Stephen Moore, chairman and co-founder of Unleash Prosperity and a former senior economic adviser to President Trump, tells Bloomberg This Weekend that inflation is still too high to cut and that the live argument at the Federal Reserve is whether to raise. He works through the gap between an economy he calls good and voters who are angry about prices, the trade fight with Canada, and the one indicator he says decides the midterms. This summary also carries the news quiz that closes the programme, which the hosts play among themselves; the episode's three other guest segments are summarized separately.
👤 Guest: Stephen Moore, chairman and co-founder of Unleash Prosperity
🎙️ Hosts: Bailey Lipschultz and Christina Ruffini, Bloomberg This Weekend
👥 Also on: Lisa Mateo, Bloomberg This Weekend
📰 Published: 30 August 2026
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Key Takeaways
With inflation near 3.5%, the question is not whether the Fed cuts but whether it raises
"So the answer to your question is now is not the right time to be cutting rates at all."
He does not expect a hike at the next meeting, and says Fed members disagree about whether one is needed
He would leave rates alone if the decision were his
"If I were on the Fed, I would probably hold pat in terms of where they are right now."
The job market's constraint is workers, not vacancies
"the problem with the job market right now is not enough jobs, it's not enough workers" — with what he called record low layoffs
Good economic data and angry voters are the Republicans' midterm problem
"people are just still angry about the hangover effect of that high inflation we saw over the last five years"
Take-home pay has been rising for a year and a half and has just started going the other way
"So in other words, in the last couple of months, inflation has been higher than wage increases."
A Reagan free-trader's verdict on the Canada fight: right target, wrong country
"everyone knows that the bad actor here is China, not Canada"
The oil price is the indicator he says everybody should be watching into Election Day
"If the oil price stays at $80 a barrel, I think it's about that right now, then we have problems."
"The question for Republicans is, will it fall before Election Day?"
Venezuela is a one-to-two-year story, not a pre-election one
Faster relief, he said, would come from suspending refining rules and reopening the Strait of Hormuz
Lego told the show it will not let AI design its products, and the hosts turned that into the week's quiz
The Fed Setup: A September Hike Back on the Table After Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech
The programme opened with its own headline read before Moore was introduced. Economists were predicting a 55,000 increase in payrolls on Friday, following an unexpected drop in July, and the show framed a strong report as support for what many were already predicting after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech: an interest rate hike in September.
Lipschultz put the political version of that to Moore. The president has called for a rate cut, wanted a rate cut and wanted a Fed chair who wanted a rate cut, and none of it is going that way — could Warsh and others convince him otherwise?
Now Is Not the Time to Cut, and the Real Question Is Whether Rates Go Up
Moore's answer started with the data rather than the politics. Inflation news over the previous few weeks had it running at about 3.5%, against a Fed target he put at 2% or less, and after a five-year run-up he said most people would like to see it come down to zero.
"So the answer to your question is now is not the right time to be cutting rates at all. The real issue is whether rates should be increased."
He does not expect the Fed to move at the next meeting, but said there has been disagreement among Fed members about whether an increase is necessary now
What he would do himself: "If I were on the Fed, I would probably hold pat in terms of where they are right now."
Inflation is still too high, and he pointed at consumer sentiment numbers showing people are angry about high prices
The Economy Is Good, Voters Are Angry, and That Is the Republicans' Midterm Problem
Lipschultz raised the war in Iran hitting its six-month mark, inflation's effect on expectations and polling moving toward Democrats, and asked whether Moore is worried about midterms just over two months away.
He called the economy a conundrum. Low consumer confidence is a bad number for Republicans going into the midterms, he said, and there is no question about it. Judged objectively, though, he would not say the economy is great but would say it is good — the best in the world, with a stock market no other country has matched, and increases in investment, manufacturing and construction.
The job market's constraint is on the supply side: "the problem with the job market right now is not enough jobs, it's not enough workers"He said there are record low layoffs right now
"But people are just still angry about the hangover effect of that high inflation we saw over the last five years. And yet that's a big problem for Republicans going into the midterms."
Trump Watches the Stock Market More Closely Than the Polls
Ruffini, who has covered the president, put a distinction to Moore: polling used to sway him and seems to matter less now, but the stock market still does. As long as those numbers hold, she asked, is he likely to move on monetary policy at all — even with voters saying the numbers do not match their lives?
She gave the voter's version of it: "This economy does not feel accessible to me, and I'm going to vote that way."
Moore agreed. The objective measures are good, he said, and people are angry, and he knows firsthand that they are angry about prices
He pointed to great companies continuing to report great profits, and to most other countries being pretty flatlined
The statistic he said gets missed, from Unleash Prosperity's own monthly numbers: "And for the last 18 months, real median household income after taxes is up about $2,000 after inflation."The trend has turned. "So in other words, in the last couple of months, inflation has been higher than wage increases. That's not a trend we want to see continue."
A Reagan Free-Trader on Canada: The Bad Actor Is China
Lipschultz took him to the trade fight with Canada, the tit-for-tat tariffs and what he described as an intense internet meme war running alongside it, on the grounds that the United States and Canada are two of each other's most important allies and keep pushing further apart.
Moore separated the grievance from the tactic. "Well, you guys know that I'm a pretty much of a Ronald Reagan free trade guy. So I'm not a big fan of tariffs." He allowed that Trump has legitimate objections to some Canadian tariffs that hit American farmers, and read the pressure as an attempt to use leverage to get those tariffs down for farmers and manufacturers.
The timing is his objection, and so is the target: "But look, I don't think this is a great time to be picking a trade war with Canada because I think if— everyone knows that the bad actor here is China, not Canada."
He said he hopes it gets resolved very quickly
The Oil Price Is the One Indicator He Says Decides the Election
Ruffini asked what he would actually say to the president to talk him out of it, given prices and the calendar, and noted that plenty of people have tried and that this president likes tariffs.
Moore's answer moved straight to oil. The thing that has really hurt the economy for the last three or four months, he said, is the high oil price.
"I mean, when I get up in the morning, the first thing I look at is what's happening with the oil price."
"If the oil price stays at $80 a barrel, I think it's about that right now, then we have problems. If they can get it down to $70 to $65 a barrel, that makes all the difference in the world."
"So that is the key indicator everybody should be looking at right now. Is the oil price rising or falling?" A fall, he said, means a booming economy
"The question for Republicans is, will it fall before Election Day?"
Venezuela Will Not Move the Oil Price Before Election Day
Lipschultz raised the weekend's headlines about a US partnership with Venezuela aimed at driving the oil price down over the long term, and made the practical objection himself: people who understand the industry say this is not a switch you flip and have Venezuelan crude shipping to the United States.
Moore agreed with the premise and kept the timeline.
No effect on the oil price in the very short term, and probably no big impact before the elections
Over the next year or two it could have a very positive impact. "I mean, Venezuela could be an oil powerhouse again."
What could be done at home before Election Day: suspending some of the refining rules that require ethanol. "We think you could probably reduce the price of gas by about 30 cents a gallon just by getting rid of some of the regulations."
"But the most important thing, obviously, is get the Strait of Hormuz open. When that happens, we're going to have a much better economy."
Lego, Dolly Parton and a Cabbage: The Show's Closing News Quiz
The programme closes with its weekly news quiz, played by the hosts. Mateo ran it, Lipschultz played for the first time — he had ducked it before, he said, because he did not need to prove to a live television or radio audience how high his IQ is — and Ruffini played alongside him.
The format is three categories and thirty chips in three rows of ten, wagered in multiples of ten. Ruffini described her own approach as hedging with ten on each, which the show calls the Ruffini; Lipschultz did the same after asking whether he could go all in on the first question.
Toys. Which Denmark-based toy maker reported record first-half sales and said it will not let AI design its products? Both wrote Lego. "Yes, they said they're sticking with human designers." — Lisa Mateo, who added that the company will use AI for work like its instruction manualsRuffini on why that matters: "I think that's really important because people have such an emotional attachment to Legos." A set built badly because the AI has not built one, she said, breaks the process people enjoy"And did you know Lego actually comes from the Danish phrase that means play well." — Lisa Mateo
Dolly Parton. What was her first number one on the Billboard Hot 100? Lipschultz wrote Jolene; the answer was 9 to 5Mateo said the song was written for a motion picture and won an Academy Award nomination, and that Jolene came later and was not as commercially popularShe recommended the film, which she said is streaming on Hulu
Vegetables. South Korea is tightening inspections on which vegetable after sellers used formaldehyde for freshness? Lipschultz wrote bok choy; the answer was cabbage, and the reason is kimchiRuffini noted the show has talked about kimchi a lot, including how it helps with microplastics
The bonus question. Mystery packs of Disney Ooshies are boosting sales at Australia's Woolworths — what kind of store is it? Lipschultz answered a bar; Ruffini switched from department store to grocery and was rightMateo explained the split: Woolworths in the United States is a department store, the name was never licensed in Australia, and the Australian company took it and became a grocerThe Ooshies themselves are small character figures given out as mystery prizes, which she said became a huge thing
Ruffini donated her chips to Lipschultz at the end so he could claim at least a tie, then pointed out he still finished behind her
Moore's bottom line is that the case for cutting rates does not exist while inflation runs near 3.5%, that the economy is objectively good and politically useless while voters remember the price level, and that the single number to watch into the midterms is the oil price.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
Unleash Prosperity (Moore's organization, which he said publishes monthly advance numbers on real median household income after taxes)
The Federal Reserve (Target of the whole segment: he said now is not the time to cut, that the live question is a hike, and that members disagree about whether one is needed)
Lego (The quiz answer: record first-half sales, and a decision to keep human designers rather than let AI design products, using AI for instruction manuals instead)
Woolworths, Australia (Disney Ooshies mystery packs are boosting its sales; a grocer, unrelated to the American department store, because the name was never licensed there)
Books & Resources Mentioned
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