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Private credit
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Beach Point's high yield head: the hyperscaler bond deals are priced as if they are identical
5 arguments: Why he has avoided the AI debt entirely, what floating rate does if the Fed hikes, and the thing about private credit nobody can aggregate
Sep 16
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Apollo's chief economist: the global savings glut has become a savings shortage
10 takeaways: Why he says AI will not take jobs while business creation is at a record, the 4 hikes the market now prices, and the reason value beats…
Sep 16
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The Scuttlebutt
BlackRock's fixed income CIO: the Fed will hike, and it will not touch inflation
9 calls: What 100bps of rate rises costs the US government, the 7.2% he is getting inside three years, and why he now grades equities a B minus
Sep 16
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Carlyle CEO: the crowding out from AI spending should be expected, not feared
7 insights: What 750,000 employees across its portfolio say about the economy, why it returned $37B in 12 months, and the buyback he is running while…
Sep 16
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The Scuttlebutt
Franklin Templeton strategist: the modeling says 20–30% in alternatives, not 5–6%
6 insights: Why he says the private-credit redemption fights are self-inflicted, what the SpaceX listing reset for everyone else, and the allocation…
Sep 16
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David Morehead: Baylor has 2.5% of its endowment in Anthropic and nothing in SpaceX
19 principles: Why a 15x venture fund over 18 years loses to 3x growth equity done three times, what Baylor paid up for in the software crash, and the…
Sep 15
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James McIntyre: Australia's developer collapse is a private credit problem
5 takeaways: Why floating-rate mortgages make Australia the fastest transmission of rate rises, what a 30 June valuation now misses, and why this will…
Sep 15
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Andrew Kotliar: the Yankees deal is underwritten as cash flows, not as a sports bet
13 insights: Why his firm lends against player transfer receivables, what makes a creator's catalog financeable, and the sports asset he says nobody is…
Sep 15
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Todd Barlow: Soul Patts is holding just shy of $3B in cash, about 20% of the portfolio
13 principles: why permanent capital lets him ignore the index, where he thinks US private credit has loosened, and the AI exposure he calls a no regret…
Sep 15
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Matt Barrie: one day of agent work is $80K on Opus or $150 on a Chinese model
17 numbers: what a 4B-token day actually costs, why he says the buildout runs on $1.65T of debt against two customers, and the 30 terawatts he…
Sep 12
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The Scuttlebutt
Alberto Gallo: Andromeda is short the managers, the insurers and the data centers
9 takeaways: why he thinks hyperscalers need to double their revenue to break even, the Jenga tower private credit sits on top of, and the iceberg he…
Sep 11
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The Scuttlebutt
William Cohan: Leon Black paid Jeffrey Epstein $158M for advice no one can explain
8 takeaways: Why he thinks Apollo's three founders were always going to fall apart, what Epstein actually did for his fee, and how Mark Rowan quietly…
Sep 11
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The Scuttlebutt
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