Intro
Standard Chartered global chief investment officer Steve Brice takes on whether investors should try to predict when markets rise and fall or simply stay invested, running through why short-term prediction defeats professionals, what two long-run studies found, and what to do when prices are falling.
Guest: Steve Brice, global chief investment officer, Standard Chartered Bank
Published: 28 August 2026 on Standard Chartered Money Insights
Episode page | 4 min
Key Takeaways
Markets are not predictable the way a drive to the airport is
Thousands of factors move them every day, and many change constantly and without warning
"But financial markets are very different."
Three competing theories of how markets work all land on the same conclusion
Accurately timing the market is extremely difficult
Missing only the best days is what timing actually costs, and nobody knows when they fall
Some of the strongest rebounds come shortly after the sharpest declines
Steady investing beat waiting for a cheap entry point
"But over more than two decades, the steady investor actually came out ahead."
Why Getting to the Airport Is Predictable and Markets Are Not
Brice opens on the question he says is one of the most common investors ask themselves: should they try to predict when markets will rise and fall, or is it better to stay invested over time
He answers with an airport analogy: most of us rarely miss a flight, because traffic, distance and travel time are reasonably predictable and a reasonable buffer usually covers the rest
"But financial markets are very different."
Markets are influenced by thousands of factors every single day, and he names five: economic data, corporate earnings, government policies, technological developments and investor sentiment
Many of those factors change constantly and without warning, which he says makes predicting short-term market movements incredibly difficult — even for experienced professionals
Three Theories of How Markets Work, All Ending in the Same Place
The first view he sets out is that markets quickly absorb new information, making it very hard to consistently predict what happens next
The second recognizes that markets are driven by people, and that people are not always rational — fear, excitement and overconfidence can all influence investment decisions and therefore market prices
A third perspective combines those ideas, treating markets as constantly adapting as investors learn and react to changing conditions
The theories differ, but Brice says they point to one important conclusion: accurately timing the market is extremely difficult
What Missing the Best Days Costs
Brice reaches for a study of the US stock market covering many decades: "investors who missed just a handful of the market's best days saw dramatically lower returns"
The challenge he identifies is not that those days matter but that nobody knows when they will occur
"And indeed some of the strongest market rebounds happen shortly after significant market declines."
That is his explanation for why investors who sell during periods of fear often risk missing the recovery that follows
The Steady Investor Beat the One Waiting for a Cheap Market
He describes a second long-term study comparing two approaches: one investor steadily invests his money in the market over time, while the other keeps some cash on the sidelines waiting for the market to appear cheap
Brice acknowledges the intuition runs the other way — you might expect the patient investor waiting for markets to be cheap to have achieved better results
"But over more than two decades, the steady investor actually came out ahead."
The reason he gives is simple: while waiting for the perfect opportunity, the patient investor missed periods when the market continued to rise
Markets Do Fall, and the Answer Is a Plan Rather Than a Forecast of the Bottom
He is explicit that the lesson is not that markets never fall — of course they do
The lesson he draws instead is that trying to predict every peak and trough is usually less effective than maintaining a long-term investment plan and following it with discipline
Downturns can work in an investor's favor: rather than trying to identify the exact bottom, he says investors may benefit from accelerating investments during periods of weakness
Buying into weakness that way can help lower the average purchase price and position the portfolio for a future recovery
"investment decisions should be guided by careful planning and strong fundamentals, not by emotions such as fear or excitement"
The message he asks listeners to leave with: "Market timing may make you lucky once, but time in the market is far more likely to help you build wealth over the long term."
Brice's bottom line is that staying invested wins not because markets always rise but because the days that generate the returns cannot be identified in advance, which makes a disciplined plan that buys more into weakness a better bet than waiting for an entry point that only looks obvious afterward.
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