CNBC Sep 21, 2026
With Anastasia Amoroso, Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist for Private Wealth and Retirement at Partners Group · Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group · Katie Stockton, Founder and Managing Partner of Fairlead Strategies
The S&P 500's multiple has come down from 23 times earnings to 19 times, and Anastasia Amoroso's argument is that this is where the value in the index came from rather than from anything getting cheaper.
September is the month investors are told to brace for, and the question Dominic Chu put to a three-person panel was whether to lean into a rally running into the last stretch of it. None of the three wanted to fade it, and each gave a different reason.
"There's always something to fear, but I think the last couple of weeks really shows that we've managed to work through some of those fears."
Amoroso runs investment strategy for Partners Group's private wealth and retirement business; Ryan Detrick is Carson Group's chief market strategist and Katie Stockton founded the technical research firm Fairlead Strategies, and both are CNBC contributors.
The full segment is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 7 calls that matter.
Key Takeaways
Three separate fears cleared in a fortnight — oil coming off its local highs, the AI safety scare, and a Fed and a Bank of Japan that both hiked without breaking the economy
The multiple reset from 23 times to 19 times, which Amoroso reads as risk getting priced in rather than growth getting worse
On 2027 S&P 500 earnings of $407 she gets to close to 8000 on the index
The Mag-7 taking the leadership back is a bullish sign, not a narrowing one, on Detrick's reading of how rotation works in a bull market
The S&P 500 has not moved more than 1% up or down for 4 straight weeks, and Detrick's rule for that is don't short a dull market
Detrick's firm called this September in advance: a troublesome first half, then a surprise rally once the Fed was out of the way
The consolidation interrupted the uptrend without reversing it, because the market was already short-term oversold when the rally began
Semiconductors, not just the megacaps, have to lead for the longer-term momentum to hold — and Stockton says that momentum is weaker than a year ago
1. Fears Worked Through
Dominic Chu opened the panel by asking whether investors should lean into a rally arriving in what is historically a weaker month, and whether there is anything left to fear. Amoroso took the question first and answered it by listing what the market has already absorbed.
The last two weeks cleared a set of specific worries
There's always something to fear, but I think the last couple of weeks really shows that we've managed to work through some of those fears.
Anastasia Amoroso
She named three. The first was oil, which had risen far enough to keep investors on the sidelines.
Oil eased off its local highs
First we had the oil prices that were rising and that had investors on the sidelines, but we seemingly have eased off some of those local highs.
Anastasia Amoroso
The second was whether AI momentum would stall because of safety concerns, which she said news about Meta had settled — the artificial intelligence show, in her phrase, is very much still going on. The third was rates, and here two central banks had already tested the thesis.
Two central banks hiked and the economy held
And we did have the Fed that hiked. We had the Bank of Japan that hiked. And we're still doing fine because the economy is actually quite resilient against those higher rates.
Anastasia Amoroso
Her conclusion was that the market has cleared enough of this to keep moving higher into year end.
2. The Multiple Reset
The second half of Amoroso's case is arithmetic rather than sentiment. The index is not cheaper because expectations fell; it is cheaper because the price came down against the same earnings.
23 times became 19 times, and that is where the value is
But also if you look at the multiple, multiple has reset lower from 23 times to 19 times. So I actually think value has emerged.
Anastasia Amoroso
Earnings momentum, she said, has continued through it. Put the two together and she gets a number for the index.
$407 of 2027 earnings gets her close to 8000
So if we do bake in the full 2027 earnings growth of $407 on S&P 500 earnings, that gets us to probably close to 8000 on the S&P.
Anastasia Amoroso
3. Mag-7 Takes The Baton
Chu turned to Detrick with a harder version of the question. The Middle East conflict is still running, it is pushing prices at the pump up and arguably pushing interest rates up with them, and yet the Mag-7 stocks had hit an intraday record high as a portfolio earlier that day. His question was whether that is something to be positive about, or a sign that leadership is narrowing again after six to nine months of talk about the market broadening out.
Detrick took the positive read, and his reason is that rotation is what a bull market does.
The megacaps taking the lead back is a good sign
Now Mag-7 is taking back that baton. That's I think a good sign.
Ryan Detrick
4. Don't Short A Dull Market
His second argument is about what the market did after the Fed meeting he places six weeks ago: a big rally, and then nothing at all.
Four weeks without a 1% move in either direction
We just went sideways four weeks in a row, the S&P 500 has not gained or lost more than 1%.
Ryan Detrick
He called that pretty rare, and put the last 1% decline at 37 days ago. The old saying he reached for was don't short a dull market — a flat tape after a rally is not the same thing as a top.
5. A More Dovish Fed
Detrick's third point is about the policy read, and here he described the Fed's most recent appearance as landing softer than the market had positioned for.
The Fed came off more dovish than most people expected
And I would argue the Fed came off last week much more dovish than most people expected.
Ryan Detrick
He offered Bitcoin breaking out as corroboration — a sign, in his reading, that the market agrees the Fed is more dovish and likes it. He then pointed to his own firm's published call on the month.
Carson Group told clients to expect a surprise rally once the Fed was past
We said the first half of September could be kind of troublesome. Get past the Fed and then expect to see a surprise rally.
Ryan Detrick
The seasonal reputation, he argued, is not what the recent record says.
September has gained more than 2% in each of the last two years
Everyone talks about how bad September is. It gained more than 2% the last two years.
Ryan Detrick
His call for the rest of the month
I think the second half of this September is going to be better than most people expect.
Ryan Detrick
6. Interrupted, Not Reversed
Chu brought Stockton in with the seasonal point plus two more: this is a midterm election cycle year, and there is a question about whether the AI trade can sustain itself without macro help. He asked whether the megacap technology trade is one where an investor can rely on lower valuations and follow the price action, and what that price action is saying.
Stockton's answer was that the pause in the summer was a consolidation, and that the distinction matters.
The uptrend was interrupted rather than reversed
So what we heard from Ryan is that there was a consolidation phase that interrupted the uptrend, but it seems to have just interrupted it rather than reversed anything because we saw a short term oversold conditions ahead of this rally.
Katie Stockton
The response to that oversold condition is what she reads as the signal.
The uptrend is still the dominant trend
It suggests that the uptrend is still dominant.
Katie Stockton
7. Semis Have To Lead
Her second point is about which part of the market has to carry it. The rotation into the megacaps matters especially when breadth has been poor, she said, but the semiconductor sector catching a bid alongside the wider AI trade is what keeps the uptrend alive.
Leadership has to come from semiconductors
I think that the leadership almost has to come from that segment of the market in order to sustain the longer term positive momentum that is still there.
Katie Stockton
She was careful not to overstate how strong that momentum is.
Weaker than a year ago, but still holding the gains
It's not the same level of momentum that the market had a year ago, but even still, it is sustaining those gains.
Katie Stockton
On the day itself she pointed to gaps higher in semiconductor names and breakouts in some of the megacaps, and read both as risk-on.
Bonus Insights
The anchor's framing did most of the work
Chu set up each leg of the discussion rather than asking an open question: the seasonal weakness of September against a rally, the Middle East conflict feeding pump prices and rates, the Mag-7 intraday record as a test of narrowing against broadening, and the midterm election cycle layered on top of the usual seasonality. He also made the point that a weak September historically leads into better trends for October, November and December once it settles out.
Two of the three are CNBC contributors
Chu introduced Detrick and Stockton as contributors to the network, and Amoroso as the outside voice from Partners Group.
The panel's shared bottom line is that this rally is worth leaning into — Amoroso because the index has already repriced and the earnings are still coming, Detrick because a market that refuses to fall on bad news is not one to short, and Stockton because the trend that paused over the summer never actually broke.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
Partners Group (Amoroso's firm; she runs investment strategy for its private wealth and retirement business)
Carson Group (Detrick's firm, which told clients to expect a troublesome first half of September followed by a surprise rally)
Fairlead Strategies (Stockton's technical research firm)
Meta (News about the company is what Amoroso says eased the worry that AI momentum would slump over safety concerns)
The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (Both hiked, and Amoroso's point is that the economy has stayed resilient anyway; Detrick reads the Fed's most recent appearance as more dovish than expected)
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