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$20T sits in Chinese household savings and 7–10% own stocks, The David Lin Report finds
18 calls: why he credits China's import cut for oil below $120, where its Treasury holdings went, and the carmaker he doubts is still in China in 5…
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Software gets broader, semis get narrower next year, says Hedgeye portfolio manager
14 takeaways: triple-C spreads at 920 basis points, the JPMorgan commodities team that stopped forecasting oil, and the Apple package that would sell…
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"I would never ever bet against Elon": Positron co-founder on data centers in space
17 arguments: Why he calls the anti-data-center turn a Chinese psyop, what cached tokens do to AI margins, and why he trusts Oracle's credit over the…
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Ex-BofA rates chief: 5.25% on the 10-year is where the AI trade breaks, not 6%
18 calls: Why he thinks Trump has to ban Chinese AI models before Anthropic's IPO, the $1.3T secondary bid against a $2T ask, and the oil trade he set…
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Satya Nadella: tell an agent to optimize working capital and it may fake the books
10 arguments: Why he wants outside testers embedded in the labs, what he says Copilot's 30M users prove about the enterprise market, and the rural town…
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Z-Ben Advisors CEO: China is building a gold reserve asset, not a reserve currency
18 arguments: Why rare earths were "the ultimate McGuffin", why Beijing would rather the mullahs stayed, and the $10–15T of local-government debt he…
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Matt Barrie: one day of agent work is $80K on Opus or $150 on a Chinese model
17 numbers: what a 4B-token day actually costs, why he says the buildout runs on $1.65T of debt against two customers, and the 30 terawatts he…
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Nathan Labenz: a Chinese AI policy adviser told him there could be war
24 arguments: Why he says US export controls are chilling American AI safety work more than Chinese labs, what a five-year plan from 2016 shows, and the…
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Cory Doctorow: the AI industry spent $1T this year and made $50B
11 arguments: why he says free inference is being booked as marketing, the six companies losing money to Nvidia, and what firing skilled workers does to…
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Om Buddhdev: AI Labs Now Pay Coding-Data Vendors to Grade for Safety
3 takeaways: why selling training data means selling a capability, what he thinks the real AI bottleneck is, and the two-person team behind it
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Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi: hyperscalers pay 3x an electrician's wage for data centers
14 takeaways: Why 50bps of rate rises will not slow AI capex, the one hidden factor sitting inside a diversified portfolio, and the electricity…
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Jordan Schneider: the data center backlash is homegrown, and China's rockets were filled with water | TBPN
The ChinaTalk founder on cars that cost a third of the Western equivalent, what DeepSeek's leaked transcript says about Liang Wenfeng, and the compute…
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