Summary: A Fed hike is still a coin flip. The AI investment cycle looks sustainable, and semis/hyperscalers are converging. JPMorgan is stepping into national problems: a $750B housing push, a $1.5T security-and-resiliency effort, and ending U.S. reliance on China for rare earths and critical goods. Berkshire, the "quintessential anti-AI name," is now deploying cash under Greg Abel and buying back shares. PGA Tour is rebuilding around a for-profit, players-earn-equity model.
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Macro
The breakeven jobs number has gone from 120k to 50k a month
“The breakeven level, the number of jobs you need every month to hold the unemployment rate flat, is going down. If you look at so far this year, we've been averaging about 50,000 to 60,000 jobs a month. On average, the unemployment rate has been going down. It kind of speaks to this idea that the breakeven level is lower. That just means you're going to get negative jobs numbers more often. It's sort of a statistical artifact of that — if the breakeven level is lower, you'll be bobbing around the zero line more often.” - Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Head of US Economic Research on Bloomberg This Weekend
Lower unemployment numbers may push the Fed to hike rates
“The last employment report pushes the Fed further in the direction of hiking, not away from it. That's a misconception in the marketplace. To borrow from Janet Yellen, the unemployment rate is the single best indicator of labor market health. What happened with the unemployment rate? It fell. When you look at the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, their dot plot, they look at the unemployment rate — that is the measure they focus on primarily. To the extent it's going down, it's going to push the hawks to be even more aggressive, pushing for hikes going forward. So I don't really buy the idea that the jobs number pushes them from anything. If anything, it pushes them toward it.” - Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Head of US Economic Research on Bloomberg This Weekend
The labor market hinges on the economy, not AI
“In the near to medium term — forget the long term, none of us know — I think the fear is way overdone. This is a technology innovation cycle that will disrupt the labor market somewhat, but it's not the first time. We looked at the prior five big investment cycles going back to the 1700s — steam engine, railways, autos, PCs — and three out of five times the unemployment rate ticked higher. At the end of the day, the labor market hinges on the overall economy: when the economy is good, companies don't use AI to fire people; they use it to grow. That's what we've been seeing, and there's no real statistical evidence that companies are laying off in a meaningful way because of AI, even if they blame AI when they announce it. It's when the economy goes south that companies start thinking about downsizing using AI. So AI is a headwind to wage growth, but I don't think we see a major disruption. Historically, the economy creates new types of jobs, and I think it will with AI too.” - Ohsung Kwon, Wells Fargo’s Chief Equity Strategist on WSJ’s Take On the Week
Entry-level workers face the most AI stress — but also the most upside
“Entry-level is where we see the biggest stress in the labor market right now, and it's really because of AI. There are two schools of thought: one, they face bigger pressure because they lack experience; two, from day one they're a lot more productive because they already know how to use AI in ways beyond what we know — they'll be more native in it, the way millennials were better with PCs and the internet than boomers. But the white-collar economy works on knowledge handed down from older workers to younger ones. We can automate a lot, but we still need younger cohorts to learn the system and then use AI to automate some of it. One funny thing: across past tech cycles, white-collar jobs were the only ones that got busier — average work hours rose for white-collar and fell for everyone else. I think AI shrinks the expected turnaround time for projects dramatically, which actually makes people work harder.” - Ohsung Kwon, Wells Fargo’s Chief Equity Strategist on WSJ’s Take On the Week
The K-shaped consumer is holding up
“The consumer overall is doing okay. It’s been a K-shaped environment — the high-income consumer has been doing really well, the low-income consumer has not. But a lot of banks are actually starting to see the low end do a little better; the labor market is still very strong, so overall consumer health is fine. There’s also relief coming from the “one big bill” refunds for consumers — we estimate about $800 more per person this year versus last, which is significant. The catch is that because of higher oil prices, we estimate the consumer runs out of that extra money by around September. But that assumed $100 oil, and oil has come down at least a little, so that’s a nice tailwind.” - Ohsung Kwon, Wells Fargo’s Chief Equity Strategist on WSJ’s Take On the Week
The American Dream is achievable, but the bottom 20% has been left behind
“You can’t fix problems you don’t acknowledge. If you look at the American Dream, the middle class has gotten bigger. Most have gotten wealthier. The country is clearly wealthier, and the rich have gotten richer. But the real issue is the bottom 20%. Their incomes have not gone up for 20 years, and maybe longer than that. They’re the ones who drive home to more crime in the neighborhoods. They’re the ones whose kids are going to schools that aren’t getting the best possible education to give them the opportunity. So for them, it’s slipping. And I completely understand why they’re angry — why doesn’t it work for them? Now, it’s true in every country of the world. This has been true for a long time. Whether you're a Democrat or Republican, acknowledge the problem and then start to say, how can you fix it? How can you get the schools to do the right thing, how can you reduce crime, how can you create more jobs? That's what we should be working on — solutions to that problem. And it causes a lot of the polarization today.” - Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO on Firing Line with Margaret Hoover
Every system has flaws, but capitalism lifted billions out of poverty
“This is a really important distinction. Every system has flaws. There’s never been a system that’s perfect. Some of the flaws people talk about today — if you go to any country, there are poor people, there are slums, there are problems under any system. So the notion that capitalism is the reason you have that is not exactly right. That’s number one. The other thing is, some of it’s just bad people. There are bad people in capitalist societies. There are bad people in communist societies. When people talk about capitalism, they’re confusing all these things at once. But I totally agree — it has left behind certain people. We should acknowledge that. Even the people it hasn’t left behind aren’t happy that others have been left behind. They should have a conscience. People should say, I want to be part of lifting up all society — not just my part of society or my part of the town. So I think that’s brilliant. Capitalism has brought billions of people out of poverty. It’s invented all this stuff. Even China — what is it doing? Well, capitalism invented a lot of stuff.” - Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO on Firing Line with Margaret Hoover
International
JPMorgan banks China, but the government draws the limits
“We do business in China. We bank a couple hundred Chinese companies, but we also bank in China something like two or three thousand multinationals. I've told my board, and I've been public: yes, it's hard doing business there. We want to. America should engage with China, but no one wants us to leave China — not those multinationals, not the American government, not the American military. I follow the law of the land. It's the Treasury Department, the State Department, and the military who tell us what we can and can't do regarding China, Chinese companies, and China sanctions. To that, we salute and do it. The best solution with China isn't to go to war with China. It's to engage with them and have a peaceful resolution. We have a lot of common interests — anti-nuclear proliferation, anti-terrorism, growing your economies. And we've got a couple that isn't the same. If they're aiding and abetting Iran, it's not the same. And anything that goes wrong in Taiwan is definitely not the same. That's government policy. I don't set government policy, nor does JPMorgan.” - Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO on Firing Line with Margaret Hoover
Technology
July's selloff was leverage, not a broken AI thesis
“A lot of what happened in July was due to leverage in the system — there was a lot of risk-taking in April and May, and now that the excess has come out, positioning is a lot cleaner. People also built bear cases around the falling tape — the thing happens, then everyone comes up with the reason why. Some bear cases were reasonable, like what open source means for the AI ecosystem. But the big fears — that hyperscalers aren't monetizing, that they're overinvesting, that the CapEx cycle isn't sustainable — got debunked by the hyperscaler earnings. They posted great results, their ROI is improving, and they showed this CapEx cycle can be sustained. So we continue to see more upside.” - Ohsung Kwon, Wells Fargo’s Chief Equity Strategist on WSJ’s Take On the Week
The next phase of the AI trade: semis and hyperscalers move as one
“The dispersion we're focused on is semis versus hyperscalers — essentially the check writers versus the check receivers. We've seen huge outperformance in semis over the past two years, which made sense: hyperscalers weren't showing much monetization but were spending hundreds of billions in CapEx, and that CapEx is basically revenue for semis. Going forward, our big call is that they start trading together, because now it's more about the sustainability of the CapEx cycle and whether AI makes money overall, rather than the sheer size of CapEx. Over the past six months, those two have traded negatively — the correlation is about negative 30%, an all-time low. But look at prior investment cycles: during the shale revolution, E&P (Exploration and Production) companies and oil-services companies traded together; during the dot-com bubble, the telecom spenders and the communications-equipment companies traded together. I think that's the next phase of this AI cycle.” - Ohsung Kwon, Wells Fargo’s Chief Equity Strategist on WSJ’s Take On the Week
The AI boom is not the dot-com boom
“I don't think this is 1999 — the huge difference is earnings. During the internet bubble there were no earnings; people were just speculating while prices surged.” - Ohsung Kwon, Wells Fargo’s Chief Equity Strategist on WSJ’s Take On the Week
AI spending as a share of GDP: as big as the 1850s railroads
“Information-processing equipment — semis and hardware — is about 2.5% of GDP right now, still below the internet peak and roughly in line with the PC boom of the 1980s. Based on hyperscaler CapEx estimates, that shoots up to about 3% by the end of this year, which is roughly in line with the railroad investment cycle of the 1850s. That means this could be about as big as it gets, unless other parts of the economy start growing too. Because who's funding the CapEx cycle? Hyperscalers, through operating cash flow tied to the overall economy, and enterprises spending on cloud and AI. So the profit cycle has to stay healthy — and I think it will. There are signs the AI CapEx cycle is fueling the broader economy: about 25% of GDP growth over the past year came from tech, semis, hardware and software, and it's trickling down into industrials and transportation. I'm pretty positive on the economy overall. But the message is that the overall economy has to hold for this CapEx cycle to continue.” - Ohsung Kwon, Wells Fargo’s Chief Equity Strategist on WSJ’s Take On the Week
Higher rates and debt risk slowing the AI cycle
“What could potentially slow this down is higher rates. Even during the tech bubble, a lot of people say actually rates were one of the bigger culprits of the bubble popping in 2000. On the way up to that peak in the tech bubble, it survived a lot of the headwinds. So it's not that the market only hinges on what's happening with the Fed. Especially this cycle, as long as earnings are okay, this could continue. The risk to that is hyperscalers are starting to issue debt. So the higher the interest rates go, the more expensive it's going to get. But I don't think it's going to be a huge issue for hyperscalers.” - Ohsung Kwon, Wells Fargo’s Chief Equity Strategist on WSJ’s Take On the Week
Revenue could accelerate as GPUs come online
“[Hyperscalers] showed really good monetization, and they were all basically saying that there's a lag between when they invest in capex and when they start monetizing, and they're at a point where they're starting to plug in GPUs. The first phase was building data centers — the shell. And now they're starting to plug in the GPUs, which they could monetize right away. So we're talking about potential acceleration in revenue. CapEx is probably going to go higher in 2027, but that's going to be funded mostly with operating cash flow, and I think the market's going to be okay with that.” - Ohsung Kwon, Wells Fargo’s Chief Equity Strategist on WSJ’s Take On the Week
Consumer
Consumer companies are the largest beneficiaries of tariff refunds
“When the Supreme Court ruled against the tariffs earlier this year, we were quite skeptical the refunds would actually go out — it seemed unlikely the government would return money to companies. But it’s happening. It started on May 11th, about two and a half months ago, and so far about $100 billion of refunds have been issued back to companies. That’s about 0.3% of GDP, so if it gets used, it’s going to boost GDP. This is essentially a cash injection to consumer companies. They pay the most and were the biggest importers, so we estimate tariff refunds alone could boost staples companies’ earnings in Q2 by about 34%.” - Ohsung Kwon, Wells Fargo’s Chief Equity Strategist on WSJ’s Take On the Week
Most tariff refunds will be reinvested into CapEx and buybacks
“A few companies have talked about lowering prices now that they’re getting money back, but I doubt that’s going to be broad-based. Most companies will reinvest — CapEx makes a lot of sense now that bonus depreciation lets them deduct 100% of CapEx right away. And nobody’s really saying this, but I think they’ll do a lot of buybacks too, which benefits shareholders. For the broader economy, I don’t think we’re going to see much deflation. From a company’s perspective, why would you lower a price you already raised and slash your margins when you don’t have to?” - Ohsung Kwon, Wells Fargo’s Chief Equity Strategist on WSJ’s Take On the Week
Regulation, not money, is the biggest obstacle to affordable housing
“It’s regulations — and it could be federal, state, or local. We put on top of regulations. The permitting takes too long. It’s hard to build. You can’t get space that’s close enough to town. There are a lot of local laws — you can’t build a second story, you can’t turn a second dwelling into a house, you can’t use the basement as an apartment. There are tons of laws. In California, the analysis I’ve seen shows that it costs 40 or 50% more to build affordable housing than it does in Nevada. Sometimes it’s ‘not-in-my-backyard’. Sometimes it’s the regulations. Sometimes they put a lot of social things — you have to use union work, you have to do all these various things. If you want affordable housing, make it cheaper, make it easier to do.” - Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO on Firing Line with Margaret Hoover
PGA Tour
The LIV deal is paused; a $3 billion investor group stepped in instead
“[The merger] has been on an indefinite pause. But the PGA Tour has evolved since then. LIV Golf entered and caused a lot of chaos, but then you had the Strategic Sports Group — backed by Fenway Sports Group, backed by Steve Cohen, the Mets owner, and Arthur Blank, the Falcons owner. They and a lot more people put up to $3 billion into the PGA Tour, which created a for-profit arm called PGA Tour Enterprises. Since then, the PGA Tour has been slowly trying to recalibrate itself to get on the right track, to evolve, to fill in some of the holes that maybe LIV Golf exposed.” - Randall Williams, Bloomberg Senior Reporter on Bloomberg Money
PGA Tour is once again the dominant franchise
“We're a couple of years away from [a TV streaming bidding war], but media rights are a huge part of the sports business, and if you're not in the media business, your sport isn't going to last very long. The PGA Tour is still the dominant presence in golf. Now that [the threat of LIV] is not in existence anymore, the PGA Tour is once again a dominant franchise that broadcasters are going to be bidding on.” - Randall Williams, Bloomberg Senior Reporter on Bloomberg Money
The sport has grown by 40% since Covid, and has the potential for more
“If there is one thing I learned at the NFL over two decades, it's that if you're not going forward, you're going backward, and innovation matters. When I first took the job I said we would honor tradition but not be overly bound by it. Maybe golf has a reputation as elitist, but if you look at the growth since Covid, participation in golf in this country has grown 39%. You do not have to play a sport to watch it on TV, but it helps. The average age of a professional tour telecast is 66 years old. There is a disconnect about where the sport is going.” - Brian Rolapp, PGA Tour CEO on Bloomberg Money
Big innovation in sports rarely happens without a crisis
[LIV Golf helped expose some weaknesses of the tour.] If you look at the history of the sports industry, huge innovation usually does not happen without a crisis. It can be a labor dispute — the USFL, the AFL. When I looked at this opportunity, I saw the AFL and NFL; it led to changes that accelerated growth. We have that moment here. A lot of shortcomings in professional golf came out with a little bit of competition. Competition is a good thing. We are trying to build something that outlives all of us.
Financials
Berkshire Hathaway
Berkshire Hathaway is the anti-AI thesis trade
"One of the curses of Berkshire is it gets seen as this market proxy — but not the current market, which is now dominated by AI. This stock is the quintessential anti-AI name. When you see those swings in tech, it should probably go the other way, but it hasn't. The overhang is still there — the Buffett hangover, and people are kind of still waiting on Greg Abel. Even though he's doing a great job, there's going to be that overhang for a little bit longer. But the value of these industrial businesses, manufacturing businesses will manifest itself more over time." - Matthew Palazola, Bloomberg’s Senior P&C Insurance Equity Analyst on Bloomberg This Weekend
Berkshire restarted buybacks, but less than expected
"They bought back about $4.5 billion worth of their own shares. That is much more than they've done over the past couple of years, but less than I thought they were going to, given some disclosures they made in July. I thought around eight. My guess is that [Abel] views the intrinsic value of the businesses a little bit higher these days." - Matthew Palazola, Bloomberg’s Senior P&C Insurance Equity Analyst on Bloomberg This Weekend
Core businesses are improving
“Number one, the insurance businesses — they're overearning, but some of the gains they're making are sustainable, so he's looking at that a little bit better. Burlington Northern and the railroad — he's got his eyes on that. He called them out at the annual meeting. He said they're going to improve their margins there. The underlying earnings power of those businesses is improving.” - Matthew Palazola, Bloomberg’s Senior P&C Insurance Equity Analyst on Bloomberg This Weekend
Abel is focused on improving Burlington Northern
“Berkshire is huge on these monopolistic, necessary businesses that will be around for as long as time. That was the impetus behind buying Burlington Northern years ago. What has happened is that the metrics versus public peers are just worse. Their operating ratio, which is a railroad metric, has been worse than their closest competitor. Abel is really focused on improving that, and it's languished for years. Should they do that, it increases the intrinsic value of the business. It's still a great business for them, but it needs improvement.” - Matthew Palazola, Bloomberg’s Senior P&C Insurance Equity Analyst on Bloomberg This Weekend
GEICO’s swing can move earnings by billions
“One of the biggest things that’s swinging their results is GEICO. They own GEICO. They’ve owned it since the seventies. The auto insurance business saw a big spike in losses post-COVID because of the cost of auto parts. What all of the auto insurance companies did was raise rates a lot … and all of the results of the auto insurance companies got much better, to record levels. Now all the big players are trying to grow. They’re all now fighting. The swing in the auto insurance results will, by billions of dollars, swing their earnings.” - Matthew Palazola, Bloomberg’s Senior P&C Insurance Equity Analyst on Bloomberg This Weekend
Berkshire’s core equity portfolio will not change
“He explicitly said we’re going to focus on this core group of stocks [Apple, American Express, Coca-Cola, Bank of America, Alphabet] and not trade much around them... They made some moves around Apple, took out a lot of Bank of America stock over the past couple of years, so it stays pretty steady.” - Matthew Palazola, Bloomberg’s Senior P&C Insurance Equity Analyst on Bloomberg This Weekend
Berkshire is on a buying spree
“They bought a homebuilder, Taylor Morrison, for $6.8 billion. They also bought $10 billion worth of Google stock. They bought a stake in a Japanese insurance company, Tokio Marine. This was actually a spending quarter for them... it looks like they were a net buyer of stocks over six months. They're putting more money to work than Buffett was doing in his last year as CEO." - Matthew Palazola, Bloomberg’s Senior P&C Insurance Equity Analyst on Bloomberg This Weekend
The Taylor Morrison buy is about necessity, not timing
“They have homebuilding businesses that they own. This was a complement to the home businesses that they already own. They do manufactured homes, which is Clayton Homes — they build the home, and then they bring you your house, put it down. [Taylor Morrison] is more building higher-end homes on-site. Berkshire is not looking to time things and get it right at the exact moment. They want to be in these necessary businesses. Homebuilding is going to be necessary over time. That was probably the impetus for this deal, rather than ‘maybe now is the exact right time to buy this company.’” - Matthew Palazola, Bloomberg’s Senior P&C Insurance Equity Analyst on Bloomberg This Weekend
Abel vs. Buffett — how the new CEO is different:
“[Greg Abel] is much more communicative than Buffett was... More in the annual meeting — talking, having more managers there, giving more detail on the companies. It was great to hear [Buffett’s] wit and wisdom, but he was really not talking too much about the operating results of the companies. Abel is doing that. He seems to be much more focused on the operations of the companies, the nitty-gritty. Buffett had said over the past couple of years that he was passing people off to Abel regardless, so he was kind of running the ship for a while anyway.” - Matthew Palazola, Bloomberg’s Senior P&C Insurance Equity Analyst on Bloomberg This Weekend
Industrials and Transport
America has an unbelievable ability to innovate
“A company called Zipline that makes drones. They saved 17,000 lives in Rwanda by delivering medicine to remote locations. They are now doing flights in America to get people medicines or food or delivery. Just think about this: instead of getting into a 4,000-pound car and driving for 35 minutes to pick up a $30 meal and deliver it, this drone delivers it in four or five minutes. It doesn't burn the CO2; it doesn't use as much energy. It's safer on the roads. Traffic goes down. Traffic accidents go down. America has this unbelievable ability to innovate like that. And unleashing it to help the military, our security side — that's going to be important too.” - Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO on Firing Line with Margaret Hoover
Defense
JPMorgan won’t be any better than the country it depends on
“The national interest is more important than JPMorgan. Here’s a very important point: JPMorgan probably will not be any better than our country. If our country doesn’t do well, JPMorgan will suffer. Our country is the leader of the world. If we are not the leader in the world, there will be a huge vacuum, and it will not be to our benefit.
Here are some basic principles: to be safe, have the best military in the world. If you want the best military in the world, you have the best economy in the world. We asked ourselves, what can we do to help? What are the problems? And we got this from military officers and political leaders — what are the things that are not working? Then we did some real deep-dive analysis. We’ve shared it with people by industry: where are we relying on potential adversaries for things that we should not be reliant on? That includes missile parts, rare earths, active pharmaceutical ingredients. It also includes things in cyber, AI, and all these other things.
So we said, let’s double down and do it. Take our capability — we’ve hired a lot of people. Let’s make the world safe and secure for democracy. And I do believe that America is what makes the world safe and secure for democracy. If America is in a weakened state — if we’re not the strongest military in 25 years and the strongest economy — we won’t be the reserve currency either. The world will be fragmented, and it’ll be very dangerous for us. To me, this is more about keeping the world safe for democracy and freedom. And the alternative isn’t very good.” - Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO on Firing Line with Margaret Hoover
The U.S. can't rely on adversaries for critical goods — and we're behind
“If you look at about 10 or 15 years ago, we should have looked at what's happening on rare earths, aluminum, certain steel — not all steel, certain steel — production of certain equipment, and said, we can't rely on China for that. And we can't allow mercantilist behavior. We need to do it here. We made a mistake. Now we acknowledge it. Let's just go fix it. And that's what this is. We don't have a lot of time. The war in Iran has pointed out we didn't have productive capability to defend the United States if there was a real war that lasted for a long period of time. If you believe America is necessary for the free world, this is something we have to do, and we have to do it now.” - Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO on Firing Line with Margaret Hoover
The best military is the best deterrent — and the cheapest option
“They say a great military is expensive. Fighting a war is very expensive. Losing the war is the most expensive. Every military officer will tell you one major principle: have the best military — that is the best deterrent. It also helps the most allies, helps the most world growth, and defends democracy. And we still have it, by the way. If you speak to the militaries, they still have that. They're just slipping in some of these categories, and we shouldn't allow ourselves to slip. That's a sine qua non — have the best military. Then you have to define exactly what it means by pieces of equipment and training. We have the best-trained military in the world. We have the best equipment in the world. But it's changing rapidly, as you just stated, with drones. Some of these things are constantly changing on the battlefield, so we have to move quicker too.” - Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO on Firing Line with Margaret Hoover
Politics
We stopped teaching civic responsibility
“We should educate ourselves about what this country stands for, has stood for always. I remind people that the Constitution is a legal document. The Bill of Rights is a legal document protecting the rights of individuals against the mothership type of thing. But what's the underpinning to that? Freedom of speech, freedom of religion, family, country, God, civic responsibility. The Founding Fathers always spoke about civic responsibility. They expected political leaders to have civic responsibility. It's those values that underpin America. We stopped teaching them. You can look at a lot of high school curriculums today, and they're mostly teaching about how bad America was. Of course, there were some bad things in our past. We all know that. We should acknowledge that and fix them. But to take away the principles — they knew it wasn't a perfect union when they built it. They said we're on the path to a more perfect union, and that's true today.” - Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO on Firing Line with Margaret Hoover
Patriotism is about what America stands for, not nationalism
Margaret: In the lobby of your new New York City headquarters, there is an American flag that is always blowing with the wind. And it is said that you salute the flag every morning.
Jamie Dimon: I do.
Margaret: What does patriotism mean to you?
Jamie Dimon: It’s different for this company, because it’s not nationalism per se — you could be a patriot in a country that’s autocratic. Patriotism here is what this country stands for. And what it stands for is extraordinary. I tell a lot of people here, when I hear certain criticisms: go around the world with me a little bit, and when you come back here, you will kiss the ground. They don’t even understand the freedoms and liberties they have. If they understood that, they would salute that flag the way I do. It’s important we teach it. Why do people die for this country? Why did they fight the Revolutionary War? Those values transcend most other things. They’re perpetual, they’re forever. They’re not going to disappear over time. - Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO on Firing Line with Margaret Hoover
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