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30-year Treasury

70% of S&P 500 stocks are now in a downtrend, Big Picture Trading finds
8 charts: the record short position nobody will take the other side of, why he calls the global hawkish turn a policy error, and the level where he says…
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BNP Paribas strategist: 5% is not the ceiling on the 10-year, and 3 hikes won't do it
6 predictions: Why the economy has stopped responding to rates, what the Fed has to prove to the bond market, and the late-1990s hiking cycle he…
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Standard Chartered's allocation head: 5% is capital scarcity, not a fiscal story
5 calls: Why AI capital spending of $260B in 2024 becomes $1.2T by 2027, where on the bond curve he still wants to be, and the case for gold as…
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BofA's strategists: over 80% of clients say Warsh's communications are ineffective
13 calls: why the desk is sticking at 75bps against a market pricing 90, what the Taylor rule says the funds rate should be today, and why the buyback…
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Matt Klein: an AI productivity boom would push interest rates up, not down
15 takeaways: Why underlying US productivity growth has been zero for 18 months, where the AI capex money actually flows, and China's trade surplus…
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Ira Jersey: Treasury needs $10B buybacks, not $6B, to pull long-term yields down
6 calls: Why the 10-year auction graded A+ two hours after the buyback disappointed, what actually stops people buying houses, and why the yen…
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Brij Khurana: the market is forcing Warsh to raise rates whether he wants to or not
4 takeaways: The corporate borrowing wave he says is lifting every yield at once, why he calls the coming hikes insurance, and the 30-year that has…
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RBC's Jason Daw: Canada's biggest shock was population, not tariffs - 3% to 0%
10 takeaways: Why a core CPI print rounding to 0.3 puts a September Fed hike in play, what Bessent can still do to 30-year yields, and how long Europe's…
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Robert Armstrong: everyone saw Bessent's buybacks as propping up bond prices
5 takeaways: Why the Treasury's off-schedule buying backfired, what changed in Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, and why the new Fed chair has little to fear…
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Matthew Piepenburg: the Nasdaq is up 95% over 5 yrs and down 23% measured in gold
10 takeaways: why he says freezing Russia's reserves in 2022 broke the dollar's franchise, what revaluing US gold above $42/oz would fund, and where he…
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Brandon Clark: the risk in cash is that money markets reprice first when the Fed cuts
14 takeaways: Why investors count income in nominal dollars, what a call spread does that a covered call does not, and how return of capital stopped…
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Scott Bessent: the blockade will bring Iran to the table, and he is not trying to move bond yields | Squawk on the Street
The Treasury secretary on why he says the US bond market is the world's best performer, what he told Stanley Druckenmiller, the signal behind the yen…
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