CNBC International Live Sep 18, 2026
With Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck
VanEck tracks the number of countries mining or holding Bitcoin at the sovereign level, and Matthew Sigel said the count is 25 and rises every year.
The usual objection to institutional ownership is that Bitcoin cannot be valued. Sigel values it the way a commodity is valued, off the cost of producing it.
"It's an intangible asset but two-thirds of US GDP is generated from intangible assets and we know we do have ways to value them."
Sigel runs digital assets research at VanEck, where he built the sovereign-holdings data set he cited and where NODE, a fund whose thesis is that electricity is the input Bitcoin and AI compete for, has outperformed Bitcoin by about 7,000 basis points since it launched.
The full segment is covered here so you can skip it.
Here are the 5 insights that matter.
Key Takeaways
25 countries now mine or hold Bitcoin at the sovereign level on VanEck's count, and the number goes up each year
Sigel values Bitcoin off the opportunity cost of the electricity used to produce it, the way a commodity trades against its cost of production
The lenders that failed last cycle were all unregulated, so the leverage was invisible; this cycle it sits on the CME and in public filings
Bitcoin volatility is down 50% from four years ago, which he reads as the absence of euphoria rather than the presence of it
Electricity is the link between Bitcoin and AI, because the same power makes either kind of token
1. 25 Sovereign Adopters
The host asked what it will take for institutions to treat digital money as an ordinary part of how markets trade, and noted that the conversation has been running for two decades.
The host asked what unlocks institutional buying
What is it going to actually take to see more institutional buy-in when it comes to these new forms of money and making sure that this is becoming something that is completely synonymous with the way that we trade today.
A host
And pointed out how long this has taken
We've been having this conversation about cryptocurrency for the last 20 years.
A host
Sigel's answer was that the adoption is already happening and that VanEck measures it. He added that another jurisdiction had begun piloting Bitcoin mining at the state level that same week.
VanEck counts the countries that hold it
We have a data set where we track the number of countries that are mining or holding Bitcoin at the sovereign level and that goes up every year.
Matthew Sigel
The count is 25
We're up to 25 different countries.
Matthew Sigel
2. Valuing Bitcoin on Power
The valuation method Sigel described treats Bitcoin as a produced good rather than a security. Electricity is the input, and the electricity has an alternative use, which gives the output a cost.
The fundamental value runs through electricity
There is a way to value the kind of the fundamental value. It's through the opportunity cost of the electricity that is used
Matthew Sigel
His comparison is to commodity markets, where a price below the cost of production for any length of time takes supply out and a floor forms.
Which makes it a commodity, in his framing
So Bitcoin is not that different.
Matthew Sigel
The objection that it is intangible he answered with the composition of the American economy.
Most of US output is intangible already
It's an intangible asset but two-thirds of US GDP is generated from intangible assets and we know we do have ways to value them.
Matthew Sigel
And the buyers he talks to are buying
So very volatile asset but our conversations with institutional clients whether it's advisers sovereign wealth funds they are buying.
Matthew Sigel
3. This Cycle's Leverage Shows
The host asked whether crypto exchanges should carry bank-style capital requirements, and whether another failure on the scale of FTX is possible.
The host asked about capital rules and another FTX
Should crypto exchanges be regulated along the same lines as the banks whether it's capital requirements capital buffers and just another question do you fear that we could see another blow up along the lines of FTX?
A host
Sigel's first correction was factual: the exchanges are already regulated in the United States.
The exchanges are regulated here
Crypto exchanges are regulated in the US and one of the notable differences this cycle versus last cycle.
Matthew Sigel
Leverage is a permanent feature of the asset
It's always been an asset class that attracts leverage, retail leverage.
Matthew Sigel
The difference he drew is not the amount of leverage but where it sits. The lenders and exchanges that went under in the last cycle were outside the regulated system.
Last cycle the borrowing could not be seen
But last cycle, the companies that went bankrupt, whether it's Genesis or FTX, BlockFi, Celsius, they were all unregulated. The leverage was invisible.
Matthew Sigel
This time it is on an exchange with a tape
This cycle the leverage is very clearly visible whether it's in the CME on the futures market
Matthew Sigel
The other place he sees it is in public filings, through MicroStrategy's convertible debt and preferred securities sold into the regulated American stock market.
He does not read it as systemic
Does it present any kind of systemic risk? I don't think so.
Matthew Sigel
What he watches instead is the price of downside protection against upside protection, which is a positioning measure rather than a credit one.
The bigger risk is what hedging costs
The bigger risk is people paying up for puts versus calls.
Matthew Sigel
And he sees no euphoria in the positioning
We're not noticing a lot of euphoria and kind of undue leverage in the Bitcoin market.
Matthew Sigel
Which he ties to halved volatility
I think it's a major difference from last cycle and it's a reason why Bitcoin volatility is down by 50% compared to four years ago.
Matthew Sigel
4. Power Links Bitcoin and AI
The host connected the two subjects of the hour: AI makes hacking easier, and digital assets depend on cryptography holding.
The host raised AI-enhanced hacking
Lots of concern about enhanced hacking capabilities on the part of AI.
A host
And asked whether that threatens crypto
Any worries about AI enhanced capability causing some threat to the crypto universe?
A host
Sigel's answer went to the physical layer first. The largest overlap between Bitcoin and AI, on his account, is the electricity value chain, which is the thesis behind NODE and the reason he says the fund has beaten Bitcoin by about 7,000 basis points since launch.
The same power makes either kind of token
You can use that electricity to manufacture Bitcoin tokens or you can use it to manufacture AI tokens.
Matthew Sigel
So the two are linked on the input side
So there is synergy there.
Matthew Sigel
5. The Quantum Upgrade Path
On quantum computing specifically, Sigel granted the risk rather than dismissing it.
He calls quantum a real risk
Yes, it's a risk.
Matthew Sigel
It shows up in how crypto trades against software
I think that's why cryptos have traded alongside software in the kind of semi to software ratio.
Matthew Sigel
His reassurance is about the people rather than the technology. The scope of the problem is understood and there is a plan.
The Bitcoin community has sized the problem
But the community, especially the Bitcoin community, has recognized the scope of the issue.
Matthew Sigel
And there is a framework for the upgrade
There's a lot of talent that's now come together with a framework of how to upgrade the system.
Matthew Sigel
The cost of that structure is speed. Nobody can order the change through.
No one can tell the developers to ship
The upgrades don't happen as fast because there's no CEO who can tell the devs, hey, do it now, right?
Matthew Sigel
Governance makes it slower and messier
There's a governance process. It takes more time. It's a little bit messier.
Matthew Sigel
But the routes exist
But there are technological paths for quantum resistance.
Matthew Sigel
Bonus Insights
A price below production cost removes supply
Sigel's floor argument is the standard commodity one applied to Bitcoin: when a commodity trades under its cost of production for any meaningful length of time, producers stop producing, supply leaves the market and a floor tends to form. The cost of production for Bitcoin is the electricity.
Sigel's bottom line is that the borrowing which broke the last cycle now sits in places anyone can see, and that the thing to watch in Bitcoin is the electricity market it shares with AI.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
VanEck (Sigel's firm; it keeps the sovereign Bitcoin holdings data set and runs NODE, whose electricity thesis he credits for about 7,000 basis points of outperformance against Bitcoin)
CME Group (The futures market where Sigel says this cycle's crypto leverage is visible rather than hidden)
MicroStrategy (Issuing convertible debt and preferred securities into the regulated US stock market, which Sigel counts as leverage anyone can measure)
Genesis, FTX, BlockFi and Celsius (The four failures of the last cycle, which Sigel says were all outside the regulated system, so the leverage could not be seen in advance)
Watch the full episode:
More Matthew Sigel interviews and podcast appearances
If this was worth your time, send it to someone closer to the industry than you are.
Get the latest market chatter as it happens: