Squawk Box opened the week with the first confirmed US attack on Iran in several weeks, a weekend oil agreement between Washington and Venezuela, and OpenAI shutting Cursor out of its models after SpaceX bought the company. CNBC's Dan Murphy reported from Abu Dhabi on the strikes and on how much economic pressure Washington has left to apply.
🎙️ Hosts: Joe Kernen, Becky Quick and Andrew Ross Sorkin, who anchor CNBC's Squawk Box
👥 Also on: Dan Murphy, CNBC's Middle East correspondent, reporting from Abu Dhabi; Katie Kramer, the CNBC producer who assembles Squawk Pod
📰 Published: 31 August 2026 on YouTube (CNBC Television)
🔴 YouTube | 🟢 Spotify | 🟣 Apple Podcasts | ⏱️ 32 min
Key Takeaways
The US hit Iran for the first time in weeks, and oil moved on the strike rather than on the Venezuela deal
"WTI crude, by the way, up at $86 already this morning." — Andrew Ross Sorkin
Central Command said the target was mine-laying forces preparing to seed the Strait of Hormuz
Washington's plan is sanctions, not more missiles, and the strikes so far have not done the work
"The White House, of course, now banking on sanctions, basically doing the work that strikes so far have not." — Dan Murphy
The sanctions program is barely started — one Egyptian bank's Dubai branches so far
Murphy called the full package the Treasury Secretary's "economic D-Day" and said most of it has yet to hit
The UAE, for decades a conduit for Iranian money, is now putting up its own walls
Inflation skyrocketing, the currency spiraling, and no sign yet that it changes anything inside Tehran
Whether the pressure works turns on China, and nobody on set claimed to know how far either side will go
"We've heard from the Treasury Secretary, I think we all don't know ultimately how far the US is going to push China and how far China will or will not ultimately go." — Andrew Ross Sorkin
The Venezuela deal covers more than 65 billion barrels and runs 25 years, and the anchors doubted it survives contact with reality
Who pays to rebuild the country's oil infrastructure is unstated
"So I don't know how long it lasts, whether it's dependent on Delcy Rodriguez."
The oil market priced the Iran strike and ignored the Venezuela announcement
OpenAI cut Cursor off because SpaceX bought it, and the anchors think the prompts are the real asset
"So if you can capture the prompts effectively from a user on an OpenAI, for example, that's like giving away the store."
Doing the show with three anchors instead of two is a third of the work each rather than half
"Because it's only 33 percent."
Three Anchors Make It a Third Each, Not a Half
Becky Quick opened the program with the standing line — "We are live from the Nasdaq MarketSite in Times Square." — and the desk spent the first minute on the arithmetic of its own staffing. The point of a third anchor, one of them said, is that it is easier to do the show with three people than with two.
"Because it's only 33 percent."
"Yeah, you do 50 percent more work when one of us is out."
The consolation offered was that a third anchor can hand off an interview he does not want, which produced the observation that the guests being handed around do not know it is happening
Nobody on the set, one of them said, knows in advance who has which interview
The First Confirmed US Strike on Iran in Several Weeks
Andrew Ross Sorkin took the top of the news block. "In the meantime, the US and Iran firing at each other for the first time now in weeks." He gave the market read alongside it: "WTI crude, by the way, up at $86 already this morning."
Dan Murphy, reporting from Abu Dhabi, gave the sequence.
"US forces hitting two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island on Sunday." — just off the coast of Bandar Abbas in the Strait of Hormuz
The stated justification was mine-laying. "Central Command saying the Iranians were preparing to fire sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz." Central Command called its own response limited, precise action against IRGC mine-laying forces
The rhetoric escalated the same morning. "President Trump also escalating the rhetoric this morning, posting an AI-generated video on Truth Social and threatening once again to blow up Kharg Island, that is Iran's main oil export terminal."
Iran answered by firing at Jordan. "Jordan's military says it intercepted eight missiles." Iran also claimed to have targeted US sites in the UAE; the Emirates said it intercepted a drone and denied any strike on a US or Emirati air base
Senior Emirati voices, among them the UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash, called again for de-escalation and for normal shipping through Hormuz to resume
Murphy's read is that this was a one-off. "I think it's too soon to say if this is an isolated flare-up or the start of a new round of kinetic escalation, most likely an isolated flare-up based on everything we've been hearing from the White House over the last couple of weeks."
The strategy has moved to money. "The White House, of course, now banking on sanctions, basically doing the work that strikes so far have not."
How Much Economic Pressure Is Left, and Whether Any of It Is Working
Asked what the timeline looks like and what the genuine impact is, Murphy said the answer is still ahead of them rather than behind.
"Well on the ground, we're watching and waiting to see what the full extent of the Treasury Secretary's economic D-Day is going to look like."
What has actually landed so far is narrow. "So far, we've seen isolated action against branches of an Egyptian bank in Dubai", with the rest of the measures the Treasury Secretary laid out yet to hit
The point of preferring money to missiles is that there is a lot of room left. Murphy said there is more economic pressure available in the absence of going back to direct military action, which the White House would prefer to avoid
On the Iranian side, the same logic reduces the odds of escalation — the economic measures are taking effect and Tehran has less to gain from pushing further
Sorkin pressed on whether the measures are working, and put the China problem on the table himself: "We've heard from the Treasury Secretary, I think we all don't know ultimately how far the US is going to push China and how far China will or will not ultimately go."
Murphy agreed that allies, partners and adversaries all have to be onside for the economic lever to pull at all
The UAE is the example. "Of course, the UAE, for example, which has for many decades been kind of a conduit for financial transactions for Tehran, also putting up its own walls now" and trying to pull into line with the United States
The damage is real and the political effect is not. "Iran's economy really hurting. Of course, inflation skyrocketing, the currency continuing to spiral, average everyday Iranians also being hurt on the ground." Whether that produces a change inside Tehran, he said, remains to be seen
"But you also get the sense that on the whole, Andrew, this still has a lot further to run."
A 25-Year Deal on More Than 65 Billion Barrels, and an Oil Market That Ignored It
Sorkin read the Venezuela agreement out. "The US will take majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of oil reserves in the South American country." "President Trump calling it the biggest oil deal in world history."
The terms. "It follows the American capture of Venezuelan president, Nicolas Maduro, back in January, the country's interim president, saying that the oil agreement will last for 25 years and target an increase in crude output to 1.5 million barrels per day."
The financing is not addressed. "It's unclear who's going to pay for investments to revitalize Venezuela's crumbling oil infrastructure."
What the crude is for. "On Truth Social, President Trump said he would use some of the crude to help refill the SPR, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve here in the US."
The desk did not take the announcement at face value. The objections raised were whether the arrangement survives past this presidency, whether the Venezuelan constitution allows it at all, and whether the person now running the oil company the United States is taking a stake in is a suitable counterparty. The Wall Street Journal was cited on the desk as having a real problem with the deal, and one anchor put the durability question this way:
"So I don't know how long it lasts, whether it's dependent on Delcy Rodriguez."
The reserves themselves impressed the desk — by far the largest in the world, a point Sorkin repeated back
Sorkin gave the Journal's phrase for it: "The Journal referred to it as exporting the creepy brand of crony capitalism present in the United States right now."
The oil market's verdict was the closing point. The desk noted that oil was trading off the Iran strikes rather than the Venezuela announcement — the market has decided the deal is not happening, at least not yet
OpenAI Shuts Cursor Out, and the Prompts Are the Prize
The desk read the OpenAI decision straight. "OpenAI is saying that it will end developer access to its models on Cursor after Elon Musk's SpaceX acquired that business earlier this month."
OpenAI's stated reason was contractual rather than technical. "We are making this choice because we cannot be confident that SpaceX will use our technology within our terms of service based on our experience with Elon Musk's companies violating contracts."
Cursor's chief executive said on X that the company was in talks with OpenAI to resolve the situation
Musk's answer was two words and an insult. "In his own X post on Saturday, Musk wrote, I couldn't care less and called OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and President Greg Brockman utterly untrustworthy."
"Obviously, a lot of history between all three of the gentlemen and the lawsuit that they just went through."
The commercial logic the desk landed on is about data, not models. Capturing a user's prompts is very valuable, one anchor said, and it applies to any of these models rather than to Cursor specifically
"So if you can capture the prompts effectively from a user on an OpenAI, for example, that's like giving away the store."
Whether the Cursor side is in fact leveraging the prompts, he said, is the open question
SpaceX Launches NASA's Roman Space Telescope
The last item in the news block was a launch.
"SpaceX launching NASA's $4.3 billion Roman Space Telescope."
"It's named after the late Nancy Grace Roman, who was NASA's first chief astronomer."
"The telescope is expected to help shed light on dark matter and dark energy, which make up most of the universe, but are very little understood."
The division of labor between the two instruments: the Roman telescope will search for planets, which the more powerful James Webb Telescope will then examine more closely
The market's own verdict was the sharpest thing in the block: with the first US strike on Iran in weeks putting WTI at $86, oil traded on the missiles and not on a 25-year American claim over the largest crude reserves in the world.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
OpenAI and Cursor (OpenAI is ending developer access to its models on Cursor after SpaceX bought the company, citing its experience with "Elon Musk's companies violating contracts")
SpaceX (Bought Cursor earlier in the month, and separately launched NASA's Roman Space Telescope)
NASA and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (The $4.3 billion instrument that will search for planets for the James Webb Space Telescope to examine more closely, and shed light on dark matter and dark energy)
The Wall Street Journal (Cited on the desk as having a real problem with the Venezuela deal, and the source of Sorkin's line about exporting crony capitalism)
Truth Social (Where the president posted the AI-generated video threatening Kharg Island, and said he would use Venezuelan crude to refill the SPR)
Nasdaq (The MarketSite in Times Square, where the program is broadcast)
Books & Resources Mentioned
The U.S. struck Iran at Larak Island – CNBC (The report behind the opening item, linked from the episode's own notes)
Trump, Hormuz, Kharg and Larak: analysts on the sanctions – CNBC (Murphy's own write-up of the exchanges he reported on air)
OpenAI to end Cursor's model access after the SpaceX deal – CNBC (The story the Cursor item was read from)
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