Mark Dixon runs the world's largest workspace provider and expects the daily commute to be extinct within fifteen years. That is an unusual thing for a landlord of offices to forecast, and Orianna Rosa Royle's reporting is that his own research and the generational data behind it point the same way.
"His research projects that daily commuting will be extinct and that kids will think it's mad stuff that people traveled a hundred miles to go and sit at her desk and do the exact same job they could have done at home."
Royle runs Fortune's success desk and reported the Dixon interview, and has put the same question to other chief executives.
I listened to the full segment so you can skip it.
Here are the 5 takeaways that matter.
👤 Guest: Orianna Rosa Royle, who runs Fortune's success desk and reported the interview with IWG's chief executive that this segment is built on
🎙️ Host: Ellie Austin, who presents Fortune Daily from New York
📰 Published: 31 August 2026 on YouTube (Fortune)
🔴 YouTube | ⏱️ 19 min
Key Takeaways
The man who rents out offices for a living expects daily commuting to be extinct by 2040
Gen Alpha's stated ceiling is a 30-minute commute, well below today's average
An office-first culture is, on his argument, incompatible with winning in AI
CEO age predicts remote policy, on a study of 8,000 workers
The younger the chief executive, the more likely the company is remote-first
Proximity bias is the real cost of hybrid, and it vanishes only when everyone is remote
1. Commuting Dead by 2040
Royle introduced herself and the piece she had written.
"Mark Dixon is the CEO of IWG, the world's largest workspace provider."
"His research projects that daily commuting will be extinct and that kids will think it's mad stuff that people traveled a hundred miles to go and sit at her desk and do the exact same job they could have done at home."
The forecast is a slow burn rather than a repeat of 2020. She contrasted it with the pandemic, when everyone moved home overnight, and said this data suggests a gradual shift that lands around Dixon's 2040 date
2. Gen Alpha's 30-Min Limit
The generational evidence is the part with a number attached.
"The research that his company conducted shows that Gen Alpha not only don't want to commute to the office, they believe that the workplace will be fully flexible by 2040 and they won't commute for more than 30 minutes which is way less than the average person currently commutes."
The commercial consequence is a hiring one. "So, if they want to attract the largest next generation of workers in the future, they're going to have to bend to Gen Alpha's demands."
3. Office-First and AI
The argument Royle heard is not about preference but about competitiveness.
"So Mark Dixon as well as other CEOs I've spoken to argue that an office first culture isn't really serious if you want to have a company that is winning in the age of AI."
She attributed the view to Dixon and to other chief executives she has interviewed rather than to one source
4. Younger CEOs Go Remote
The transition mechanism Royle described is demographic replacement in the corner office.
The older cohort has to leave first. As chief executives who prefer traditional values and being in the office retire and age out, she said, younger ones become the bosses and bring their preference for working from home
There is external evidence for the link. "The National Bureau of Economic Research studied 8,000 workers and found that the younger their CEO is, the more likely they are to be a remote first leader."
She tested the forecast against a wilder one. "But then you have to look at other things that other tech leaders are saying, which is that we may be working on the moon by 2045." Measured against the predictions in circulation, she said, this is one of the less crazy ones
5. Proximity Bias
Royle gave the disadvantage as well as the case.
"The main one being proximity bias that if you have some people that are hybrid and in the office and some people that aren't in the office, bosses tend to favor and promote and give opportunities to the people that are around them."
The fix she describes is going all the way, not halfway. If the entire office is remote, she said, that effect disappears — which makes hybrid the arrangement that carries the cost
Bonus Insights
Austin's own reaction was a hope rather than a question. She introduced the segment by asking why the commute might be dead by 2040 and added "here's hoping", which is the only editorial position anyone takes in the segment
Royle's bottom line is that the case against commuting is now being made by the industry that profits from offices, that the generation entering work will not accept more than half an hour of it, and that the change arrives as chief executives are replaced rather than as a policy decision.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
IWG (Mark Dixon's company, the world's largest workspace provider, and the source of the research behind the 2040 forecast)
National Bureau of Economic Research (Whose study of 8,000 workers found younger chief executives are more likely to run remote-first companies)
Fortune (Royle's publication and the outlet that carried her interview with Dixon)
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