Zacks Market Edge Sep 18, 2026 30m 19m saved
Zacks Market Edge has asked the recession question every year for 11 years. It has been right once, in the two months of the pandemic shutdown.
A retrospective usually lists the wins. This one put the five stocks from the show's 300th episode on a five-year chart and left the two losers on the screen: PayPal down 79% and Block down 66%.
"We've covered the recession question every year, multiple times a year, for all 11 years on this podcast, but it's only happened one time, and it was only because of the pandemic."
The show is produced by Zacks Investment Research in Chicago and presented by one of the firm's strategists, who also runs the Zacks Value Investor portfolio and buys the names discussed on air. This 500th episode was a solo one, spent working through old calls and then re-examining the stocks behind them.
The full episode is covered here so you can skip it. 30 minutes of audio, 11 minutes of reading.
Here are the 11 lessons that matter.
Key Takeaways
Eleven years of asking about recession produced one recession, the two-month shutdown of 2020
Exxon Mobil is being bought for the refining margin, not the barrel, with 21 refineries and a record crack spread
JPMorgan trades at 2.63 times book, against a rule of thumb that says buy at one and sell at two
Nvidia's run — 130% earnings growth on 114% revenue growth in fiscal 2025 — is called a one-off that will not be repeated
Over five years Nvidia is up 918%, Exxon 172% and JPMorgan 102%, with Exxon beating the bank
PayPal is down 79% and Block 66% over the same five years, which is the show's argument for diversification
Super Micro is down 20% over a year on a forward multiple of 8 while earnings estimates rise
Vertiv, from the same 2024 list, is up 71% over the last year
Sterling Infrastructure has fallen to 23 times earnings from a peak, against the 17 times it was bought at in 2023
1. 500 Episodes in 11 Years
The show began around 13 October 2015, as far as the host could establish, and reached 500 episodes in September 2026 with the eleventh anniversary a few weeks away.
The anniversary episode it was built from
I did manage to find some of our other anniversary episodes, and I had Kevin Cook on the 300th episode podcast, which was in 2022
The host
That episode ran on 26 January 2022 and carried five stocks, which is what this one went back to check.
2. The Recession Never Came
Recession is the question the show has returned to most often, with Zacks strategist John Blank, and the record of it is close to empty.
Eleven years, one recession
We've covered the recession question every year, multiple times a year, for all 11 years on this podcast, but it's only happened one time, and it was only because of the pandemic.
The host
The US recession from February to April 2020 was the shortest in the country's history, and because it was caused by a government shutdown rather than by the cycle, the show does not count it as a call it made. Another recession episode ran recently and the next is scheduled for the end of the year, looking at 2027.
Where the economy sits now
But right now the economy is doing pretty well — we actually have some decent employment growth, so we're not looking real recessiony right here.
The host
3. Oil, From Bear to Bull
The podcast launched into an oil bear market that started around 2014, after the bull market that ran through the financial crisis, and oil has been a recurring subject ever since.
The question the whole 11 years has been building to
We've been waiting for a period when it went back into the bull — is this that period?
The host
Sheraz Mian was the guest on oil in the show's first weeks. The coverage since has run through crude going negative in the pandemic, the Ukraine war, and now the Iran war in 2026.
4. The AI List From 2024
Nvidia was discussed on the 300th episode in January 2022, about a year before the artificial intelligence trade broke out, and the show asked then whether to buy it on that year's weakness.
The earliest AI list it could find
But the very first episode I could find — courtesy of AI itself — was on September 20th, 2024, this is just based on the headline, which was "5 Hidden Gem AI Stocks to Buy Now,"
The host
The five were Oracle, Modine Manufacturing, Sterling Infrastructure, Vertiv and Super Micro. Most of them worked. Super Micro is the one that did not, and it comes back later in the episode.
5. Exxon's Crack Spread Trade
Exxon Mobil was recently added to the Zacks Value Investor portfolio, and the reason given was refining rather than production.
The refining margin is the trade
So that spread is huge right now, and they're making record amounts off of that.
The host
When the Iran war started the preference was for producers only. It has since moved to the integrated companies, which own the refineries — 21 of them at Exxon — plus the chemicals business and the service stations. The shares yield 2.5%.
Why the stock has not followed the barrel
Shares have not recovered back to the highs, as you can see
The host
West Texas Intermediate is back over $100 and Brent is approaching $110, which with wide crack spreads should make third-quarter earnings look good. The explanation offered for the share price is that the market does not believe the strength holds, having been burned before. Some 2026 estimates were cut when crude fell back under $80, though one has moved up in the last seven days. The 2027 number is down 1.3%, which the show treats as too early to mean anything.
The call on the stock
But I do consider this a buying opportunity here for Exxon
The host
The forward price-to-earnings multiple is 13.8 with a price-earnings-to-growth ratio around one, which the show noted is what cheap looks like in a commodity bull market, because the earnings are surging faster than the stock.
6. JPMorgan Is Not Cheap
The large banks were the next subject, on the grounds that they never recovered from the financial crisis and may finally have done so, with JPMorgan Chase breaking out.
The measure to use on a bank
For banks, you should be looking at the price-to-book ratio — bank analysts look at the price-to-book, and they've always said, you buy at a one, you sell at a two — that means it's fully valued.
The host
Where JPMorgan sits against that
We're at 2.63 now on JPMorgan, so it's pretty pricey here.
The host
Earnings growth of 22.7% is expected for 2026 and 4% for 2027, with the dividend yielding 1.7%. The bank took no real damage in the 2023 regional banking crisis and bought some of the failing regionals.
Where the bargains are instead
There are plenty of other banks, especially the regionals and the communities, who are even under one still, so I would look elsewhere for banking bargains.
The host
The general rule behind picking JPMorgan at all
That's something we've learned over the years on the podcast, too — you don't have to get fancy, you don't have to buy some random unknown small cap
The host
John Blank's version of that, quoted on air, is that you do not have to be a genius to get into a sector: if an industry is turning, the large companies with history and solid fundamentals will be at the front of it.
7. Nvidia's Growth Streak
Nvidia was a gaming company when the show started covering it. The numbers it has posted since are the ones the host does not expect to see again.
The claim about the growth rate
I've said many times, we will never see this again with any company — this kind of earnings and sales growth — and not just in one year, but continuing year after year after year.
The host
Fiscal 2025 brought 130% earnings growth on 114% revenue growth. Fiscal 2026 brought 65% revenue growth and 59% earnings growth. The current year is expected to produce 88% revenue growth and 93% earnings growth. The market capitalization is $5 trillion and the stock is near its highs, up in 2026 but without the gains of the previous years.
The limit the show puts on it
Of course it will at some point — it will not be able to continue at this.
The host
8. Five Years, Three Winners
The three names from the 300th episode that worked were put on a five-year interactive chart, which is the closest available window to the four years since.
Nvidia over five years
So Nvidia up 918% in the five years
The host
Exxon through what was called a bear market
Exxon still up 172% in that period, even during what is considered to be a bear market for oil
The host
Neither figure includes dividends.
And the bank, which came third
JPMorgan up 102% in the last five years, but that does include the banking crisis time period, so I'm kind of surprised
The host
Exxon beating JPMorgan over the period was the result the show did not expect.
9. PayPal and Block Went Wrong
The other two names from January 2022 were the pandemic payment stocks, and both were added to the same chart.
What five years did to them
PayPal, over the five-year period, is now down 79%. Block is down 66%.
The host
Both were hot while people bought things from home, and both fell in 2022 when the Federal Reserve raised rates and the payment companies repriced.
The conclusion drawn from it
So, those have gone the other way, which just goes to tell you why you should have a diverse portfolio
The host
Block now trades under the ticker XYZ.
10. Super Micro, Again
Of the five 2024 artificial intelligence names, Super Micro is the one with the problems, and the show went back through its numbers rather than leaving it on the list.
The gap between the two AI names
So, Super Micro is still down 20% over the last year, and Nvidia is up 20%, so Nvidia still kind of the place to be on the AI names.
The host
Vertiv, which makes the racks and cooling inside the data center and is held in the same Value Investor portfolio, is up 71% over the last year despite being off its own highs. The difference, in the show's account, is the work of reading the fundamentals and listening to the earnings calls.
What the fundamentals say now
So all this is cheap, but nobody's trusting it, as you can see
The host
Fiscal 2026 earnings rose 76.2%, with 22% expected this year and 18% next, on a forward multiple of eight and a price-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.6. Seven estimates have gone up for this year and two for next, and none has been cut; the current-year number is 4.43, against 3.09 sixty days ago, after four consecutive earnings beats.
Which brings it back onto the list
So maybe this is a hidden gem again, and nobody's really talking about it.
The host
It carries a Zacks number-one strong buy rating and a B for value, with an F for growth, a C for momentum and a D overall on the combined score.
11. Sterling Comes Back Down
The last of the 2024 names is Sterling Infrastructure, down at least 50% from its high, which puts its multiple back near where the show first bought it.
The multiple is almost back to the entry price
When I bought it in 2023 in the Zacks Value Investor, it was trading at about 17 times, so we're getting down there again, we're getting cheaper again, and earnings expected to be up 84% still for this year.
The host
It trades at 23 times now. The suggestion was to keep names like it on a watch list and consider averaging into them over time.
Bonus Insights
The episode was recorded in a paper crown, after a search for better headgear failed, with a party favor that turned out to make no noise.
On what the next episodes will cover
I am going to have stocks under 10 bucks on soon — I know everybody loves those, what are the cheap stocks.
The host
The reasoning is that a listener who wants to own a hundred shares of something cannot get there quickly in a stock trading at $1,000, so the cheap names with good fundamentals and a good Zacks Rank are worth a segment of their own. Requests for coverage come in through the comments on the show's video, and more guests are booked for the autumn.
The bottom line from 500 episodes is that the recession call almost never pays, that the biggest winner of the period was a stock the show was already covering for its gaming business, and that the two names it got wrong are the argument for owning more than five things.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
Exxon Mobil (Just added to the Zacks Value Investor portfolio for its 21 refineries and the record crack spread, on 13.8 times forward earnings and a 2.5% yield)
JPMorgan Chase (Near all-time highs at 2.63 times book, with 22.7% earnings growth expected in 2026 and 4% in 2027)
Nvidia ($5T market cap after growth the show says will not be repeated: 130% earnings growth on 114% revenue growth in fiscal 2025)
Super Micro (Down 20% over a year on 8 times forward earnings, with seven estimates raised and none cut — the possible hidden gem again)
Vertiv (Data-center racks and cooling, held in the same portfolio, up 71% over the last year)
Sterling Infrastructure (Down at least 50% from its high to 23 times earnings, against the 17 times it was bought at in 2023)
PayPal and Block (The two pandemic payment names from the 300th episode, down 79% and 66% over five years; Block now trades as XYZ)
Oracle and Modine Manufacturing (The other two names on the September 2024 list of hidden-gem AI stocks)
Zacks Investment Research (Publisher of the show, the Value Investor portfolio and the rank behind the buy ratings quoted)
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