Nominal GDP ran about 6% in the late 1990s, and Ryan Detrick says that is roughly where it is running now, with the last quarter at 8%.
The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5% on the day of this segment for the first time since 2023, and most of the conversation about that level is about what it breaks. Detrick was asked about the opposite case, and his answer is that high nominal growth and sticky inflation are the same story as a bull market rather than a threat to one.
"But at Carson we've said all year this is an inflationary growth environment meaning yields are going to go higher."
Detrick sets market strategy for Carson Group and has carried that call publicly since the start of the year, which is why he was asked to defend it at a 5% 10-year rather than after one.
The full segment is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 3 calls that matter.
👤 Guest: Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group and a CNBC contributor
🎙️ Host: Leslie Picker, who covers capital markets for CNBC and was anchoring Closing Bell
📰 Published: 14 September 2026 on CNBC's Closing Bell
🟣 Apple Podcasts | 🔗 Episode page | ⏱️ 3 min
Key Takeaways
Nominal GDP is running near its late-1990s rate, which is the whole basis for expecting yields to keep rising
The last quarter printed 8%, against an average just under 6% in the closing years of the 1990s
The house forecast is sticky inflation of roughly 3–3.5% with the economy growing through it
High-yield credit is showing no stress, and the tell he watches is high yield against intermediate-term bonds
Utilities and staples closed at their lowest level ever relative to the S&P 500, and he reads that as bullish
The defensive sectors are not getting a bid even in a choppy market
A 10-year at 6% would not be the end of the world, on his reading of household balance sheets
He says they are in their best shape in a couple of decades: plenty of debt, but plenty of equity against it
1. Nominal GDP Like the 1990s
Leslie Picker opened the segment on the 10-year yield topping 5% for the first time since 2023 and put the framing to Detrick directly: "I think a lot of people see yields at that level and they wonder what can go wrong. You are focused on what can go right," she said, and asked whether that meant repositioning a portfolio for yields to stay here.
Detrick's answer starts with a growth comparison rather than a rates one. "In the late 90s, we had nominal GDP running about 6%. That's ballpark where we are right now. Last quarter was 8% nominal GDP," he said
On the benchmark itself: "But we averaged like, oh, just a hair under 6% those final four years of the 90s."
The call that follows from it is the firm's, and it has been in place all year: "But at Carson we've said all year this is an inflationary growth environment meaning yields are going to go higher. It's going to be sticky inflation, maybe three to 3.5% inflation."
The growth half of that is the part he wanted emphasized: "But you know what? The economy is going to do pretty darn good. And this bull market is alive and well."
The positioning is overweight stocks and underweight bonds, with yields, in his phrase, working their way higher from here
2. No Monster Under the Bed
Picker's second question was whether the absence of credit stress can continue. Detrick said his desk watches it daily and that the signal is clean.
"We know high yield spreads are showing virtually no stress," he said
The specific test he uses is a relative one: "I mean when high yield is outperforming kind of intermediate term bonds on a relative basis. The way I learned it, that means there's no monster under the bed."
He set that against the two moments this cycle when the signal did fire: "early this year and early 2025, before all the trouble started, we saw stress in high yield credit markets. We're not seeing that yet."
The second piece of evidence is what is being sold rather than what is being bought — "we had utilities and staples both closed at their lowest levels ever relative to the S&P 500" on a weekly, relative basis the week before the segment
"Those are defensive areas. They're not getting a bid."
He acknowledged the tape does not feel like that: "I get the markets choppy. I get all the headlines. We understand all that. But that's probably a sign this market wants to continue to work its way higher, not lower."
3. If the 10-Year Reaches 6%
Picker pushed on the level itself: "At what level are you concerned that it does start to become more of a pressure point for the consumer, for their credit card bills, for buying a house? I mean, is 5% that level or does it just depend on how long it stays there?"
Detrick took the duration half of the question: "Yeah, it kind of depends on how long it stays there."
He then went further than the level he was asked about: "I mean, we might go up to 6%, you know, over the next year or so. We don't think that's like the end of the world."
The reason he gives is the household balance sheet, not the interest bill: "Balance sheets are in some of the best shape they've been in a couple of decades. I mean, yes, there's a lot of debt, but there's also a lot of equity."
He did not claim the picture is uniform. "And we can go down, you know, the K-shaped economy path. We understand the issues that are there," he said, and described the consumer data as having fits and starts when you peel it back
On the labor market, his position is that the recent data supports a rate of hiring low enough to sound underwhelming and high enough to work: "I know it doesn't sound like a lot, but that is more than enough in our economy now to keep things going and bring back that consumer confidence, which is still really low every time you turn around."
Bonus Insights
The show closed with its own data point rather than the guest's. Picker read out that "You've got the Citi CFO, Gonzalo Luchetti, speaking at the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference right now. And he says consumers continue to spend. Consumers continue to pay their bills." She added the figure the bank gave, saying they are seeing "about 6% year on year spending momentum."
Detrick hedged his own historical analogy before anyone else could. "Now I get it. All times are different," he said, immediately after making the late-1990s comparison the segment was built on.
The consumer-confidence point is the one place he conceded the data disagrees with the market: he described confidence as still really low every time you turn around, while arguing the hiring rate behind it is adequate.
Detrick's bottom line is that a 10-year yield above 5% is a symptom of nominal growth running at late-1990s rates rather than a threat to it, and that until high-yield spreads or the defensive sectors say otherwise he would rather own stocks than bonds.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
Carson Group (Detrick's firm, which he says has called this an inflationary growth environment all year and is positioned overweight stocks and underweight bonds)
Citigroup (The host read out its CFO, Gonzalo Luchetti, telling the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference that consumers keep spending and paying their bills, with about 6% year-on-year spending momentum)
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