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Treasuries

"Inflation is here to stay": former US Congressman on why spending won't be cut
12 arguments: why he says a real spending cut would bring riots, what he expects gold and bond yields to do when the dollar is dumped, and why he would…
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"That's an asinine reason to hike": Futures Edge on Wednesday's Fed decision
12 calls: Why a 93.5% hike probability may still not bind the Fed, the crude spike that priced a 4M-barrel shortfall, and the gold level one host says…
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$20T sits in Chinese household savings and 7–10% own stocks, The David Lin Report finds
18 calls: why he credits China's import cut for oil below $120, where its Treasury holdings went, and the carmaker he doubts is still in China in 5…
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Damped Spring CIO on bonds: "nobody wants to own real Treasuries at 3% yield"
16 arguments: Why he says inflation only falls when asset prices do, what the Fed can and cannot do to 10-year yields, and why Japan is finally…
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The Canadian Investor: the AI labs are racing to become too big to fail
15 takeaways: Why a rate hike can hand income to households, the gap between what an AI subscription costs and what it buys, and a -17% housing-starts…
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BNY Wealth CIO: missing the 10 best days of the year costs 5% a year for 20 years
8 takeaways: Why she says no central bank can get inflation back to 2%, where BNY is underweight bonds, and her case for a math major in the age of AI
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DoubleLine strategist on the Fed: "1.3 hikes are expected by the end of the year"
10 numbers: a unanimous 25bps hike with 16 of 18 officials wanting more, the 10-year's first close above 5% since 2023, and WTI back over $100
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"$2 billion is a drop in the bucket": Trajan Wealth CIO on Treasury buybacks
15 takeaways: why insurers swapped 30-year Treasuries for floating-rate private credit, where he buys bonds instead, and why he says the selloff in…
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5% Treasuries leave a 7% pension target needing 2% from stocks, Thoughtful Money finds
13 takeaways: why he says the data gave the Fed no reason to hike, where he puts fair value on the 10-year, and the secular bear market he dates to the…
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Risk and Return: shorts in the belly of the Treasury curve are up about half a billion
14 takeaways: Why the shipping long has become crowded, what broke the oil reversal trade, and the four Treasury ETFs that called the steepener before…
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"I said the 10-year note is the risk asset": Macro Risk Advisors CEO on hedging
12 insights: A 40-point gap between single-stock and index volatility, $860B of new federal debt in 4 months, and the hedge he wants left on until…
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150bps of repricing explains the whole 10-year move, Tradition's macro advisor finds
6 arguments: Why 7 months of repricing did it, why he says the term premium never rose, where he puts the 10-year a year out, and why a 3% real yield…
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