Bloomberg Surveillance Sep 21, 2026
With Dana Telsey, CEO and Chief Research Officer of Telsey Advisory Group
Retail chief executives and finance chiefs kept using one word at the conferences that followed earnings, Dana Telsey said: acceleration.
The standard read on the American consumer this year is the K-shaped economy, where the top keeps spending and the bottom stops. Telsey does not think that is what the numbers show. The low end is more discerning, she said, but it is still buying.
"Even the lower end. They're definitely more discerning because whether it's higher gas prices, food prices, but everyone is looking for something new."
Telsey runs Telsey Advisory Group and covers retail from French luxury down to the big-box chains. She had come into the studio straight off a red-eye, and her analysts were booked to visit two of the companies she was asked about ahead of their investor days.
The full segment is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 8 insights that matter.
Key Takeaways
Acceleration is the word retail executives kept using at the conferences after earnings
She counted it in sales, in traffic, in customers, in new store openings and in turnarounds
North America is the strongest region for luxury, with Europe's consumer weak and Chinese shoppers staying home and buying local brands
Hermès is opening a permanent store in Williamsburg after a pop-up proved the revenue
She does not think there is a K-shaped consumer, and cited Jamie Dimon saying the same
Store closures are over, and malls are producing some of the best commercial property returns
Gen Z is going to stores in groups and trying clothes on together
Home Depot needs housing to move before it does, and the same goes for Lowe's and Williams-Sonoma
Nike put LVMH's Alexander Arnault on its board, which she read as luxury and sportswear blending
1. Hermès In Williamsburg
Tom Keene opened on what he called the oddest story in New York this year: Hermès putting money into industrial Brooklyn, among people in Japanese jeans that cost $400 a pair. Telsey confirmed the location and the logic.
The store follows brand awareness, not income
You look at the neighborhoods where they're going, they're going where the customer's aware of their brand name, and they're buying there.
Dana Telsey
Asked whether there is evidence it works, she pointed at the test that came first.
A pop-up is how a permanent store gets underwritten
Pop-ups are the entryway to a permanent store if you get the revenues you thought you got.
Dana Telsey
2. Why Luxury Is Weak
Keene asked why luxury, and French luxury in particular, is flat on its back. Telsey gave two reasons and then said where the money still is.
Europe's consumer is weak and the Chinese shopper is not traveling
Number one, Europe consumer is very challenged lately. You're not getting tourists and you're not getting the Chinese traveling. More Chinese are spending on some of their own local brands.
Dana Telsey
North America is carrying the category
And the region that's the strongest is North America.
Dana Telsey
The next set of sales numbers lands in October, and she said the strength will show up in the brands' own stores rather than in wholesale, pointing to the Dior flagships opened over the past year.
3. The Word Is Acceleration
Asked for the number one theme for her clients, Telsey started with tired brand names reinventing themselves, naming Gap and Victoria's Secret as businesses that have turned. Then she reported what she had heard directly from management teams over the two weeks since earnings.
One word kept coming up in the meetings
As you go through what they're talking about, what is a word that's coming in with many of them? The word acceleration.
Dana Telsey
She then sorted the word into its different forms. Sales trends are accelerating at Victoria's Secret and Estée Lauder. Traffic is accelerating at FIGS and Kroger. New store openings are accelerating at Reformation. Transformation is accelerating at Macy's, and she told the hosts to walk across the street to Bloomingdale's and look at the new brands. G3 has just bought Marc Jacobs from LVMH. And customer counts are accelerating too.
Ulta's loyalty program has 47 million members
Some with customer gains. You look at Ulta, which has 47 million loyalty members.
Dana Telsey
4. No K-Shaped Consumer
Paul Sweeney asked how the bottom of the K-shaped economy shapes her research coverage. Telsey pushed back on the premise itself.
She does not think the K-shaped economy exists
I think, frankly, look what Jamie Dimon said a couple of weeks ago, where there isn't a K-shaped economy.
Dana Telsey
Higher gas and food prices have made the low-end shopper more discerning, she said, but the demand for something new has not gone away. Beauty products are now sold through the off-price chains and shoppers are buying them there. Her example of what that demand looks like was a toy.
People are queuing for squishy dumplings
Squishy dumplings is the hottest toy out there. People are waiting online for it.
Dana Telsey
Neither host had heard of them. Sweeney started searching for them on air.
5. Home Depot Needs Housing
Keene relayed a question emailed in by Joe Feldman: Home Depot has produced single-digit returns since COVID, so is there a strategy to change that, or are the iconic big-box names resigned to it. Telsey said the answer is not in the companies.
Nothing moves until housing does
Basically, a return of housing. Anything where you see a housing pickup, the acceleration of Home Depot will be there, just like the acceleration of Lowe's.
Dana Telsey
She added Williams-Sonoma to the same list. What is working in the meantime is the cheaper, softer end of the category, and she gave the reason.
People refresh a home the way they refresh a wardrobe
But they've been comping very nicely because just like people are refreshing their wardrobes and clothing, they're refreshing their wardrobes and home. It's been six years now since COVID.
Dana Telsey
6. Stores Stopped Closing
Sweeney said the industry has spent more than a decade talking about right-sizing the department store footprint, and asked where that process now stands. Telsey said it is essentially finished.
The closures are done
Shutting stores, for the most part, you're pretty much done on shutting stores.
Dana Telsey
And the property has turned
When you look at commercial real estate, you're seeing some of the biggest returns lately on malls.
Dana Telsey
Chains have reset their box counts, Macy's among them, and reopened reimagined stores. The customer she named as the reason is the youngest one.
Gen Z shops in groups
And you're seeing Gen Z teenagers like going to stores. They like going with their friends. They like trying on together.
Dana Telsey
A store is somewhere to go
It's a destination, and there's traffic.
Dana Telsey
7. The Sneaker Wars
Keene brought up On, the Swiss brand backed by Roger Federer, signing Kylian Mbappé and Thierry Henry to sell soccer shoes, and noted Nike trading down. Sweeney put the number on it: Nike's stock is down 40% this year.
Everyone is copying the same playbook
Well, one of the things you see is everyone wants to emulate who these big stars are.
Dana Telsey
More partnerships and collaborations follow, she said. One of her analysts was visiting On the following week ahead of its investor day, Adidas has one too, and Nike's is in November — three companies about to reset their growth algorithms in public.
Nike is rebuilding through wholesale and new product
Well, basically, one of the things they're doing now is it is resetting, so they have wholesale partnerships like with Dick's Sporting Goods.
Dana Telsey
Then the piece of news she thought the hosts had missed.
LVMH's Alexander Arnault joined Nike's board
Alexander Arnault went on the board of Nike.
Dana Telsey
Keene asked her to explain grown men wearing white sneakers with dark suits. Telsey said it is a trend and that it is comfortable, and that being wearable with a suit is a large part of why On sells.
8. 57th And Fifth
Keene finished on the four corners of 57th Street and Fifth Avenue, where Tiffany, the Louis Vuitton building, Van Cleef & Arpels and Bulgari sit, and asked which is the most interesting story from here. Telsey picked two, Louis Vuitton and Tiffany, and noted what Tiffany is doing with restaurants through its Blue Box Cafe.
The Louis Vuitton trunks are the most photographed thing in the city
And frankly, though, you look at all the pictures that are being taken of those trunks of LV. It's the most Instagrammable place in Manhattan.
Dana Telsey
Keene asked about Tiffany's link necklace, which he said everyone wants. Telsey confirmed both the economics and the constraint.
They are printing money and they are out of stock
They do. They mint and they're out of stock. That's the other thing also.
Dana Telsey
Bonus Insights
The red-eye
Sweeney told the audience that Telsey had come straight from an overnight flight. She said she still takes them, and that there is productivity in a red-eye because it leaves you in the city for the whole day. Keene used it to complain about a new business-class seat he did not fit into.
The rest of the hour
Telsey took the fourth segment of the program. The same hour carried Torsten Slok of Apollo Global Management on the AI-driven economy, Meghan Robson of BNP Paribas on credit, Alexis Crow of PwC on the AI trade and Bruce Wolfe of Alight on retirement income.
Telsey's bottom line is that the American consumer is still buying and the constraint on retail is category-specific rather than economy-wide: luxury is waiting on Europe and the Chinese traveler, the big-box home names are waiting on housing, and everything that is working, from off-price beauty to reimagined department stores to brands with a new story, is working because the shopper wants something new rather than something cheaper.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
Telsey Advisory Group (Her firm, which covers retail from French luxury to the big-box chains; Joe Feldman's emailed question and the analyst visiting On are both hers)
Hermès (Opening a permanent store in Williamsburg after a pop-up test, which she said is how a permanent lease gets justified)
Dior and LVMH (Dior's flagships opened over the past year are where she expects the North American strength to show; LVMH sold Marc Jacobs to G3)
Nike, On and Adidas (Nike's stock is down 40% this year on the host's figure; it is resetting through wholesale, new product and new advertising with an investor day in November. On signed Kylian Mbappé and Thierry Henry, and its investor day is next week. Adidas has one too)
Dick's Sporting Goods (The wholesale partner Nike named as part of the reset)
Ulta (47 million loyalty members, her example of customer-count acceleration)
Victoria's Secret and Estée Lauder (Her two examples of accelerating sales trends)
Reformation (Accelerating the rate of new store openings)
Macy's and Bloomingdale's (Macy's reset its store count and reopened reimagined stores; she told the hosts to look at Bloomingdale's new brands)
Gap (One of the tired legacy names she says has reinvented itself)
Home Depot, Lowe's and Williams-Sonoma (All waiting on a housing pickup; Home Depot's returns since COVID were the question put to her)
HomeGoods (Comping well on lower-priced soft home goods as people refresh their houses)
Five Below (Where the squishy dumplings are)
Tiffany (Its Blue Box Cafe restaurants, and a link necklace that is permanently out of stock)
Louis Vuitton, Van Cleef & Arpels and Bulgari (The rest of the corners at 57th and Fifth; the Louis Vuitton trunks are what she called the most Instagrammable place in Manhattan)
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