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Inflation

Former Fed governor: the credibility argument amounts to people posting mean tweets
5 arguments: Why core CPI has round-tripped to pre-pandemic levels, what the term premium says about the bond selloff, and the part of the economy that…
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Morgan Stanley's Europe equity chief: the 10-year discount to the US broke out in January
5 calls: Why she thinks the gap keeps closing to single digits, what 19% earnings growth in Europe is built on, and how much of the index is AI capital…
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Mizuho strategist: a one-and-done hike takes the 10-year to 5.25% and then 5.5%
5 predictions: Why he reads Jackson Hole as a change in the Fed's model of inflation, what the savings rate has already done, and the three-to-four…
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Apollo's chief economist: the global savings glut has become a savings shortage
10 takeaways: Why he says AI will not take jobs while business creation is at a record, the 4 hikes the market now prices, and the reason value beats…
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BlackRock's fixed income CIO: the Fed will hike, and it will not touch inflation
9 calls: What 100bps of rate rises costs the US government, the 7.2% he is getting inside three years, and why he now grades equities a B minus
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BNP Paribas strategist: 5% is not the ceiling on the 10-year, and 3 hikes won't do it
6 predictions: Why the economy has stopped responding to rates, what the Fed has to prove to the bond market, and the late-1990s hiking cycle he…
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Edward Jones strategist: AI capex goes from $800B this year to over $1.1T next
14 insights: Why a 25bp hike is 62% priced, what a 10-year above 5% would do to valuations, and the research that says buying at all-time highs beats…
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Justin Wolfers: labor's share of income is the smallest in recorded history
15 arguments: why he blames the AI build-out and the deficit for the global bond selloff, what the $5,000 checks would actually cost, and why the…
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Subadra Rajappa: the Fed has to deliver the 25bp hike the market has priced
5 calls: Why Societe Generale sees three hikes running into March, what a skipped one does to inflation expectations, and the 5.25% bear case for yields
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Jim Paulsen: a 20%+ bear market in tech, without one in the S&P 500
12 arguments: The job-market misery index that has only been this high in recessions, why he sees 4% on the 10-year before 5%, and the wall of worry he…
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Naomi Fink: purchasing power parity puts a dollar at about 100 yen, a long way off
4 insights: why she says a weak yen is not a barometer of Japan's health, who actually decides on intervention, and what a genuine risk-off move would…
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Lori Calvasina: equities can take three hikes, six and a 5.5% 10-year does damage
5 predictions: the haircut RBC now takes off consensus earnings, the level on the 10-year where the damage starts, and why she is watching small caps…
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