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Excess Returns
Franklin Templeton CEO: 87% of $100M-revenue US firms are private
7 insights: why 87% of $100M+ US companies are private, how her tokenized fund cuts the minimum to $20, and the concentration risk nobody prices
13 hrs ago
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"Everybody's loaded for bear": Rosenberg Research founder on Treasuries
15 calls: Why he says 90% of the move in 10-year yields was the real rate and not inflation, what he expects from the Nov 4 refunding, and the only two…
18 hrs ago
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London Business School professor: the 100 Best Companies list still beats peers
13 insights: The 582% move from putting AI in a sneaker brand's name, why published strategies keep two-thirds of their alpha, and the three edges he…
Sep 16
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Jim Paulsen: a 20%+ bear market in tech, without one in the S&P 500
12 arguments: The job-market misery index that has only been this high in recessions, why he sees 4% on the 10-year before 5%, and the wall of worry he…
Sep 15
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Janus Henderson: The standard bond index is 50% Treasuries and shouldn't be
8 takeaways: why the aggregate bond index would lose money on a 1% rate move, the $1.4 trillion CLO market with zero defaults in 30 years, and the four…
Sep 11
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Brent Kochuba: implied do not care, and the market just wants an excuse to rally | Last Call
Why the cheapest options in 90 days and a 7% implied vol on Monday point to a market drifting higher into September, and what Nvidia's options map says…
Aug 31
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Ben Hunt: the Fed-credibility narrative has gone supernova, and gold is one divided by trust | Last Call
Why a single 25-basis-point hike would have bought Warsh the market's belief, what three now cannot, and the four problems the Fed and Treasury have to…
Aug 31
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Aahan Menon: 70 to 80% of PCE components are above the Fed's target, and the recent cooling is all supply | Last Call
Why demand-driven inflation is slow and sticky while supply shocks mean-revert, and the one-rule Treasury model Prometheus Research published when oil…
Aug 31
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Kevin Muir: nobody is pricing the midterms, and he is buying his volatility insurance today | Last Call
Why September seasonality and all-time-low implied correlation argue for owning volatility, plus the hosts on Warsh ending forward guidance and…
Aug 31
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Kevin Muir: the AI bubble is in earnings rather than multiples, leveraged ETFs are the next portfolio insurance, and the trade numbers say…
Why he is surprised long-end yields have not risen further, what Bessent's buybacks and a near-trillion-dollar Treasury account do to the debt, and why…
Aug 30
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Dan Rasmussen: why private equity's software bet is unwinding, why he'd rather hold the debt than the equity, and why Japan is 1960s value…
The Verdad founder on the mindset he thinks is driving AI capex, why AI has not cost jobs yet, how he screens biotech with no tangible assets, and what…
Aug 29
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