MarketBeat Monday Sep 14, 2026 1h 4m 58m saved
With Thomas Hughes, MarketBeat contributing analyst · Chris Markoch, MarketBeat analyst
Nvidia, Oracle, AMD and Micron all sold off the same morning three AI CEOs warned their own industry was moving too fast — and MarketBeat's two analysts spent Monday's live call-in show arguing the market had the story backwards.
Every other financial outlet was running the AI-safety headlines as a warning sign. Thomas Hughes and Chris Markoch used them as a shopping list, and along the way flagged a data artifact that has been misreading "institutional buying" across the market all quarter.
"Curtailing the advancement of models does not mean the end of AI infrastructure."
Thomas Hughes, a MarketBeat contributing analyst since 2019 who has worked as an independent market analyst since 2010, and Chris Markoch, a MarketBeat analyst who spent his earlier career in marketing, took viewer-submitted tickers live for roughly an hour, working through the AI selloff, this week's Fed decision, and the data-center and consumer-staples names viewers asked about.
The full episode is covered here so you can skip it. 64 minutes of audio, 8 minutes of reading.
Here are the 5 calls that matter.
Key Takeaways
The AI-safety selloff hit the infrastructure stocks, not the model companies — Nvidia, Oracle, AMD and Micron all fell on fear the market may be misreading
Hughes expects the Fed to hold this week, against a Fed Watch tool showing a 92% market-implied probability of a hike
A widely cited "institutional buying" data spike this quarter is a data artifact, not new buying — one pension fund restating its holdings gets picked up by tracking sites as a fresh purchase
Michael Burry is reportedly short Nebius (up 152% year to date) and long Lululemon, a name he says could go private given its compressed valuation
AXTI's specialty optical chips are pricing in so much growth that the stock is a value only two years out, despite near-term valuation concerns
Credo and Vertiv are framed as the same trade — AI data-center infrastructure — hitting different points of the same execution story
1. Buy the AI Selloff
Asked about the morning's AI-safety headlines from OpenAI and Anthropic executives, Hughes and Markoch gave the same market reaction two different explanations.
Hughes: regulation talk is not a buildout stop
Certainly it's scary for these guys to come out thinking that we're advancing AI too fast. People have been saying that for a long time. But I think that the market may be misreading what they're saying, because curtailing the advancement of models does not mean the end of AI infrastructure.
Thomas Hughes
The AI infrastructure buildout's going to continue.
Thomas Hughes
Markoch: watch who benefits from the fear
I hear this, Bridget, and I instantly go back to my former career in marketing and I say nothing sells better than fear. And that's what you're doing. It's fear. It's fear peddling.
Chris Markoch
I'm skeptical about the concerns when they're coming from a group of companies that would stand to benefit a lot from seeing AI be regulated.
Chris Markoch
2. The Fed Sits This One Out
Hughes went against the market's own pricing on this week's FOMC decision, built on a view about what is actually driving inflation right now.
A near-certain hike, and a contrarian call against it
There's a lot of speculation right now that they're going to hike rates. I think that the market is pricing in a near certainty. The Fed watch tool is showing a 92% chance at this meeting and 98% by December, which is still pretty high. It's almost a near certainty, but I think not. I think the Fed's going to sit and wait.
Thomas Hughes
His reasoning is about the source of the inflation, not its size
I think that right now inflation is being driven by oil prices more than anything else, and we're going to see an inflation spike again because oil prices are spiking right now. But I think that there are some structural forces in play that are going to cause oil prices to really crash next year.
Thomas Hughes
He said hiking into an oil-driven spike risks a policy reversal: raise now, hurt the economy, then cut back toward zero within the year if the Fed overreacts to a price move it does not control.
3. The Bad Institutional Data
Asked whether heavy institutional buying in Credo and Vertiv should reassure investors riding out the AI-fear selloff, Hughes flagged a data-reading trap he said is showing up across the market this quarter.
A widely reported buying spike is a filing artifact, not new demand
This is an example of why you got to be real careful with data that we get on the internet. As good as Market Beat is, and other websites too, the way that these institutions report their data sometimes causes problems. I've seen this quarter across a lot of companies, this big spike in Q3. But this is due to institutions like California State Teachers Retirement System. They didn't actually buy $18 billion in shares this quarter. They just restated their holdings, and it's being picked up as if it was a new buy.
Thomas Hughes
He said the underlying conclusion still holds — institutions are supporting the market — but the specific Q3 spike that has been circulating is overstated.
4. The Infrastructure Trade
On the individual data-center names viewers asked about, Hughes framed the sector's problem as a timing issue rather than a demand issue.
On AXTI, a specialty optical-chip maker
AXTI is a specialty semiconductor company. They've been struggling for years, but now they're important again because of optics and photonics. They make specialty chips that are important for high-speed optical components and data centers.
Thomas Hughes
On the Credo/Vertiv group broadly
This is an execution story. They've got the backlog. They got the demand. They just need to spend the money to build the facilities, and that's what's keeping the stock price under pressure. They're definitely susceptible to news like we saw today cause them all to pull back. But I think that they're all trading at viable levels right now. They've got pretty strong fundamental outlooks.
Thomas Hughes
He said Credo makes connectivity components for the servers themselves while Vertiv makes the cooling and power systems the data centers run on — different pieces of the same buildout, both trading down on the same fear.
5. Burry's Short and Long
Asked about Michael Burry's reported positioning, Markoch walked through both sides of the bet.
The short: Nebius, up big and facing AI-buildout fear
It's up 152% year to date, and it's been down 23% in the last month. I can see a scenario where Michael Burry's jumping on the train now and expecting that this might pull back some more.
Chris Markoch
The long: Lululemon, on a going-private thesis
It is. It is. And actually, for someone that is known best for the quote-unquote big short, he's actually taking a long position in Lulu. He sold his full position in Flutter Entertainment, and then he took that and he bought Lulu. He doesn't like the opportunity in Flutter right now,
Chris Markoch
He says the valuation's become compressed and he's citing that it may not be public for very much longer.
Chris Markoch
Markoch said the trade also reflects reported friction between Lululemon's founder and its current management over the brand's direction — a detail that, if accurate, would feed a going-private case independent of the valuation argument alone.
Bonus Insights
On Clorox, a state-of-the-consumer read from the CEO herself
The CEO has said just about a week ago that they see the strain on the consumer in the grocery aisle. They say the consumer is under stress.
Chris Markoch
Markoch's preferred quality retail name is Williams-Sonoma, for its high margins, entrenched higher-end consumer base, and sustained buybacks and dividends — offered as the safer way to play a rotation out of AI names into retail.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
Nvidia (One of the AI infrastructure names that sold off on the AI-safety headlines; Hughes called the drop a buying opportunity)
Michael Burry's Scion Asset Management (Reportedly short Nebius and long Lululemon, per the analysts' reading of his recent regulatory filings)
California State Teachers' Retirement System (The pension fund whose restated holdings, not a new purchase, produced the misleading Q3 "institutional buying" spike Hughes flagged)
Listen to the full episode
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