Jan van Eck runs about $237 billion and says the single indicator he watches on artificial intelligence is that Nvidia's forward earnings are drifting slowly lower.
Most people arguing the AI trade is stretched then sell the sector. Van Eck's firm is a large Nvidia shareholder, sponsors the biggest semiconductor exchange-traded fund, and is still overweight semiconductors in its model portfolios.
"Nvidia forward earnings are drifting slowly lower. So I think the air is slowly coming out of the AI trade. That's my one indicator."
Van Eck's firm filed for the first Bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the United States in 2017, and he was wearing the hat of the fund it eventually launched while calling himself one of the biggest bond bears in the market.
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👤 Guest: Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, which managed about $237 billion at the end of June
🎙️ Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec, who anchor Bloomberg Businessweek Daily, live from the Future Proof conference in Huntington Beach, California
🧩 Other segments: Tony Davidow of Franklin Templeton, Jaime Magyera of BlackRock, and Scott Dennis of TCW
📰 Published: 15 September 2026 on the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily podcast
🟣 Apple Podcasts | 🔗 Episode page | ⏱️ length not available
Key Takeaways
His one AI indicator is that Nvidia's forward earnings are drifting slowly lower
He is still overweight semiconductors in the model portfolios, and a large Nvidia holder
The risk nobody prices is reflexivity: a market fall would take the economy down with it
Wealthy consumers do the spending, so the wealth effect runs in both directions
He calls himself one of the biggest bond bears and is buying the argument against himself
His question to advisors at the conference is which yield on the 10-year gets them in — 5%, 5.5%, 6%
Gold is a call on Asian growth, not on US inflation
He called the claim that $5,000 checks would not add to the deficit a flat-out silly statement
He was bearish Bitcoin into this year on the halving cycle and told people to buy in the second quarter
Higher taxes and lower government spending are coming within five years, in his account
1. The Two Concentrations
Stenovec asked every guest about risk, and van Eck named two, both of which come back to how narrow the American economy has become.
"I think our economy is actually concentrated in two areas, and one relates to this conference." The first is artificial intelligence, where technology is producing much of the market's earnings and its earnings growth — a point he treats as obvious and well discussed.
The second is the one he thinks is under-discussed. People talk about a K-shaped economy and usually worry about the leg going down; his concern is the leg going up.
"We are such a rich country." A big downturn in the market would pull the economy with it, because "I mean, because the wealthy consumers are the one that drive a lot of economic spending."
Stenovec tied that to the resilience nobody can explain: higher yields, higher energy prices and worries about a slowing economy, and equities only 3% off their highs.
2. One Foot Still on the Gas
Van Eck answered the resilience question with the policy mix rather than with positioning.
He works from the decade-long trends: "Well, I like to focus on the big 10-year macro trends, right?"
His description of the post-COVID settings: "I call it two feet on the gas and both on monetary, zero interest rates, throwing money at everything, and two feet on the gas for fiscal policy, government spending."
Where he puts policy now is neutral on rates and still stimulative on spending. He allowed that everyone has an opinion on the Federal Reserve, and said government spending is still adding to demand, which is what connects the position to debt and deficits.
The conclusion he draws from that: "So I think that's why the economy is at full employment." In his words, the economy is in reasonable shape.
3. The Bond Bear Turns
Massar said the deficit went from a permanent talking point early in her career to something nobody raised, and is now back at the center of the argument.
He opened by conceding her point and then declining to act on it: "I'm going to disappoint you, Carol, because you're right. I'm one of the biggest bond bears. I talk about it all the time."
The reason he is not trading his own view is timing. He knows timing markets is very hard, and has spent the conference asking people a single question: "And so what I've been asking people at this conference is, when do you buy the 10-year?" — at 5%, at 5.5%, at 6%.
The sentiment is what has moved him: "And when people are so negative about bonds, the contrarian in me makes me want to go buy bonds." He described himself as a little more neutral than his reputation.
The competition argument is the mechanical half of it. He said people at the conference were talking about long-dated municipal yields in high single digits, which will compete against equities and the rest of the portfolio.
The long horizon is unchanged, and it is where gold comes in: "10 years out, it's the new global currency."
4. Gold Is an Asia Trade
Massar asked where gold goes after two strong years, with investors looking less eager this year.
"Well, Bitcoin and gold hit all-time highs last year. And I think they have effectively bottomed and are heading towards all-time highs again."
He expects the move to be slow, because there is a lot of consolidation to work through. "If you look at a five-year chart of gold, it looks like it just went up, the Himalayan mountains." It has to reset even with the long-term bid behind it, and that could mean another year sideways.
The framing he says people get wrong is where the demand comes from. Gold is not driven by US inflation, in his account, because the United States no longer dominates the world.
"And global growth in Asia drives a lot of demand for gold."
That is also why he thinks it is struggling now: "And this war is really bad for Asian growth, right, India in particular."
5. A Flat-Out Silly Statement
Stenovec brought up Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's testimony on Capitol Hill that day, and the claim that $5,000 checks would not affect the deficit.
Van Eck's answer named the two men and the behavior: "You know, President Trump and Scott Bessent are risk takers. And I think they're taking a lot of risks here. They're toying with the market."
"I mean, that's a flat-out silly statement." He noted Bessent was present when Trump made the comment in Texas.
The cost he attaches to it is not fiscal but psychological: "Because confidence is everything. That's what prices long-term interest rates." His instruction to listeners is that the claim is not to be taken at face value.
His own forecast for how the arithmetic gets closed: "In the next five years, we're getting higher taxes." And lower government spending. He said Americans know this when he speaks to them at conferences.
He put a date on one piece of it, saying Social Security runs out of money in 32.
Massar and Stenovec both said the checks would add to the deficit, and Stenovec reminded listeners it was 15 September, the day quarterly estimated tax payments are due; Massar mentioned it is also her wedding anniversary.
6. Why He Wears HODL
The hat van Eck was wearing says HODL, which the hosts had flagged at the top of the segment.
He put the hat in the context of how the firm publishes: "Listen, VanEck's long-term macro view, the number one thing we think about is investors and alignment with investors." The quarterly outlooks can be bullish or bearish, and he says so plainly either way.
His own recent record on Bitcoin is a reversal: "I was bearish Bitcoin coming into this year because of the four-year halving cycle. I said time to buy in Q2."
"HODL is our Bitcoin ETF. We were the first company to file for a Bitcoin ETF in 2017." He is long-term bullish, and notes that even BlackRock is now putting Bitcoin into portfolios.
His read on the sentiment: "It's a forgotten asset a little bit now, right?" The crypto world has changed, and Massar's version was that a lot of crypto enthusiasts have moved on.
Where they moved to is the same trade as everything else. "The Bitcoin miners shifted heavily into compute," and VanEck's own portfolio managers moved into data centers.
On the rest of the sector he was dismissive and said so knowing it would annoy people: "But no, I think there were a bunch of shiny objects, Zcash, and people hate when I talk about stuff like that."
He also named the tail risk people raise about the asset itself: "There's concerns about quantum breaking Bitcoin, just like with other technologies."
7. The Fear-Mongering Call
Massar noted that VanEck sponsors SMH, the biggest semiconductor exchange-traded fund, up 50% year to date, and asked where he thinks the AI cycle sits.
His first answer was about his weekend rather than the cycle: "First of all, as an asset manager, I don't know what people think we do, but that 26-year-old ruined my weekend." He spent it on calls, blogs and social media.
He stated the interest before the opinion: "We have a lot of assets in SMH. We're a big Nvidia shareholder, obviously."
The verdict: "At the end of the day, I think that kind of fear-mongering is wrong." Massar added that she thinks it is dangerous.
He set Anthropic's chief executive on the other side of that line, calling Dario Amodei's blog post responsible. His summary of it: "And they're basically saying, for national security reasons, we can't hold back AI." With wars going on in the Middle East, neither China nor the United States is going to slow development.
The obligation he does accept is oversight: "But any responsible company needs to have protections in place. And so visibility, third-party monitors." He cited Elon Musk's suggestion that competitors act as a compliance check on one another, and called the resulting exchange a healthy industry dialogue.
On whether any of it is more than talk, his test is self-interest. Anthropic was on stage at the conference and is trying to partner with industry, and he said it is not in the company's interest to have one of its models go rogue even in a minor way. Massar's version: it would throw cold water on the entire industry.
The position has not changed. He said the firm is still overweight semiconductors in the model portfolios.
8. Nvidia's Forward Earnings
Given ten seconds for a last word on AI, van Eck used it for the only number he treats as a signal.
"Nvidia forward earnings are drifting slowly lower. So I think the air is slowly coming out of the AI trade. That's my one indicator."
Bonus Insights
Stenovec noted that the two recent examples he had in mind of vulnerabilities were AI-related rather than crypto-related, which van Eck agreed with before returning to Bitcoin.
Van Eck's summary of where the risk now sits in crypto is that it has already been taken out: he said the risks are all in the Bitcoin that started to rally, and that it looks juicy to him.
Massar's observation that a lot of crypto enthusiasts moved on to data centers turned out to describe VanEck's own portfolio managers as well.
Van Eck's bottom line is that the two big positions in the market are the same position — the AI trade and the wealth effect that keeps American consumption going — and that he is fading the consensus at both ends, buying bonds nobody wants while staying long the semiconductors he says are slowly deflating.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
VanEck (His firm, with about $237 billion under management at the end of June)
SMH (VanEck's semiconductor ETF, which Massar called the biggest of its kind and put up 50% year to date)
HODL (VanEck's Bitcoin ETF, and the hat he wore on air; the firm filed for the first US Bitcoin ETF in 2017)
Nvidia (A large VanEck holding, and the source of the forward-earnings figure he calls his one AI indicator)
Anthropic (Whose chief executive's blog post he called responsible, and which was on stage at the conference)
BlackRock (Cited as evidence Bitcoin has gone mainstream, because it is putting the asset into portfolios)
Zcash (His example of the shiny objects in crypto he does not rate)
Books & Resources Mentioned
VanEck's quarterly outlooks (Where the firm publishes its long-term macro view, bullish or bearish)
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