mobilization toward the end of the year, while stressing that no decision is known: "That would get him to perhaps 300,000 extra troops by the spring."
3. Ratcliffe's Moscow Warning
Holder asked what is known about the CIA director John Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow, which had been described as secretive. Champion said the content of the meetings is not known and that reports conflict on whether he saw Putin at all.
What the itinerary implies is a warning rather than a negotiation. Ratcliffe also visited the Baltic states, and their response is what points to the message he carried. "It seems pretty clear that he went to tell the Russians that you need to think really hard and long before you take on NATO."
The agency's own sources have pointed the same way. "But there have been reports from sources within the CIA, basically saying that the Russians were contemplating some kind of test of NATO."
The test is already under way in hybrid form, he said: rising numbers of Russian drone incursions into the airspace of Romania, Moldova, Poland and the Baltic states, plus sabotage operations that have either happened or been stopped "One in particular in Germany, where an armed drone was found at the airport from which the planes leave from Germany to get weapons to Ukraine."
The Baltic governments are not expecting an invasion, which is the part that gets lost. Champion said they were clear about the concerns and equally clear that nobody thinks Russian troops are about to march across the border. "He's far too engaged in Ukraine to be able to do that."
He said the evidence is consistent with "clearly a framework in Russia where it's now understood that Europe and within that the UK are now enemy number one", with pressure on Europeans as the route to ending the war on Russia's terms
4. $20K Drones, No Article 5
Holder put it to him that nothing has yet triggered NATO's joint defense pact, and asked how close member states have come.
"This entire question lives in the gray area, which is why we call it hybrid warfare on the part of the Russians." The response has been hybrid too, he said, because a hybrid attack does not force anyone to the top of the escalation ladder
The reason nobody wants to climb that ladder is that escalation dominance against a nuclear power is untested. "It's not like NATO wants to be tested and wants to have the question of, will Donald Trump come to the aid of Estonia, is not a question you want to ask."
The economics of the incursions run against the defender. "And the Poles then have to start shooting them down at enormous cost, only to find out that they're decoy drones that cost $20,000, if that."
Poland did not call an Article 5 violation and took no retaliatory action either, Champion said, "precisely because they don't actually want to escalate"
5. Europe Is the Weak Point
Holder asked how strong European support for Ukraine still is, four and a half years into the war. Champion answered from the Russian side of the ledger, where it is both stronger than expected and still the thing most likely to break.
Europe's cohesion has been the surprise of the war for Moscow. "It's difficult to overestimate just how little the Russians think of Europe as a kind of cohesive geopolitical power."
Russia's plan still runs through cutting the supply off. "If they can only get that supply to dry up, then they will be able to make their sheer force of numbers and superior arms industry count on the battlefield and wrap this up on their terms and get Ukraine into the position it wants, which is essentially as a vassal state."
6. Refugees as the Weapon
Holder read Champion's own column back to him — that as fall and winter loom, the West "is sorely underestimating both the threat approaching in Ukraine and the potential for it to spill across Europe's borders" — and asked why this winter looks so dangerous.
Champion prefaced the answer by disowning the obvious phrase for it: "I hate the word perfect storm"
Two Russian aims converge on one tactic. Moscow believes it has an opening to break Ukrainian will, and it has concluded it needs to put pressure on Europe. Champion said the two "meld in the form of refugees"
"So if you can freeze the Ukrainians to such an extent that you have, again, hundreds of thousands or even millions of Ukrainians crossing the border into Poland and to Eastern Europe, to Germany, to France, then you can sow dissent in Western Europe, especially in a year when you've got a series of elections in which pro-Russian, anti-Ukrainian, populist right parties look to be doing well in opinion polls." The timing is the point: a refugee wave lands in a year of elections in which pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian parties are already polling well
7. Who Still Has Patriots
Asked what would have to change in the next few weeks or months, and how likely that is, Champion set out a two-part requirement and then explained why neither part is easy to fill.
"So it's a very binary equation. You have ballistic missiles coming at you, and you either have to destroy them at source or destroy them in the air when they're on the way." That means offensive weapons with enough range and a number of Patriots, and Ukraine needs both rather than either
Almost nobody has spare interceptors to give. "And the two obvious ones that have stocks and haven't really handed over a lot of them are Spain and Greece." Spain has provided some, and Champion said it would take a lot of persuasion to provide more
Greece's stock is spoken for by a different rivalry. "Greece is always concerned about Turkey." Ukraine is far away, and he described Greece as a fairly pro-Russian country in general
"There just aren't very many Patriots."
8. Trump's Deal Fell Apart
Holder noted that Trump had campaigned on ending the war in a day and that his administration has since entertained a Russia-friendly peace plan, and asked how Putin reads him with two years of the term left.
"I think Ukraine for Trump has definitely slid down the list of priorities." Champion said Trump was never interested in defending Ukraine for geopolitical or moral reasons
What Trump wanted was the win plus something extractable — critical mineral deals, trade deals, privileges for American oil companies going back into Russia
The composition of the negotiating team is the evidence for that reading. "It's no coincidence that they were held by Steve Witkoff, who's a real estate developer, Jared Kushner, who is Trump's son-in-law, but also a developer." Champion described twin-track talks, with the political discussion of the war running in parallel with an economic one, sometimes in the same room, alongside the head of the Russian sovereign wealth fund
The trade was Ukraine for an economic deal, and it did not happen. Champion said it has fallen apart and Trump was not able to make it work
He has not walked away entirely — intelligence sharing continues, and ending it would be a real problem for Ukraine. "But the Russians have correctly assessed that he is no longer committed enough."
Bonus Insights
Holder's own framing of the American position was that the Iran war has both depleted US weapons capacity and distracted the country, which she offered as her premise rather than as something Champion had established
She dated the conflict at four and a half years when asking about European resolve, which is the yardstick the segment measures European support against
Champion twice made the same point about cycles rather than trends: Ukraine's technological edge on the ground is the front half of a cycle Russia has repeatedly closed, so he expects the current picture to look worse later
Champion's bottom line is that the decisive front this winter is Western European public opinion rather than the trench line, and that whether Ukraine can hold it comes down to whether anyone hands over enough Patriots in time.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
NATO (The alliance Champion says Russia is testing in hybrid form precisely because a hybrid attack does not force an Article 5 decision)
Central Intelligence Agency (Its director made the secretive Moscow trip, and reports from its own sources say Russia was contemplating a test of NATO)
Patriot (The only missile Ukraine has that can bring down a ballistic missile, and the one it has run out of)
Books & Resources Mentioned
Ukraine Is In More Danger Than It Seems – Marc Champion (The column Holder quotes back to him, on the West underestimating what is coming in Ukraine and how far it could spread)
Russia's Escalating Hybrid Attacks Put Europeans in a Bind (The Bloomberg News piece the show pointed listeners to, on the sabotage and drone incursions discussed here)
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