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Foreigners held most US Treasuries 10 years ago; now a minority — Berkeley economist
15 arguments: How the Treasury propped up the yen with euros and what reserve managers heard, why a Spanish silver coin was the first global currency…
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The Canadian Investor: the AI labs are racing to become too big to fail
15 takeaways: Why a rate hike can hand income to households, the gap between what an AI subscription costs and what it buys, and a -17% housing-starts…
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DoubleLine strategist on the Fed: "1.3 hikes are expected by the end of the year"
10 numbers: a unanimous 25bps hike with 16 of 18 officials wanting more, the 10-year's first close above 5% since 2023, and WTI back over $100
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Ex-BofA rates chief: 5.25% on the 10-year is where the AI trade breaks, not 6%
18 calls: Why he thinks Trump has to ban Chinese AI models before Anthropic's IPO, the $1.3T secondary bid against a $2T ask, and the oil trade he set…
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Kenneth Rogoff: the dollar's exorbitant privilege peaked around 2015
15 lessons: Why he thinks a debt crisis is the only thing that will force action, what Germany's bond buying cost it, and the floor he puts under…
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Naomi Fink: purchasing power parity puts a dollar at about 100 yen, a long way off
4 insights: why she says a weak yen is not a barometer of Japan's health, who actually decides on intervention, and what a genuine risk-off move would…
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Marieke Flament and Nicolas Colin: the dollar has decades left, not years
8 arguments: Why the 1970s are the template for what happens next, what actually makes a currency sticky, and the four moments that set the reset going
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Kinley Salmon: Milei cut inflation from 13% a month to 2%, and voters moved on
8 takeaways: how the improvement cut poverty by about a third, what Washington's $20B swap line bought him, and why a Trotskyite now polls better than…
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Matt Klein: an AI productivity boom would push interest rates up, not down
15 takeaways: Why underlying US productivity growth has been zero for 18 months, where the AI capex money actually flows, and China's trade surplus…
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Jim Welsh: A secular bear market is coming, but this bull has room to run first
13 takeaways: A contrarian dollar bet, a 5% 10-year Treasury target, Jay Hatfield's case for AI's circular financing, and whether Chuck himself owns an…
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RBC's FX strategists: $1.5T of Korean capex is why they won't take profit on the won
6 calls: Why they fund the won trade in Indian rupees and euros, the Czech deficit that could move the zloty, and the peso put spread struck at 16.50
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Ira Jersey: Treasury needs $10B buybacks, not $6B, to pull long-term yields down
6 calls: Why the 10-year auction graded A+ two hours after the buyback disappointed, what actually stops people buying houses, and why the yen…
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