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European Central Bank

The age pension pays a couple 62% of a comfortable retirement — Equity Mates
9 lessons: the Fed, the ECB and now the RBA all raising, the retirement assumptions that have stopped holding, and Owen Rask on when to rip the band-aid…
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Mizuho strategist: a one-and-done hike takes the 10-year to 5.25% and then 5.5%
5 predictions: Why he reads Jackson Hole as a change in the Fed's model of inflation, what the savings rate has already done, and the three-to-four…
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Justin Wolfers: labor's share of income is the smallest in recorded history
15 arguments: why he blames the AI build-out and the deficit for the global bond selloff, what the $5,000 checks would actually cost, and why the…
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Kenneth Rogoff: the dollar's exorbitant privilege peaked around 2015
15 lessons: Why he thinks a debt crisis is the only thing that will force action, what Germany's bond buying cost it, and the floor he puts under…
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Dan Orlando: the data-center build will not slow whether the Fed hikes 50bps or 100bps
7 calls: Why the curve steepener became the most challenged trade in rates, what tripling the Treasury's buyback program did not fix, and where the bond…
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Marketplace: the 9 biggest tech firms have nearly $3T of debt off the books
7 takeaways: Why central banks are all turning hawkish at once, how buy-now-pay-later balances cost one buyer a mortgage, and the record diesel price…
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Jari Stehn: Europe's financial conditions haven't tightened despite the bond selloff
8 calls: Why the math on Trump's $5,000 dividend doesn't work, how high gas could go this winter, and the number attached to a risk scenario for Brent
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Rajat Bhattacharya: tonight's ECB hike is insurance, not a pivot
3 takeaways: why Brent near $100 and euro gas near 80/MWh argue for a hike tonight, why core inflation says otherwise, and what a further 50bps would…
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RBC's Jason Daw: Canada's biggest shock was population, not tariffs - 3% to 0%
10 takeaways: Why a core CPI print rounding to 0.3 puts a September Fed hike in play, what Bessent can still do to 30-year yields, and how long Europe's…
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Adam Posen: Warsh's speech was a B-minus, and the Fed just guided itself into a hike
11 takeaways: Why he expects Fed funds 75bps to 100bps higher in 6 months, what breaks if the hike never comes, and the task force he says will surprise…
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Manpreet Gill: why Standard Chartered now expects US bond yields to fall, where it wants duration, and why gold is back to an overweight …
The dollar index forecast cut to 98 on a three-month view and 96 on twelve, financials pitched as the way to broaden an equity book, and overweights on…
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Europe's Quiet Upgrade: J.P. Morgan calls a September ECB hike a done deal, puts euro/dollar fair value nearer 110, and makes carry the…
Greg Fuzesi on Germany's deficit going from close to 2% to around 4%, the Swiss franc as Chandan's favorite funding currency, and a September Fed…
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