Fox Business Clips Sep 18, 2026
With Kenny Polcari, Chief Market Strategist at SlateStone Wealth
Kenny Polcari put his year-end target for the S&P 500 at 7800, about where the index was trading when he said it.
The setup going into the segment was that stocks should have sold off: interest rates are rising and so are gas and diesel prices. Polcari's answer is that the market is not ignoring either one, and that it has already stopped going up.
"So I would expect that the market is going to struggle."
Polcari joined SlateStone Wealth as Chief Market Strategist in October 2019 and is a partner in the firm. He is a regular market commentator on Fox Business, CNBC and CNN, and he was asked on air for the year-end number rather than a theme.
The full segment is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 3 calls that matter.
Key Takeaways
His year-end S&P 500 target is 7800, roughly where the index already trades
He expects a pullback and volatility into the midterms, then a flat finish
Other strategists still carry 8,000 or 8200, and some have cut their numbers a little
Rising rates and rising fuel prices have not broken the market because the labor market and earnings are still strong
1. Struggling, Not Selling Off
The question put to Polcari was how stocks can hold up with interest rates rising and gas and diesel prices rising alongside them, when most people would have expected a selloff. He did not argue that the market has shrugged it off.
He expects the market to struggle, and says it already is
So I would expect that the market is going to struggle. I think it is kind of struggling here, we've seen this back and forth.
Kenny Polcari
That is a narrower claim than a top. The tape he described is one that trades sideways under the weight of higher rates and higher fuel costs rather than one that breaks.
2. The Data Is Still Strong
Polcari's reason for not being more negative is the incoming economic data, and he went through it in one breath.
The economy and the labor market are still healthy
Let's be honest, the economy remains strong. The data points continue to point to a very healthy economy, the labor market remains strong. Unemployment is at its lowest level.
Kenny Polcari
And profits are expected to repeat in October
Companies are reporting blowout wonderful earnings and are expected to do it again in October.
Kenny Polcari
The show's own framing followed from that: record profits, helped along by artificial intelligence, are what the market is hoping for in spite of the rate and fuel problems.
3. A 7800 Target for Year-End
Asked directly where the index finishes the year, Polcari gave a number and a path to it.
He expects a pullback first
So, I think we're going to pull back. I think we're going to have some volatility going into the midterms.
Kenny Polcari
And a year-end level roughly where the market is now
I think at the end of the year we are going to end about where we are, 7800 is my target on the year end S&P number.
Kenny Polcari
Which is below where much of Wall Street still sits
I know there are other guys that still have 8,000 or 8200, some adjusted downward a little bit
Kenny Polcari
Bonus Insights
The midterms are the volatility event he named, not the Federal Reserve or the oil price. Asked for a year-end number, Polcari reached for the election calendar as the reason the path there is bumpy, and left rates and fuel as the background conditions rather than the trigger.
Polcari's bottom line is that a strong labor market and strong earnings are holding stocks up against rising rates and rising fuel prices, and that the result is a pullback, volatility into the midterms and an S&P 500 that ends the year near 7800 rather than the 8,000-plus much of Wall Street is still carrying.
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