Bloomberg Talks Sep 21, 2026
With Jamieson Greer, US Trade Representative
The United States now imports less from China than at any time since 2003, and the goods deficit with China has fallen by a third, Jamieson Greer said the morning after a weekend of talks with Chinese officials.
The usual American approach has been to tell Beijing which of its domestic practices to change. Greer said he has given that up as a use of time, and is working on outcomes he can reach without Chinese reform.
"So we could spend all day talking about excess capacity, which is a huge problem, and I have an investigation going on, or we can just act to protect our economy and find ways to accommodate the Chinese to prevent things from blowing up."
Greer, the US Trade Representative, on Bloomberg Talks, negotiated the agreements with 15 to 20 trading partners that followed January's global tariff round, and spent the previous day at the table with the Chinese side alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, three days before President Xi arrives in Washington.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 9 arguments that matter.
Key Takeaways
The goods deficit with China has fallen by a third, to the lowest import level since 2003
Some of it is diversion rather than disappearance, with parts routed through third countries where the labor value is added
Greer has stopped asking China to change and is working on outcomes instead, while running his own excess-capacity investigation that could end in tariffs
The November 10 truce will not be extended this week, and three to six months is the range he says is probably right
His reason for keeping it short is that China created the uncertainty by restricting rare earth exports
Transshipment is the problem he names first, and rules of origin with Mexico are the fix being drafted
Only two countries retaliated against January's tariffs: China and Canada — and Canada also banned American alcohol and American firms from its procurement
The US measures that followed cover about 5% of Canadian goods, which he puts at 0.06% of US consumption
Canada asked for a deal, agreed to parts of it, then suspended the talks days later
"Zero growth plus zero growth still equals zero growth" is his verdict on Canada pairing up with the EU
He says nothing stops BYD building in America, and nothing needs to — Chinese carmakers are losing money and the connected-vehicle rules already shut them out
A diesel export ban is being explored because senior Republicans asked, though he says the US has a price problem rather than a supply problem
1. Managed Trade, Not Reform
Jonathan Ferro opened by asking how Greer would characterize the weekend's talks and what the objective is now, given that reciprocity was the stated aim in the president's first term.
His account of the weekend
They were positive. They were constructive, always very professional. We made headway. The focus is on stability between the U.S. and China, and we're continuing that.
Jamieson Greer
Reciprocity is still the North Star, he said, but the shape it takes now is a permanent set of controls in both directions rather than a negotiated opening.
What the controls add up to
So we're just going to have managed trade with China. That's the focus. But just because it's managed doesn't mean we can't have areas that are positive.
Jamieson Greer
Ferro asked what the meetings are actually like, since economists can explain why ending excess capacity is in China's own interest but nobody outside the room hears the reply. Greer's first answer was about the format.
The Chinese side arrives with the script written
Sure. Well, first of all, remember, they're quite scripted when they come. They know what the agenda is going to be. We all know there are really no surprises there.
Jamieson Greer
His second answer was the strategic one, and it is a departure from how Washington has run this file for two decades. The United States has spent years telling China what to change, he said, and it does need to change — but China's political and economic system is not going to.
Why he stopped prescribing and started acting
So we could spend all day talking about excess capacity, which is a huge problem, and I have an investigation going on, or we can just act to protect our economy and find ways to accommodate the Chinese to prevent things from blowing up.
Jamieson Greer
The investigation runs in his own office, he said, and if it finds problems he can impose tariffs or take other measures. In parallel he wants categories of non-sensitive goods where trade can be freer and balanced at the same time.
2. The Deficit Fell A Third
Annmarie Hordern put it to him that he must be pleased, because China is shipping less into the United States. He said he is, and gave the numbers.
The measure he uses, and the year it takes him back to
our trade deficit with China has gone down by a third. The last time we imported this little from China was 2003.
Jamieson Greer
He called that an incredible diversification. Hordern's follow-up was that the goods have not stopped, they have picked up a middleman on the way. Greer accepted part of that: some of it does go to other countries as parts and components, but the labor value is added there and other work happens there too, which he counts as real diversification rather than relabeling.
Where goods are genuinely being passed straight through, he said, enforcement is Customs and Border Protection's job, and a second piece of machinery is being built.
The rule being written with Mexico
Right now we're developing rules of origin with Mexico, which is a possible transshipment point to make sure that goods going between the United States and Mexico are truly from the United States and Mexico and not Chinese inputs.
Jamieson Greer
Asked whether transshipment is his biggest problem, he said it is a big part of it, and that what travels with it matters as much: predatory pricing, dumping and subsidized goods. Chinese non-market practices, on his account, follow Chinese production into the economies it moves to, and he named Vietnam and Korea as examples, so the same distortions have to be controlled for in third countries.
3. No Extension This Week
Lisa Abramowicz asked directly whether the truce that ends on November 10 is being extended.
The answer, and the timing
So we will continue to have discussions about that. Our sense is we aren't going to have the extension today.
Jamieson Greer
Both sides want one, he said, and there is time before the deadline. Hordern asked why it could not simply be extended for the rest of the president's term and the uncertainty taken off the table altogether.
Why the deadline keeps coming back
I think a lot of it is because China has created this uncertainty. They've limited rare earth exports. They've controlled them. We monitor them. And I think just saying we have full trust and full confidence in each other at this point, I think is a little naive.
Jamieson Greer
The relationship between the two presidents is good, he said, but the extensions are what make compliance checkable. Abramowicz asked where his head is, three months or six.
The range he will say out loud
Well, we'll see. That's probably the right kind of range.
Jamieson Greer
He does not expect a date to be announced this week, barring something unforeseen.
4. China's Iran Calculation
Ferro asked whether Iran is part of the week's conversation. Greer said it is, though not a large part, and that it is largely Bessent's file. The Chinese side, he said, has been receptive on the issues being raised.
Asked how much influence Beijing actually has, he split it in two: what its government can control directly, and its private-sector companies, which he said occasionally need intervening with.
Hordern asked whether the United States could offer Beijing something to bring it closer to the American position. Greer said no, and gave a reason that Abramowicz cut straight across — China buys Iranian oil.
Why he thinks the interests still line up
But they want it to go freely through the strait. They don't want it told. That's what they want, right? And they don't want to have instability.
Jamieson Greer
Hordern pressed on the mechanics: if China wants a free waterway, why let traders route payments through Hong Kong banks and settle in Bitcoin to move shipments. Greer's answer was that China has to import energy, and then he drew the line he was prepared to defend.
The distinction between preference and fact
Well, again, because they have to import energy, right? So I'm not making excuses for the Chinese. We don't want them to be buying Iranian oil. We don't want them to be doing that. At the same time, I live in the real world, right? I don't live in the fake world of international relations. They're going to buy oil.
Jamieson Greer
Abramowicz asked whether that made her the resident of the fake world. Greer said he did not know, then made the serious version of the point.
What he wants out of China on Iran
We're in this nice bubble, this nice building. But the reality is we have to deal with powers. And if we can keep them neutral in this thing and try to move toward peace in a way that's aligned, then that's great.
Jamieson Greer
Ferro asked whether that makes Chinese institutions harder to sanction. Greer said sanctions on Chinese entities have happened and that nothing has been removed from consideration, and declined to go further.
Whose decision it is
Well, I'm not going to get ahead of Secretary Bessent. That's his bailiwick there. But the president has not taken anything off the table.
Jamieson Greer
5. The Diesel Export Ban
Hordern asked whether a diesel export ban is also on the table, noting that Greer deals with the agricultural producers who are buying soybeans into China. Abramowicz added that those same producers are being squeezed by diesel prices now.
What he blames for the squeeze
Yeah, the destruction as well of Russian diesel facilities has been a really challenging aspect of this.
Jamieson Greer
He said senior Republican senators, Chuck Grassley among them, have asked for the idea to be looked at, and that when senior Republican leadership asks for something to be explored, it gets explored. He was clear that people are talking about taking an action.
His own reading of the problem
At the same time, with diesel, it's not so much a supply shock in the U.S. as it is a price shock because of the global price.
Jamieson Greer
The United States has the diesel, in other words, and the price it sells at is set somewhere else. He closed the answer by saying these are the kinds of questions you have to think about.
6. Why BYD Stays Out
Hordern said people keep asking her a version of the same question ahead of the Chinese president's visit: would this administration let a company like BYD build in the United States, the way Japanese carmakers were allowed in on the condition they hired Americans?
Greer's first point was legal, and it surprises people.
Nobody is approving or refusing these investments
Well, I think the first thing to understand is there's not some kind of law that gives a thumbs up or down to greenfield investment for the U.S.
Jamieson Greer
Screening exists for foreign buyers of existing businesses, he said, but there is no process by which the president waves a new factory through or turns it away. Abramowicz put it that the administration can still make it easier or harder. Greer's answer was that the market has already done the work.
Four reasons he says it would not happen anyway
I would say there are actually a lot of natural obstacles for Chinese vehicle investment. First of all, their vehicle companies are losing money. They've exhausted demand in China. They're going into other countries, not here because of all the tariffs we have in place. We also have rules about connected vehicles from China not being able to operate here.
Jamieson Greer
7. Why Canada Is Different
Ferro said the China tension has been legible for years but that Canada has surprised him, and asked Greer to explain why the relationship with the closest neighbor is where it is.
Greer started from the scale of the problem the tariffs were built to address: a trillion-dollar goods deficit, 70,000 factories closed, five million manufacturing jobs gone. The policy that followed in January was global rather than aimed at anyone, he said, and almost every country responded the same way — by asking to negotiate. Agreements followed with 15 to 20 of them.
The two exceptions
We had two countries retaliate against us. China, kind of expected, unfortunately. And Canada, they retaliated. Not just tariffs. They banned alcohol. They banned American companies from their procurement systems. This is pretty severe.
Jamieson Greer
The United States let that stand for about a year and a half, he said, and then answered it.
The size of the American response, in his own figures
So we've taken measures covering about 5% of Canadian goods. Not that big a deal, frankly. It accounts for about 0.06% of U.S. Consumption.
Jamieson Greer
Canada then asked for a deal. He said the offer included cutting steel and aluminum tariffs in half, cutting auto tariffs and removing certain tariffs on lumber, on top of the duty-free trade that already exists.
How the talks ended
They looked at the deal, agreed to elements of it. A few days later said, no, we can't do that. And we said, OK. They suspended the talks. They asked us for a deal. I wasn't knocking on their door saying you have to do a deal.
Jamieson Greer
His verdict on the alternative Canada is now exploring
And now they want to get together with the EU. And my view is zero growth plus zero growth still equals zero growth.
Jamieson Greer
Ferro suggested this looks like a spiral with no circuit breaker, given how well Prime Minister Carney's polling is doing while the fight continues. Greer agreed on the politics and disagreed on the economics.
The incentive he acknowledges
It's politically popular in Canada to be at odds with President Trump.
Jamieson Greer
Underneath the rhetoric, he said, the trade itself has barely moved: Canada still sends 70% of its goods to the United States, most of it duty-free, and the oil, gas, critical minerals and agricultural trade has never been disturbed in either direction. What has changed is on the American side, where he pointed to reshoring in steel and cars and new announcements including Stellantis.
Asked whether the president's own rhetoric about the 51st state, and the memes that went with it, has made his job harder, Greer said the public message is not a reading of the economic situation, and that the president and Carney speak frequently about NATO, Ukraine and trade.
Where he says the two governments actually differ
The difference is Prime Minister Carney and his team, they want to double down on globalization. You see it now. We don't.
Jamieson Greer
He listed what the American version has meant in practice: out of TPP, cautious on the WTO, trade agreements being redone. Then he made the comparison he wanted to end on.
Ten years of evidence, as he reads it
Our manufacturing jobs are finally going up. We have more supply chains coming here. Our growth is higher than Canada or the rest of the G7s.
Jamieson Greer
And the conclusion he draws from it
I like our model better.
Jamieson Greer
8. USMCA And Transshipment
Ferro asked what all of this does to the renegotiation of USMCA. Greer answered by contrast, and the contrast was Mexico.
Mexico has been pragmatic, he said, with a lot of quiet conversations and a lot of changes made, and he pointed to an announcement made that day.
The Mexican move he cited
Today they announced that they're going to have an aluminum monitoring system.
Jamieson Greer
What he wants out of any renegotiation is a protected North American market, and the risk he names is the same one Hordern raised earlier.
The two neighbours he is watching
We are worried about Canada. We are worried about Mexico.
Jamieson Greer
If China or Vietnam send goods into Canada or Mexico, have them worked on lightly and then shipped into the United States under USMCA, that is not what the agreement is for, he said. A partner that wants free trade with the world while the United States is trying to close its supply chains is, in his words, a hard match.
9. Fortress North America
Ferro raised the counterfactual: if the fight with Canada had not started, the country might have a Prime Minister Poilievre who was more open to these ideas, and he asked whether that ought to weigh on how the administration approaches other countries.
Greer's answer was that the phrase Canadians use for the alternative does not mean what Americans think it means.
What he says happened when the phrase was tested
Because when we called their bluff on it and said Fortress North America, their words, by the way, fine, let's do it.
Jamieson Greer
The American version of the deal is conditional, and the condition is the tariff wall. If the United States is keeping tariffs up against large surplus economies that do not run on market principles, he said, its partners have to do the same; a partner that wants freer trade with America while running lighter protection of its own makes that impossible to agree to.
The definition he is working from
Fortress North America means we protect our supply chains together. That's our view. I don't know what it means for them.
Jamieson Greer
Bonus Insights
The bubble, and the bank
Ferro thanked Greer for coming into the Bloomberg bubble and asked whether it beats the one at J.P. Morgan, where the previous day's talks were held. Greer would not compare them, but said the choice of building was deliberate: it was, in his words, pretty nice to flex to show American financial power. Hordern raised the Alexander Hamilton office there and Ferro the dueling pistols on display in it. Greer said he and the Treasury Secretary did not get the tour, because they were working.
The Conservative leader's position, as the hosts put it
Hordern noted that Pierre Poilievre, Canada's Conservative leader, had been on the programme talking about wanting free trade with the United States, and that many Canadians read the administration's approach as aggressive, pointing to the 51st state line and the Governor Trudeau posts.
Greer's bottom line is that the American trade position is no longer a negotiating posture aimed at changing anyone's behavior: it is a permanent structure of controls, and the test he applies to every partner is whether they will build the same wall against the same countries.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
BYD (The specific Chinese carmaker he was asked about. He says nothing in US law blocks it, and that losing money at home, exhausted Chinese demand, US tariffs and the connected-vehicle rules keep it out anyway)
Stellantis (Named among the new manufacturing announcements he credits to the global tariff policy)
US Customs and Border Protection (The agency that enforces against genuine transshipment, alongside the rules of origin being written with Mexico)
World Trade Organization (One of the institutions he says the United States is now cautious about, alongside pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership)
Listen to the full episode
If this was worth your time, send it to someone who has to have a view on this.
Get the latest market chatter as it happens: