Bloomberg Talks Sep 18, 2026
With Dana Telsey, Chief Research Officer and Founder at Telsey Advisory Group
Gap has produced 10% same-store sales growth for two quarters running. Ross Stores has been comping in double digits. Victoria's Secret is in the same group.
The names doing best in American retail right now are the ones most people had written off, and the region carrying the luxury houses is not Europe or China but North America.
"Brand names that have been tired and old are reinventing themselves."
Dana Telsey has covered retail from luxury through big box for long enough that she flew a red eye into New York to make the segment, and her firm's analysts are visiting On and Adidas before both companies hold investor days.
The full segment is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 8 insights that matter.
Key Takeaways
Gap has comped 10% for two quarters and Ross Stores has been comping in double digits, the two names nobody expected
The word she hears from management teams after earnings is acceleration, and she listed six different kinds of it
Luxury is weak because Europe's consumer is challenged and Chinese travelers are gone; North America is the strong region
She does not think there is a K-shaped economy, citing Jamie Dimon, and says the lower end is discerning rather than absent
Home Depot needs housing to turn before its stock does, and the same goes for Lowe's and Williams-Sonoma
Store closures are essentially finished, and malls are now producing some of the best returns in commercial real estate
Alexandre Arnault joined Nike's board, which she read as luxury and sportswear blending
The Louis Vuitton trunks at 57th and 5th are, in her words, the most Instagrammable place in Manhattan
1. Hermes Goes to Williamsburg
The segment opened on Hermes opening a permanent store in Williamsburg, which a host framed as the oddest retail story in New York this year. Telsey did not find it odd.
The brand follows the customer who already knows it
You look at the neighborhoods where they're going, they're going where the customer's aware of their brand name, and they're buying there.
Dana Telsey
Asked whether there was evidence it would work, she pointed to the test the company had already run.
A pop-up that works becomes a lease
They did the pop-up to test it. But if you tested it and it did well, that's why you're opening a permanent store. Pop-ups are the entryway to a permanent store if you get the revenues you thought you got.
Dana Telsey
2. Why Luxury Is Struggling
A host asked why luxury is flat on its back, and French luxury in particular. Her answer had nothing to do with the products.
Europe is weak and the Chinese tourist is gone
A couple things. Number one, Europe consumer is very challenged lately. You're not getting tourists and you're not getting the Chinese traveling. More Chinese are spending on some of their own local brands. And the region that's the strongest is North America.
Dana Telsey
The next set of sales numbers arrives in October, and she said it will show the same pattern. What matters inside that is the channel: the strength is in the houses' own stores rather than wholesale, and several of them have opened new flagships, including Dior's in the past year.
North America, and specifically their own stores
As these companies report sales and the next grouping of sales will come out in October, it's all about North America where the strength is. And it's in their own stores.
Dana Telsey
3. The Two Retail Themes
Asked for the number one theme for her clients, with higher interest rates on one side and a higher stock market on the other, Telsey gave two. The first is that written-off brands are working again.
Tired brands are reinventing themselves
A couple things. Number one, I think legacy modernizing. Brand names that have been tired and old are reinventing themselves. You look at a Gap, which did 10% comps for the past two quarters. You look at Ross Stores, which has been double-digit comping. You take a look at Victoria's Secret.
Dana Telsey
The second came out of the conference circuit. She and her team had spoken to chief executives and finance chiefs over the two weeks after earnings, many of whom also presented at conferences, and one word repeated.
One word keeps coming up in management calls
As you go through what they're talking about, what is a word that's coming in with many of them? The word acceleration.
Dana Telsey
She then broke the word into six different kinds, each with a name attached. Accelerating sales at Victoria's Secret and Estee Lauder. Accelerating store traffic at FIGS and Kroger. Accelerating customer counts, where her example was a loyalty program.
The customer-count example is a loyalty program
You look at Ulta, which has 47 million loyalty members.
Dana Telsey
Accelerating store openings at Reformation. Accelerating transformation at Macy's, where she told the hosts to walk across the street to Bloomingdale's and look at the new brands. And accelerating deal activity.
Deal acceleration has a name too
And some with companies like G3, which just bought Marc Jacobs from LVMH.
Dana Telsey
4. No K-Shaped Economy
A host raised the K-shaped economy and asked how it shapes her coverage. She pushed back on the premise, and credited the pushback to someone else.
She sides with Dimon against the K
I think, frankly, look what Jamie Dimon said a couple weeks ago, where there isn't a K-shaped economy. Even the lower end, they're definitely more discerning because whether it's higher gas prices, food prices, but everyone is looking for something new or a little bit different.
Dana Telsey
Her evidence is where the lower-income customer is spending rather than whether. Beauty products are now sold through off-price retailers and are being bought there. Her second example was a discount chain and a toy.
The hottest toy has people queuing
Squishy dumplings is the hottest toy out there. People are waiting online for it. There's going to be some treasure hunts for squishy dumplings.
Dana Telsey
5. Big Box Waits on Housing
A host read out an emailed question from Joe Feldman: Home Depot has produced a single-digit return since COVID, so is there a strategy to change that or are the big-box names resigned to it. Telsey named one variable.
Housing is the switch
What's going to get them going and what's going to turn the spigot? Basically, a return of housing. Anything where you see a housing pickup, the acceleration of Home Depot will be there, just like the acceleration of Lowe's.
Dana Telsey
She put Williams-Sonoma in the same bucket. What is already working, without a housing recovery, is the cheaper end of home goods: pillows, towels and other soft furnishings at HomeGoods, where she said sales have been comping well.
People are refreshing the house the way they refresh a wardrobe
But they've been comping very nicely because just like people are refreshing their wardrobes and clothing, they're refreshing their wardrobes and home. It's been six years now since COVID.
Dana Telsey
6. Store Closures Are Done
A host noted that the industry had spent more than a decade talking about right-sizing the American department store footprint, which meant closing stores, and asked where that process now stands.
The closing program is finished
Shutting stores, for the most part, you're pretty much done on shutting stores. When you look at commercial real estate, you're seeing some of the biggest returns lately on malls.
Dana Telsey
Macy's is her example of a company that has reset its store count and then rebuilt what is left. The demand side surprised the hosts.
Gen Z shops in stores, together
Now they have these reimagined stores. And you're seeing Gen Z teenagers going to stores. They like going with their friends. They like trying on together.
Dana Telsey
A store is a destination and it carries traffic, she said, which is the opposite of the assumption the right-sizing decade was built on.
7. The Shoe Wars
A host raised On signing the French players Kylian Mbappé and Thierry Henry for soccer shoes, mentioned a Filipino tennis player he believed had a Nike deal, and asked about the state of the athletic shoe market. The show's own figure was that Nike stock is down 40% this year.
Athlete partnerships work, so everyone is doing them
Well, one of the things you see is everyone wants to emulate who these big stars are. It works.
Dana Telsey
Her firm has an analyst covering On, Christina, who visits the company next week ahead of its investor day. Adidas is holding one as well, and Nike's is in November.
Every company is about to reset its targets
So all the companies are going to reset their algorithms and talk about what does the future growth look like.
Dana Telsey
On what Nike is changing, she described a wholesale strategy and a product strategy rather than a marketing fix, though she expects new advertising to feature at the investor day.
Nike is rebuilding wholesale and product at once
Well, basically, one of the things they're doing now is resetting, so they have wholesale partnerships like with Dick's Sporting Goods. It's a new product that they're introducing, not just the same functionalities like they had in the past.
Dana Telsey
Then she raised a governance item from the previous day that she read as the two industries blending.
Luxury just took a seat on Nike's board
Alexandre Arnault went on the board of Nike.
Dana Telsey
8. 57th Street and 5th Avenue
A host asked which of the four corners at 57th and 5th is the most interesting story going forward, listing Tiffany, the Louis Vuitton building, Van Cleef and Bulgari. She would not pick one.
Two of the four, and one of them serves lunch
I think the LV and the Tiffany. I mean, look what Tiffany's doing with restaurants. They have the Blue Box Cafe.
Dana Telsey
The Louis Vuitton site is the one she is waiting to see finished, and her reason for it was foot traffic rather than sales per square foot.
The trunks are the most photographed thing in Manhattan
And frankly, though, you look at all the pictures that are being taken of those trunks of LV. It's the most Instagrammable place in Manhattan.
Dana Telsey
On Tiffany's link necklace, which a host said the company mints money on, she added the detail that matters commercially.
The product is sold out, not just selling
They do. They mint and they're out of stock. That's the other thing also. Back order time.
Dana Telsey
Bonus Insights
White sneakers with a suit are why On sells
It's a trend. It is a trend. It's comfortable. Why is On so popular? Because you can wear them with suits.
Dana Telsey
The hosts spent a stretch of the segment on grown men wearing white sneakers with dark suits, and her answer turned it into a product point: the shoe's growth comes from being worn outside sport.
A red eye buys you a working day
Basically, I look at it as there's productivity in being able to take a red eye because then you're here for the day.
Dana Telsey
The hosts had opened by pointing out that she had flown overnight to get to the studio and joked about calling her boss, which she noted is herself.
Telsey's bottom line is that American retail is being carried by reinvented legacy brands, accelerating trends at specific companies rather than a rising tide, and a store base that has stopped shrinking, while the big-box names wait on a housing recovery they cannot create themselves.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
Hermes (Opening a permanent Williamsburg store after a pop-up test, which she said is how a pop-up is supposed to work)
Gap and Ross Stores (Her two examples of legacy modernizing: 10% comps for two quarters at one, double-digit comping at the other)
Victoria's Secret and Estee Lauder (Both named for accelerating sales trends after earnings)
Ulta (Her customer-acceleration example, with 47 million loyalty members)
Reformation (Named for an accelerating rate of new store openings)
Macy's and Bloomingdale's (Her transformation example; Macy's reset its store count and now has reimagined stores, and she told the hosts to cross the street to see Bloomingdale's new brands)
Marc Jacobs and LVMH (The brand G3 has just bought from LVMH, which she used as her deal-acceleration example)
Home Depot and Lowe's (Both need a housing recovery before the stocks move, in answer to an emailed question about Home Depot's single-digit return since COVID)
Williams-Sonoma (The third name she put on the housing recovery)
HomeGoods (Comping well now on cheaper soft home goods, because people refresh the house the way they refresh a wardrobe)
On (Signing Mbappé and Thierry Henry for soccer, holding an investor day her analyst is attending, and selling because the shoes can be worn with a suit)
Nike (Resetting wholesale through Dick's and introducing new product rather than new functionality; Alexandre Arnault has joined the board)
Adidas (Also holding an investor day, ahead of Nike's in November)
Dick's Sporting Goods (The wholesale partner in Nike's reset)
Tiffany (The Blue Box Cafe as a restaurant strategy, and a link necklace she says is on back order)
Louis Vuitton (The 57th and 5th site she is waiting on, whose trunks she calls the most Instagrammable place in Manhattan)
Dior (Among the flagships opened in the past year, part of the shift into the houses' own stores)
Five Below (Where the more discerning lower-income customer is buying, including the squishy dumpling toy)
G3 (The buyer of Marc Jacobs, named as evidence that deal activity is accelerating)
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