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Foreigners held most US Treasuries 10 years ago; now a minority — Berkeley economist
15 arguments: How the Treasury propped up the yen with euros and what reserve managers heard, why a Spanish silver coin was the first global currency…
3 hrs ago
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The Scuttlebutt
"We're moving the 8,400 for the S&P 500": Yardeni Research on turning cautious
14 calls: Why he thinks the unwinding yen carry trade pushed global bond yields up, the $110T held by over-65 households, and the Treasury bazooka he…
3 hrs ago
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The Scuttlebutt
StoneX macro director: after 5 years as a bond bear, he's finally seeing value in bonds
5 calls: why he expects a "dovish hike" instead of the cuts the market spent years pricing, why he's bullish the yen after a 50% collapse, and the UK…
23 hrs ago
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The Scuttlebutt
Big Short investor: Bessent's "I am the house" is a tell, not a threat
5 arguments: why Japan can sell $1.2T of US Treasuries to defend the yen, what a card-counter's answer to "I am the house" is, and why central banks are…
23 hrs ago
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The Scuttlebutt
Mizuho strategist: a one-and-done hike takes the 10-year to 5.25% and then 5.5%
5 predictions: Why he reads Jackson Hole as a change in the Fed's model of inflation, what the savings rate has already done, and the three-to-four…
Sep 16
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The Scuttlebutt
Dan Orlando: the data-center build will not slow whether the Fed hikes 50bps or 100bps
7 calls: Why the curve steepener became the most challenged trade in rates, what tripling the Treasury's buyback program did not fix, and where the bond…
Sep 15
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1
Naomi Fink: purchasing power parity puts a dollar at about 100 yen, a long way off
4 insights: why she says a weak yen is not a barometer of Japan's health, who actually decides on intervention, and what a genuine risk-off move would…
Sep 15
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The Scuttlebutt
James McIntyre: Australia's developer collapse is a private credit problem
5 takeaways: Why floating-rate mortgages make Australia the fastest transmission of rate rises, what a 30 June valuation now misses, and why this will…
Sep 15
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Marketplace: the 9 biggest tech firms have nearly $3T of debt off the books
7 takeaways: Why central banks are all turning hawkish at once, how buy-now-pay-later balances cost one buyer a mortgage, and the record diesel price…
Sep 15
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The Scuttlebutt
Alberto Gallo: Andromeda is short the managers, the insurers and the data centers
9 takeaways: why he thinks hyperscalers need to double their revenue to break even, the Jenga tower private credit sits on top of, and the iceberg he…
Sep 11
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The Scuttlebutt
Adam Coons: the Bank of Japan will have to sell US Treasuries to defend the yen
6 takeaways: Why the Treasury's plan to hold down long-term yields already faded, what oil does to food prices through fertilizer, and the case for…
Sep 2
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The Scuttlebutt
1
Scott Bessent: the blockade will bring Iran to the table, and he is not trying to move bond yields | Squawk on the Street
The Treasury secretary on why he says the US bond market is the world's best performer, what he told Stanley Druckenmiller, the signal behind the yen…
Sep 1
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