Bloomberg Surveillance

"3% is the number that stabilizes debt": France's finance minister on 2029

12 calls: Why UBS still sees 25% EPS growth and buys the pullback, why Bank of America has October circled for another hike, and what France is cutting…

18 hrs ago • The Scuttlebutt

"Today, it's 80% fixed": BofA on why a 5% 10-year does not break stocks

13 calls: Why ECRI's co-founder says the Fed is not one and done, where Schwab thinks Treasury yields settle, and what a former State Department…

Sep 18 • The Scuttlebutt

6% and 7% on the 10-year is now off the table, Evercore's strategist finds

11 calls: Evercore on why the bond market lost both of its extremes, the former New York Fed president on immaculate disinflation and diesel reaching…

Sep 18 • The Scuttlebutt

"The only guarantee we can get is that they are not safe": UC Berkeley professor on AI

5 insights: Why he says the large language model was the wrong technology path, what Boeing's bypass of safety certification cost, and the behavioral…

Sep 17 • The Scuttlebutt

The largest US capital-spending boom in 150 yrs is lifting real rates, HB Wealth finds

7 arguments: Why neither 25bps nor 75bps of hikes touches her earnings outlook, where higher oil actually bites first, and the rotation inside…

Sep 17 • The Scuttlebutt

KPMG chief economist: even after the hike, rates are only at neutral

11 arguments: Why the 2% target slid to 2029, the former Fed vice chair who says PCE overstates inflation, and what a 25bp move does to an AI capex boom

Sep 17 • The Scuttlebutt

A credibility hike the data didn't require — Wolfe Research's chief economist

10 calls: Why core PCE at 0.23% would have allowed a hold, the neutral-rate dot that moved to 3.2%, and the 10-year real yield now sitting at an 18-year…

Sep 17 • The Scuttlebutt

Warsh's own inflation gauge is 40bps lower than a year ago, says Rosenberg Research

6 numbers: Why he puts the Treasury selloff on Fed expectations rather than oil, the 30 September revision he says nobody is pricing, and the three…

Sep 17 • The Scuttlebutt

Seaport analyst: Nvidia is sold out for this year and probably next

4 insights: Why a sold-out order book is his bear case rather than his bull case, what he thinks AI regulation will actually look like, and why each…

Sep 17 • The Scuttlebutt

BNY Wealth CIO: the hawks have to explain why inflation is not higher

8 calls: Why she raised next year's S&P 500 earnings to about $430 without moving her price target, why tech at 21 times forward is not 1999, and the…

Sep 17 • The Scuttlebutt

150bps of repricing explains the whole 10-year move, Tradition's macro advisor finds

6 arguments: Why 7 months of repricing did it, why he says the term premium never rose, where he puts the 10-year a year out, and why a 3% real yield…

Sep 17 • The Scuttlebutt

Beach Point's high yield head: the hyperscaler bond deals are priced as if they are identical

5 arguments: Why he has avoided the AI debt entirely, what floating rate does if the Fed hikes, and the thing about private credit nobody can aggregate

Sep 16 • The Scuttlebutt

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