Standard Chartered has raised its 12-month forecast for the S&P 500 to 8,400, a number Steve Brice described as 20 times forward earnings on an earnings-per-share estimate of 420, and 9% above where the index was trading.
Almost everything else being said about US equities runs the other way. Brice used the episode to take the two arguments the bears are making — that the spending boom on artificial intelligence cannot last, and that technology profits are being flattered by paper gains on shareholdings — and to say why neither one moved the bank's number.
"The doom and gloom has remained in full swing when it comes to the outlook for equity markets, especially in the US."
Brice is Standard Chartered's global chief investment officer, and the target he is defending is the bank's own published house view, upgraded in the Global Market Outlook it released the Friday before this episode.
I listened to the full episode so you can skip it.
Here are the 5 takeaways that matter.
👤 Speaker: Steve Brice, global chief investment officer at Standard Chartered Bank, who sets the house market view the bank publishes to its wealth clients
📰 Published: 31 August 2026 on YouTube (Standard Chartered Wealth Insights) · dated 1 September 2026 on air
🔴 YouTube | 🟢 Spotify | 🟣 Apple Podcasts | ⏱️ 5 min
Key Takeaways
Standard Chartered has raised its 12-month S&P 500 target to 8,400, which is 9% above where the index trades The number is 20 times forward earnings on an earnings-per-share estimate of 420
The bank now expects $1T of AI capital spending next year, after raising the figure repeatedly through 2026 Nvidia's latest guidance is the evidence Brice leans on, and he reads it as covering well into 2027
Technology profits are being lifted by revaluations of stakes in other companies rather than by operations Anthropic and OpenAI are both expected to list within months, which would extend the effect
The earnings estimate behind the target excludes those gains altogether
Brice is not promising a quiet run into December, and the reason he gives is the US midterm election year His instruction is to stay invested and use dips to add
1. The 8,400 S&P 500 Target
Brice opened on the mood rather than on the market, and he did not pretend the bank's view is the consensus one.
Standard Chartered had already staged the argument in public, bringing in an outsider to make the bear case against its own equity strategist. "Indeed, we recently had a bull versus bear webinar where we invited somebody to present the bear case." Brice said the bank's equity chief investment officer, Sundeep Gantori, gave the reply
The upgrade itself came in the Global Market Outlook published the Friday before, and Brice said earnings are the reason for it. He described the new forecast as based on "the continued strong outlook for earnings"
The target is a multiple and an earnings number, and Brice gave both. "Our 8,400 target is effectively a 20-times forward price earnings multiple on earnings per share of 420." "This offers up 9% upside from current levels."
The bear case, as he set it out, is two objections rather than a general gloom. One is whether the spending cycle on artificial intelligence can be sustained; the other is the growing other-income line in company results, which he said matters most in the technology sector
2. AI Capex Hits $1T Next Year
The bank has revised its spending forecast upward all year because the commitments companies keep announcing beat its own bullish assumptions. "We have been continually raising our AI capex guidance through the year as data and commitments continually exceed our bullish estimates."
Brice granted the bear premise and disputed only the timing. "Of course, what cannot go on forever must end at some point, but there are no signs of this happening imminently."
The single piece of evidence he leaned on is Nvidia's own outlook for its business. "The best synopsis of this is the recent forward guidance from Nvidia, which suggests that the resilience of AI capex plans is likely to extend well into 2027." He added that the bank sees growing evidence the investment is being turned into revenue, which is the second half of his argument
That produces the number the bank is working to. "And this leads us to expect AI capex of $1 trillion next year."
3. The $160B Other-Income Line
The second objection took the longest stretch of the episode, because Brice stopped to explain what the line in the accounts actually is before saying whether it matters.
Other income is where paper gains on shareholdings in other companies land, rather than anything the business itself earned. "Well, the other income component includes mark-to-market gains on shareholdings in other companies." "Normally, this is a relatively small line item, but it has grown in recent times due to tech companies cross shareholdings in AI companies."
A stake gets revalued in one of two ways, and Brice walked through both. The first is a private company raising new money at a different implied valuation from its last round; the second is a stake in a listed company moving with the market
SpaceX's listing this year is his example of the first route, because the initial public offering was priced above what private investors had paid in earlier funding rounds
The size of the effect is the Financial Times's number, not Standard Chartered's. Brice cited FT reporting that the technology sector booked $160 billion of gains on stakes in other companies in the second quarter
He expects the run of gains to continue for at least a few more months. "Now again, this cannot go on forever, of course, but it is likely to continue in the very near term with both Anthropic and OpenAI expected to list at some point in the coming months."
4. The 420 EPS Excludes It
Brice's answer to the objection is that the earnings estimate behind his target never counted the gains in the first place. "Remember that 2027 EPS forecast I mentioned of 420?" His answer: "Well, that excludes other income."
On that basis the comparison still shows growth, because the second-quarter earnings it is measured against do include the other-income component
He left one exit open and did not size it. He said it is possible the gains could reverse, without putting a number or a probability on how far
His view is that investors would look past a reversal if the wider picture held. "But we think the markets would probably be able to look through this, especially obviously if the economy is continuing to do well and the AI cycle is alive and kicking."
5. A Bumpy Fall, Stay Invested
The upgrade is not a forecast of a quiet run into December, and Brice said so directly. He warned that it will not be plain sailing into the end of the year
The reason he gave is seasonal and political. "We are heading into a seasonal period that can sometimes be bumpy for markets, especially in a US midterm election year."
He does not think the wobble can be traded. "However, timing this is always difficult."
What follows from that is to stay in the market and buy weakness. "Therefore, we suggest investors remain invested and look for dips to add to allocations where appropriate."
Bonus Insights
Brice concedes both bear arguments in principle and argues only about when they bite. He attached the same caveat to each: the spending cycle "cannot go on forever," and neither does he expect the run of investment gains to
He never gave a level for the S&P 500 as it stands, only the 9% gap between it and the 8,400 target, which is the one number a listener would have to work out for themselves
The show is a short daily briefing from Standard Chartered's chief investment office, and Brice signed off saying he would be back the following day
Brice's bottom line is that both objections to owning US equities are real and neither is imminent, which is why Standard Chartered raised its S&P 500 target rather than trimming it.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
S&P 500 (The index Standard Chartered's upgraded 12-month target of 8,400 applies to, which Brice says leaves 9% of upside from where it trades)
Nvidia (Its recent forward guidance is the evidence Brice cites that spending on artificial intelligence holds up well into 2027)
SpaceX (Its listing this year is his example of a private company coming to market above its last private valuation, which marks up the stakes other companies hold in it)
Anthropic and OpenAI (Both expected to list in the coming months, which is why Brice thinks the investment-gains line keeps growing in the near term)
Books & Resources Mentioned
Global Market Outlook: It's all about the yield – Standard Chartered (The report published the Friday before this episode, carrying the upgraded 8,400 target Brice describes)
Big Tech profits get $160bn boost from gains on stakes in other AI companies – Financial Times (The reporting Brice cites for the size of the second-quarter gains on stakes in other companies)
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