ESG Currents Sep 16, 2026 35m 28m saved
With Dr. Hansi Singh, founder and CEO of Planette AI
Planette AI's Hansi Singh has watched this year's El Niño intensify from a January call of "moderate" to a projected 3.2°C above normal ocean surface temperatures — a strength she says has no precedent in the observational record.
Most investors have never priced a forecast this far out. The buyers of this kind of seasonal weather data, she says, are still a small circle of specialized hedge funds and energy trading desks, while everyone else plans for the next storm rather than the next year.
"The one area that people are actively using this information has been certain highly specialized hedge funds, for example, as well as certain energy trading desks as well."
Hansi Singh, founder and CEO of Planette AI, builds seasonal forecasts from the same physics-based climate models used to simulate the atmosphere a thousand years out, and her calls this year flagged China's ports for cyclone disruption, Europe's drought-driven heat, and now a wildfire calendar for California months before the season starts.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 35 minutes of audio, 7 minutes of reading.
Here are the 5 insights that matter.
Key Takeaways
This El Niño is now targeting 3.2°C above normal ocean surface temperatures, which Singh says is unprecedented in the observational record "Now we're talking about Godzilla"
Hedge funds and energy trading desks are the only buyers of seasonal weather forecasts today — not reinsurers, not most businesses
Chinese ports saw 24-hour rainfall anomalies of about 10 inches from tropical cyclones this year, enough to shut down shipping on its own
The Panama Canal loses up to half its water in a strong El Niño year, and climate change is making Central America structurally drier, not just this year
California should expect a lot of fire weather in December and January, on the same rain-then-drought mechanism that produced the January 2025 L.A. fires
Indonesia, usually "lush, tropical paradise," is burning right now, with haze already reaching Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore
The Amazon is heading into a weak wet season and will see fire activity in early 2027
The US faces reduced wind and reduced solar output at the same time, a rare overlap for renewables forecasting
1. The Hedge Fund Trade
Asked who actually uses a forecast that runs a year out rather than seven days, Singh named a narrow list.
Seasonal forecasting has a tiny customer base today
The one area that people are actively using this information has been certain highly specialized hedge funds, for example, as well as certain energy trading desks as well.
Hansi Singh
She said the payoff for the traders who do use it has been direct this year, pointing to the unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season that El Niño tends to produce.
A quiet Atlantic season would have paid off for anyone holding the right instrument
I guess if I bought cat bonds for Atlantic hurricane activity, I would be doing pretty well. And I'd be really happy with myself right now.
Hansi Singh
2. The China Ports Story
The other side of the same El Niño pattern pushed tropical cyclones toward the Central Pacific and, early in the season, into China.
A single storm can shut a port down on rainfall alone
When some of these tropical cyclones hit, we get 24-hour rainfall anomalies that are on the order of 10 inches, right? So just kind of these deluges that just kind of knock out operations.
Hansi Singh
A combination of those sorts of perils means that you're going to have disruptions in shipping.
Hansi Singh
She added that the pattern has since shifted: as the season wears on, El Niño's cyclones increasingly arc away from China, which is "a reprieve" even as Hawaii stays in the crosshairs.
3. Panama's Water Problem
Singh said the canal's exposure to El Niño is structural, not a one-off — and that this year's near-miss should not be read as the problem solved.
A strong El Niño directly starves the canal's rainy season
First of all, whenever there's these strong El Nino events, it does not rain in Panama. Their rainy season becomes very anomalously dry. Sometimes they'll be at even a 50% water deficit or more because of this event.
Hansi Singh
Climate change makes the drying a trend, not just an El Niño effect
With climate change, Panama is drier. Central America is drier.
Hansi Singh
She said the canal got lucky this year — heavy rain in February and March refilled it before the deficit bit — and tied the stakes directly to the chip supply chain.
Her example is the route nothing else can replace
You have to move goods, right? How else are you going to get components of semiconductor chips from mines in Brazil to Taiwan? There's no way that you can do it without the Panama Canal.
Hansi Singh
Panama is roughly halfway through a $15 billion investment cycle meant to prevent a repeat of the 2023-24 water crisis, Andrew Stevenson, the Bloomberg Intelligence host, noted — new canal zones at different heights so one grounded ship class does not stop the whole waterway.
4. California's Fire Calendar
Singh walked through the mechanism that turns a wet winter into next year's fire season, using the January 2025 Los Angeles fires as the case study.
Wet years grow the fuel; dry years burn it
There was a 23-24 super El Nino. The impacts of that over California were not huge, interestingly. But they did get a ton of rainfall in early 2024.
Hansi Singh
That rain grew shallow-rooted shrubs that dried out fast once the rains stopped early, setting up the state's driest months.
The dry season is the fuse; a wind event is the spark
The dry season in California tends to be from March, April, all the way to November or December.
Hansi Singh
By the time we got to January, things were so dry that then there was a Santa Ana wind event. And that often tends to be the instigating event for fire weather in that region.
Hansi Singh
Applied forward to this year's much wetter setup, her read is a caution rather than an all-clear.
Her forecast for this winter
For the state of California, this is one of those things where it's probably a good idea to expect a lot of fire weather in December and January.
Hansi Singh
5. Where It Goes Next
Asked to flag what deserves more attention over the next six months, Singh moved quickly through a list of places already showing the signal.
Indonesia is burning out of season
The other thing that we're seeing right now is areas that are usually not burning are burning. This is particularly, interestingly, Indonesia. When you think of Indonesia, you just think lush, tropical paradise with plenty of rain, but it's on fire right now.
Hansi Singh
She said haze from those fires is already reaching Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore, and pointed to the Amazon and Europe's rivers next.
The Amazon's dry season is arriving weak, not wet
The Amazon is going to be on fire this year, unfortunately.
Hansi Singh
Europe's river-shipping problem isn't over either
Right now, the Danube and the Rhine are very, very low in terms of water levels. And this is disrupting trade and movement of goods in that region, interestingly.
Hansi Singh
On renewables, she flagged an overlap that matters for forecasting power output rather than just weather.
Wind and solar can go weak together, not just separately
Over the U.S., for example, we expect areas of reduced wind and areas of reduced solar. The fact that they're occurring at the same time is significant.
Hansi Singh
She named Australia as the other region facing a multi-month wind drought, and said East Africa's mining and agriculture sectors are the ones to watch for unusually wet conditions.
Singh's forecasts run a year ahead of the seven-day window most weather products cover, and this year's read is that the disruption is not concentrated in one place: ports, canals, wildfire risk and renewable output are all carrying the same El Niño signal at once, for months rather than days.
Bonus Insights
Her models can simulate climates humans never observed
These are models that I can look a thousand years into the future. I can look at the Cretaceous. I can look at snowball Earth, right?
Hansi Singh
Planette AI is building a product specifically for river-dependent supply chains, working with a company called N4EA to connect low water levels in rivers like the Amazon's to the agricultural produce that moves on them.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
Planette AI (Hansi Singh's climate-forecasting company, specializing in one-week-to-one-year seasonal outlooks used today mainly by specialized hedge funds and energy trading desks)
Bloomberg Intelligence (Publishes the ESG Currents/Sustainability Currents podcast; host Andrew Stevenson is its senior climate analyst)
Listen to the full episode
🟣 Apple Podcasts | 🔗 Episode page
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