The David Lin Report Sep 19, 2026 26m 11m saved
With Ron Paul, former US Congressman and host of the Ron Paul Liberty Report
The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5% the day before this interview, the highest since 2007. Oil was above $100 a barrel for both WTI and Brent, American diesel was at a record, and the Federal Reserve had just raised rates for the first time in three years. All four numbers came from the host's opening question.
Asked which of them worried him most, Ron Paul named none of them. He said the thing to watch is a government that borrows in the world's reserve currency and a central bank that creates the money in secret, and that the rest of the list follows from those two facts.
"So inflation is here to stay, and until it collapses — and what I fear now is maybe that collapse is not too far off."
Ron Paul, former US Congressman and host of the Ron Paul Liberty Report, on The David Lin Report, spent his years in Congress arguing that sound money and limited government are one subject rather than two, and he says he told his colleagues then exactly what they should do and they did not do it.
The full interview is covered here so you can skip it. 26 minutes of audio, 11 minutes of reading.
Here are the 12 arguments that matter.
Key Takeaways
A real spending cut is no longer possible, he says, because the size of the debt makes the correction itself politically unsurvivable
He puts the consequence as "a revolution, a riot, civil war"
The problem is not prices, it is the printing — he says raising rates a quarter point treats a symptom nobody will name
Corporatism, not capitalism, is what he blames for the turn toward socialism, and he says both parties are agreeing to call it capitalism
He will not forecast the midterms and says the next election is an educational question rather than a political one
"You shouldn't ever trust the Fed" — and the reason the system has held this long, on his account, is accumulated wealth that has not run out yet
On artificial intelligence he says he fears government regulation more than human extinction, and calls the extinction claim scare tactics
When the dollar is dumped, his expectation is gold and silver up, markets down, and interest rates "way high"
He said he has been worrying about it for more than a couple of years
1. Liberty Before Prices
The host opened with the week's numbers: the Fed's first rate rise in three years, a 10-year yield at 5%, oil over $100 for both benchmarks, record diesel, and no visible end to the Iran war. He asked what concerned him most as an American, and Paul answered with none of them.
He says every one of those numbers is downstream of the monetary system
If you're talking about individual liberty, you want the government to do the least amount of meddling around with people's personal habits and personal monetary system.
Ron Paul
He tied the size of the US government directly to the dollar's position as the currency other countries hold.
Reserve-currency status is what paid for the government he objects to
We wouldn't have the type of government we have now in the United States if we had not been able to control the reserve currency of the world and fudge the system, borrow the money, and default on our debt, and that is where the problem is.
Ron Paul
2. Why Iran Wants the Bomb
The host put the case for the war to him in the words of its supporters, including members of the Trump administration: that fighting Iran now, before it acquires nuclear weapons, makes Americans safer and ultimately more free. Paul rejected the premise and inverted it.
He argues the policy is the incentive
No — it makes us more dangerous, because I imagine one of the greatest motivations for Iran right now to have a nuclear weapon is that they've been surrounded by dozens of nuclear bombs and they have no way to even pretend they have a defense.
Ron Paul
He noted that a treaty aimed at the same goal was cancelled by Trump a couple of years ago, and said the stated reason for being in the region has already failed its own test: if Iran has been stopped from acquiring weapons, he asked, why are American forces still there.
He reads the justification as a scare campaign with a precedent
The excuse is something to scare the people, and they certainly did that after 9/11.
Ron Paul
His example was the claim that Saddam Hussein was going to bomb New York City with a nuclear weapon, which he said worked on the public exactly as intended.
3. Nobody Declares War Now
Asked whether he saw an off-ramp or another Iraq, Paul said the wars differ in detail and not in principle, and located the common feature in Congress rather than in any particular adversary.
His test is procedural: no declaration, no debate, no limit
Just think, since World War II we never even bothered declaring war, and the founders were very explicit — you have to declare war, the people have to have a debate — and even though there were shortcomings in the first and second world war, at least they followed that rule
Ron Paul
He added that a declared war got stopped after a year or two, and that the undeclared ones do not end because nobody has to say why they started. The interest he named is money: special interests and the military-industrial complex, whose goal he described as keeping the agitation going and building up the excuses.
4. Oil Is a Government Price
The host said oil had risen and then fallen after 9/11, and that nothing had frightened people about oil on this scale since the late 1970s and early 1980s. He asked what the economy looks like next year without an immediate de-escalation. Paul said the problem is not geology.
Supply is not the constraint, on his account — policy is
If you're looking at the price and distribution, it isn't that we lack ability, it isn't that there's a lack of oil. There is just too much government intervention, illegally, and interfering.
Ron Paul
He said the president is annoyed by the price, and that the tool to prevent it was never troop levels.
The prevention he names is not starting the war
The president's very annoyed by all that, but he could have prevented it — not by sending more troops, he could have prevented it by not starting this war up again.
Ron Paul
5. Inflation Is Here to Stay
Asked where inflation goes next year, Paul began by refusing the ordinary definition. He said most people use the word for any price that rises, including one pushed up by a hurricane, and that this is not what he means by it.
Ron Paul on inflation: the word now describes the symptom, not the cause
If you're talking about the specifics of inflation, where you have a central bank in secrecy just printing money for all the special groups, that's going to continue. It's going to get worse.
Ron Paul
He treated the day's rate rise as an illustration of the confusion rather than a response to it.
He calls the rate-rise response a gimmick built on a mistaken diagnosis
Today we had this magnificent thing happen: there's signs of inflation coming, so we're going to raise interest rates a little bit, cause the economy to slow up, and maybe there won't be so much price.
Ron Paul
The reason nobody discusses the money supply, he said, is that doing so would require an admission.
Nobody names the cause because naming it is a confession
The whole thing is crazy, because it's the printing of money, and nobody talks about it, because the politicians would have to admit they've been completely wrong.
Ron Paul
6. No One Will Cut Spending
The host cited a projection as the show's own framing for the question.
The host's setup: a Congressional Budget Office projection he attributed on air
Dr. Paul, since you left the government, the debt just continued to rise, the deficit widened, and the Congressional Budget Office themselves are projecting that the debt to GDP will exceed the World War II historic high by 2032.
David Lin
He asked what case Paul would make for immediate spending cuts if he were back in Congress. Paul's answer was that he would make the case and it would not matter.
He says the correct policy is now unavailable
I would tell them that that is what we should do, but it's impossible. It's not going to happen.
Ron Paul
The obstacle he named is not arithmetic but the reaction to the arithmetic.
The cut itself is what he expects to trigger the crisis
That would cause a revolution, a riot, civil war, because there's no turning back when you reach this type of debt and the momentum behind this debt and spending and fiat money and wars.
Ron Paul
He said the mistakes eventually have to be liquidated for a fresh start, that liquidation is never permitted, and that what happens instead is more debt. His evidence that Congress will not act is what he says Congress does to the members who try.
His example is Thomas Massie
One of the best congressmen there, and they'll spend millions and millions of dollars just to get rid of him.
Ron Paul
The plan exists on paper, in his telling, and that is where it stays.
He says the arithmetic is easy and the politics is not
It could be done — I could write down on paper how much you have to cut every year for 10 years and we'd have a balanced budget. They're not going to do it.
Ron Paul
7. Corporatism, Not Capitalism
Asked why socialism has gained ground in America since he left Congress, Paul said the complaint behind it is legitimate and the label attached to it is wrong. He said the young people moving left point at too many wars, too much debt and too much lying, and that all of those are real.
He accepts the grievance and rejects the diagnosis
But yes, our form of capitalism did it — it's the corporatism that did it. It's welfareism to the rich and the banks and the business people. That's what did it.
Ron Paul
Republicans saying "we have to save capitalism" make the problem worse, on his account, because they concede that what exists now is capitalism. He said he does not like the word himself and would rather talk about free markets and sound money.
His claim is that both parties now agree on the wrong culprit
Capitalism didn't cause these problems. It was corporatism, government business socialism, that caused our problems.
Ron Paul
He called the substitution a sneaky trick and one of the biggest fraud stunts ever, and said corporatism is a lead into fascism rather than a version of free enterprise.
8. The Election Won't Fix It
The host asked whether Republicans have any chance of holding the Senate at the midterms. Paul gave the answer and then withdrew the basis for it.
He will not forecast, and says nobody else can either
I would say that they have a very good chance, because I don't think anybody knows. I don't predict the future.
Ron Paul
What the election settles, he said, is the story people tell about why things went wrong. If Democrats take both chambers, the conclusion drawn will be that capitalism failed, and he called that outcome horrible if it lasts. Constitutionalists winning seats would be the opposite.
He frames the contest as education rather than politics
I think it's an educational issue, not a political issue that the next election is going to do much about.
Ron Paul
9. Never Trust the Fed
The host said the Federal Reserve chair had stated in testimony that inflation has run above the Fed's target for 5 years, and asked why the public should trust the institution to fix something it has not fixed. Paul answered the question more broadly than it was asked.
His answer is the institution, not its record
You shouldn't ever trust the Fed. They shouldn't even exist, because in secret what they can do is inflate, print the money as necessary.
Ron Paul
He then addressed what he called the one difficult thing to explain: how the United States has done as well as it has while carrying this much debt and fighting this many wars. His answer was accumulated wealth.
The system has held because there is still wealth left to consume
We still have a lot of wealth that we can consume before we have the crack-up boom. But it is coming, and it's unpredictable when it's going to come.
Ron Paul
The point at which it arrives, he said, is when people give up on the system.
He describes the present state as fragile rather than stable
It's a system that is very, very fragile right now, and that's what we better be aware of.
Ron Paul
10. Let the Market Handle AI
The host raised a CNN article headlined "Will AI really kill everyone?", noted that AI data-center construction has been a large driver of GDP growth over the past year and a half, and said an Anthropic employee had announced he was leaving the company because the work was getting too dangerous. He framed extinction as a low-probability event rather than a certainty and asked how Paul would regulate the industry from Congress.
He starts from the market rather than from a rule
I'd look to the market to do the regulating, and there must be ways to do this.
Ron Paul
He said he does not know the technology well and accepts that it does beneficial things, drawing a parallel with crypto, which he endorses without claiming to fully understand it. His ranking of the risks was explicit.
He ranks the government ahead of extinction as the thing to fear
I think the danger is, I would fear the government more than I would fear that somebody's going to all of a sudden have a catastrophe and wipe out the human race. That's scare tactics. But I'm sure it's very risky.
Ron Paul
He has no confidence that Congress knows how to regulate a technology, he said, and pointed at crypto policy as the evidence. What he would keep open is the ability of people to work the rules out themselves.
His alternative is self-regulation, which he says already happens
But personal input and self-regulation has happened in many, many instances, and it can happen.
Ron Paul
11. When Dollars Are Dumped
Asked what happens to bond yields and to gold if the collapse he describes arrives, Paul started with the mechanism.
The mechanism he names is refusal to hold the currency
The principle of the crack-up boom is that people don't want to hold dollars anymore.
Ron Paul
He said the hints are already visible, and reached for the 1970s for the precedent.
He compares today's central-bank behavior to the run-up to Bretton Woods ending
Foreigners once again — just like back in the 70s they were dumping dollars and brought on the collapse of Bretton Woods — right now central banks are not holding as many dollars as they used to.
Ron Paul
On what he would own, he said he had been worrying about this for more than a couple of years and that when the time came he would like to own some silver and gold. On bonds he was openly unsure, and said so before giving a direction.
His guess on rates is up, with the hedge attached
My guess would be, if you didn't have the government, that when this busts, usually interest rates go way high.
Ron Paul
12. Gold Up, Markets Down
The host closed by reminding him of a call that worked, and adding a line from the Treasury Secretary.
The host's framing: gold at 5,000 and a Treasury Secretary's ranking
You were right about gold, by the way — you told me on the show last year you expect gold to go up. It hit 5,000. Scott Bessent this week said that the 10-year government bond is the most important asset on earth.
David Lin
Asked whether a 10-year yield at 5% worried him, Paul said he watches the bond market for one signal in particular.
What he watches for is the moment holders stop holding
I look at it to find out where the shift is going, because eventually they're going to give up on the bonds.
Ron Paul
A quarter-point move, and the argument over whether another quarter point comes next year, he treated as beside the point given the size of the problem. He said the same of the response after 2008.
He dismisses the post-2008 rate policy as an evasion
And then what did they do with bonds after '08? They had zero rates, and that's all just Mickey Mouse stuff, that doesn't solve any problem.
Ron Paul
His closing answer named three consequences, and the third was not a market one.
His expectation, hedged, is higher metals, lower markets and unrest
So I don't know exactly what will happen, but I think gold and silver goes up, markets are going to go down, and the worst of all is that, more likely, because the wealth will not be distributed fairly, there'll be a lot more violence in the streets, and we'll have to worry about all those issues that we talked about, and we'll worry about our civil liberties.
Ron Paul
Bonus Insights
He calls the price of money the most heavily controlled price there is
So it depends on how fast that comes, but if it comes real fast, I think the interest rate — the government wants to tell us what interest rates are, but the most important price in the whole world ever is the price of money, and that's the one that's most regulated.
Ron Paul
His objection to crypto policy is the proposal to fund a reserve by selling gold
The people who wanted to regulate crypto, they wanted to sell the gold, take the profits and buy crypto for a reserve, I guess, for our money.
Ron Paul
He has heard "most important election ever" before and thinks this one has a claim to it
Every time we had an election, people would say this is the most important election ever. I'm beginning to think that this one might be pretty darn important, because it's this definition of who caused our problems.
Ron Paul
He also said the Marxists are delighted because their goal is chaos and chaos is what they are going to get, pointing at the election of a socialist mayor as the sign of it.
Ron Paul's bottom line is that the debt has passed the point where it can be dealt with deliberately, so what is left is the timing of the break and the argument over what replaces the system afterward.
Products, Companies & Tools Mentioned
Federal Reserve (The institution he says should not exist; the host cited its chair's testimony that inflation has run above target for 5 years, and its first rate rise in three years framed the whole interview)
Congressional Budget Office (The host attributed to it a projection that debt to GDP will exceed the World War II high by 2032, which set up the spending-cut question)
Anthropic (The host said one of its employees announced he was leaving because the work was getting too dangerous)
CNN (The outlet whose AI-extinction article the host put to him)
Books & Resources Mentioned
Will AI really kill everyone? How, exactly? – CNN (The article the host held up as the doomsday framing Paul was asked to respond to)
Ron Paul Liberty Report (The daily show he hosts, which the host used to introduce him)
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