The Scuttlebutt

The Scuttlebutt

Home
Notes
Chat
Archive
About

Prediction markets

Udesh Jha: gold and silver are 15-20x the size of crypto, so Kalshi listed both
8 insights: Why a perpetual contract removes the monthly roll cost, what separates a regulated perp from an offshore one, and the single-stock filing…
 • The Scuttlebutt
Jason Robins: prediction markets taking sportsbook volume is a complete myth
4 calls: the cannibalization data he says does not exist, the four states that open up almost half the US population, and why DraftKings' stock rises…
 • The Scuttlebutt
Brian Armstrong: 88% of Coinbase's revenue is no longer Bitcoin trading
11 takeaways: Why he says AI agents need their own bank accounts, what a company "brain" does to code review, and the $20B liver drug behind his second…
 • The Scuttlebutt
Jason Robins: DraftKings' stock has trailed its own average for nearly a year
5 takeaways: Why he won't give numbers on prediction markets yet, his read on the Kalshi legal fight now at the Supreme Court, and why he calls this a…
 • The Scuttlebutt
Harshit Geddam: 1,000 subscribers at $10 a month makes a creator $10K on his app
10 takeaways: 2M of paper-trading volume from 700 users, a credibility score that ranks traders the way LinkedIn ranks careers, and the 60-70% of volume…
 • The Scuttlebutt
Rob Pizzola: prediction-market liquidity is already resetting sportsbook limits
9 takeaways: A pro NFL bettor's 4.1% expected edge, the real mechanics behind Lane Kiffin's bonus hedge, and why he isn't worried about AI closing his…
 • The Scuttlebutt
Keith Rabois: an Anthropic or OpenAI IPO miss would reset every AI valuation
12 takeaways: Why he thinks a margin miss is likelier than a revenue miss, the $30B private failure that would read like WeWork, and the pitch he says…
 • The Scuttlebutt
Peter Hamby: Hollywood's most bankable stars now average 57.8 years old
8 takeaways: The survey question that ranks who actually sells a ticket, why 3 studios are betting on Johnny Depp anyway, and the Journal's shrug at an…
 • The Scuttlebutt
Vijay Marolia: the AI spending circle holds until the cash-flow statement says otherwise | Money Life
Why he says stock issuance is the alarm rather than the spending, where he thinks the metals-market cheating went, and the fake Citi fraud call that…
 • The Scuttlebutt
Brian Quintenz: Santos was banned for life for not cooperating, and this ends at the Supreme Court | Bloomberg Talks
Why he says a bet is something you do against the house, what he thinks the Ninth Circuit got wrong about whether the Super Bowl is an event, and why a…
 • The Scuttlebutt
Ian Deacon: why FMX has barely dented CME two years in, how clearing works as a price cut nobody can match, and why the exchanges are about…
Marathon's US equities manager on the 80% margin inside ICE's exchange segment, the lawsuit CME filed against its own regulator, and why both stocks…
 • The Scuttlebutt
© 2026 The Golden Age LLC · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture