Quotes here are condensed and lightly edited for clarity. Numbers, names and speakers' own qualifications are preserved.
87% of venture capital now goes to AI, Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said on Bloomberg Surveillance. Venture used to be pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and prescription drugs, and investors held it because it did not move with the rest of the portfolio. The equity sleeve is already an AI bet, and so is the investment-grade credit sleeve, where the hyperscalers have become large borrowers.
That was ten minutes of one morning program. 67 other appearances tonight worked the same ground from other sides: Goldman Sachs's chief credit strategist counting nearly $600 billion of AI-related bonds sold this year, a Barclays internet analyst describing 10,000 agents that solved a Millennium Prize problem in 88 hours, and the Treasury Secretary answering a lab employee who put the chance of an extinction-level event at 10%.
"These labs need to take responsibility for themselves. They can slow down anytime they want to." — Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary, on Squawk Pod
We scanned 658 shows and 28 hours of audio, wrote 68 summaries, and pulled 106 quotes into this 28-minute read.
Here is what mattered.
Macro
AI capital spending is 2.5% of US GDP
"We have AI capex now at 2.5% of U.S. GDP. We see it going higher globally to 1.2 trillion next year." — Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and global head of equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, on Bloomberg Surveillance
Buy the physical economy over the digital one
"We think you should be invested in atoms over bits. So more the physical economy than the digital economy." — Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and global head of equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, on Bloomberg Surveillance
$407 of 2027 earnings gets to 8000
"So if we do bake in the full 2027 earnings growth of $407 on S&P 500 earnings, that gets us to probably close to 8000 on the S&P." — Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist for private wealth and retirement at Partners Group, on CNBC
$5.5T of revenue against $40T of debt
"So if you look at the US, I mean you have about $5.5 trillion in revenue and 40 trillion in debt that has to be serviced." — Jonathan Wellum, CEO and chief investment officer of RockLinc Investment Partners, on Wealthion
70% of the index is in a downtrend
"So, we are right now at 30% of stocks bullishly trending above their 50-day moving average. ... under the hood, 70% of stocks that make up the S&P 500 are actually right now in a downtrend." — Patrick Ceresna, founder and chief derivative market strategist at Big Picture Trading, on Rebel Capitalist Interviews
One point of growth is AI spending
"GDP normally grows at two, and now one percentage point of growth is coming because of the AI spending boom, not only on data centers and energy, but also spending on tokens ... spending on tools for consumers, spending on tools for corporates." — Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, on Bloomberg Surveillance
The diversifier is the same bet
"Now, 87% of venture capital is also AI. ... And we are waking up now in 2026, and we are basically all of us overexposed to AI, in particular in the 60-40." — Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, on Bloomberg Surveillance
Inflation is inertia, not a shock
"We think ultimately inflation in the US is driven by momentum. And so we've had now over five years of high inflation, including the big surge in inflation during the pandemic reopening. We think it's just accumulated inertia." — James Egelhof, chief US economist at BNP Paribas, on Bloomberg Surveillance
High growth carries a high rate
"If you want 90s type growth, you might have to have 90s type rates." — James Egelhof, chief US economist at BNP Paribas, on Bloomberg Surveillance
Money supply is growing 7%
"Bottom line is there's a lot of liquidity in the economy. And that helps explain, one, why economic activity is solid and getting stronger, and two, why inflation is indeed sticky. ... It's growing 7% right now. And 7% money supply growth, 7% bank loan growth, very strong government spending right now led by defense." — Nancy Lazar, chief global economist at Piper Sandler, on Bloomberg Surveillance
A 40-year record gap in the two inflation measures
"In fact, in July, the year-over-year increase in the core PCE deflator was 0.88% higher than core CPI inflation, the biggest positive gap in more than 40 years." — David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, on Notes on the Week Ahead
Over 40% of the Russell 3000 is down 20%
"More than 40 percent of the Russell 3000 has fallen at least 20 percent since June, while the S&P 500's forward price earnings multiple has fallen back to 19 times, which is almost 20 percent lower than a year ago." — Mike Wilson, CIO and chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, on Thoughts on the Market
Cheaper stocks and rising earnings is mid-cycle
"Falling valuations alongside strong earnings growth is not complacency. It is the definition of a classic mid-cycle transition." — Mike Wilson, CIO and chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, on Thoughts on the Market
The Fed wrote down its AI worry in June
"In the June meeting minutes that were released in July, you did see some of the committee members concerned that spending on AI was contributing to very strong demand and inflation here in the US and spilling over from the AI sector into other related sectors as well." — Alexis Crow, partner and chief economist at PwC, on Bloomberg Surveillance
16 of 18 dots point to another hike
"I thought you're not supposed to fight the Fed. I don't understand the bullish sentiment. ... And to me the dot plot was the telling thing because we had 16 of 18 dots that see a quarter point raise between now and the final meeting of the year." — Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, on Facts vs Feelings
Other appearances:
Vermilion Research CIO on tanker voyages stretching from 30 days to 45 on David Lin
International
No guarantees, no order to book
"We provide large-scale energy infrastructure. We have long delivery times. So without advance payment and performance guarantees, it is essentially impossible for us to book an order with a customer." — Andreas Meier, vice president for guarantees and documentary instruments at Siemens Energy, on HSBC Global Viewpoint
Berlin took two thirds of the backstop
"And we could convince the government, we could convince partner banks, a consortium of banks to actually move into this new structure with us, whereby the government took over two thirds of the backstop and banks were only burdened with one third." — Andreas Meier, vice president for guarantees and documentary instruments at Siemens Energy, on HSBC Global Viewpoint
Korea's exports say the cycle has not turned
"And South Korea is typically one of the first gauges that we get of the economic health of the cycle and despite hikes despite oil wars and what have you the economic cycle is not budging. ... And I think it is absolutely fair that Nasdaq is up a couple of percent here that semiconductors are up a couple of percent that the market is rebounding because the market is simply not positioned for this." — Andreas Steno Larsen, who runs the macro portfolio at Steno Research, on Real Vision
Buying the cheap network ends in a utility
"Like if you walk down a commoditized network route where you take the cheap option rather than the highly specialized option, you will never create highly specialized services for consumers to buy. Now it might fail, but if you don't give it a chance, you are just sleepwalking towards utilitization." — Jamie Davies, founder of The Content Store and former deputy editor of Telecoms.com, on Telecoms.com Podcast
Financials
Credit needs five hikes to break
"I think for the numbers that we've run for credit, we think that you'd need to see five hikes before credit really started to struggle." — Meghan Robson, head of US credit strategy at BNP Paribas, on Bloomberg Surveillance
Two hyperscalers sit one notch above junk
"We also have two large ones that are BBB rated. So that means they're at just right on the cusp of being between IG and potentially high yield." — Meghan Robson, head of US credit strategy at BNP Paribas, on Bloomberg Surveillance
Nearly $600B of AI debt sold this year
"We've counted nearly 600 billion of global AI-related debt issuance so far this year, and we think it's poised to accelerate even further in 2027." — Amanda Lynam, chief credit strategist at Goldman Sachs, on Bloomberg Surveillance
Hyperscalers are 40% of that issuance
"our work suggests that as sizable as those capex needs are from the hyperscalers, they represent just 40 percent of the AI-related issuance that's coming through the global corporate credit markets." — Amanda Lynam, chief credit strategist at Goldman Sachs, on Bloomberg Surveillance
$1T of capex cannot crowd out $32T
"Can private-sector financing, however large, crowd out a $32 trillion Treasury market? ... The roughly $1 trillion in hyperscaler capex expected this year consumes the same real resources whether it is funded with debt, retained earnings, or equity issuance." — Lotfi Karoui, multi-asset credit strategist at PIMCO, on PIMCO Pod
Surprise AI bond deals do not move Treasuries
"The data show surprise AI debt issuance does not produce a statistically significant increase in Treasury yields" — Lotfi Karoui, multi-asset credit strategist at PIMCO, on PIMCO Pod
Other appearances:
Robinhood CIO on customers selling Meta to buy Oracle on Bloomberg Surveillance
Alight SVP on the annuity bought at 65 that starts paying at 85 on Bloomberg Surveillance
NatWest Group premier banking MD, Sage enterprise sales lead and Barclaycard Payments product director on an 18-model test that got financial advice wrong 57% of the time on Fintech Insider
Crypto and Digital Assets
Bitcoin trades $50B a day, the FTSE 100 about £7B
"But when you look at the scale of the industry today, Bitcoin trades easily $50 billion in a day. And you compare that with the FTSE 100 where the aggregate volume of all the FTSE 100 companies is typically around £7 billion a day." — Stephen Coltman, head of macro at 21Shares, on FTSE Russell Convenes
Owning none of it is now the position to defend
"But now to not have a view to sit at a 0% allocation, that is something you actually probably do start to need to have to justify." — Russell Barlow, CEO of 21Shares, on FTSE Russell Convenes
Alternatives and PE
KKR, Carlyle, Apollo and Ares are credit shops now
"Today, those businesses are two thirds private credit." — Ted Koenig, chairman and CEO of Monroe Capital, on How I Invest with David Weisburd
Wealthy retail money arrives and leaves together
"I told the Financial Times a few weeks ago, high net worth individual investors are like fish. They all swim in a school. ... And when there's some adverse reaction, AI, let's say, or software concerns or the market blips, which it has in software, they all tend to swim out at the same time in schools." — Ted Koenig, chairman and CEO of Monroe Capital, on How I Invest with David Weisburd
The firm has been short bonds all year
"We've been short fixed income for the vast majority of this year. I don't know any individuals that are shorting bonds." — James Dailey, CEO of DUNN Capital Management, on Michael Covel's Trend Following
About 1% of Americans own any private assets
"Only about 1% of Americans have any exposure to privates because most people aren't accredited. Even if you are accredited, you have to be invited into rounds. You have to be invited into funds. You have to have hundreds if not tens of thousands of dollars to invest." — Sarah Pinto, head of Robinhood Ventures and president of Robinhood Ventures Fund 2, on Origins
Other appearances:
iConnections CEO on the $10B to $20B a year that moves through its meetings on TBPN
Consumer
A pesticide report cost 30% of sales in a week
"For absolute clarity, our sales went down 30% week over week." — Brian Rudolph, co-founder of Banza, on How I Built This
His own test came back 98% lower
"And what we published was ultimately 98% lower than what was claimed." — Brian Rudolph, co-founder of Banza, on How I Built This
82% of new agents quit inside two years
"82% of all newly licensed agents in the United States quit in the first two years. They try it and they bail because it's too hard. There's no salary. There are no benefits." — Ryan Serhant, founder and CEO of SERHANT, on Talks at GS
The shortage is supply, not demand
"We don't have a housing crisis. We have a housing supply issue." — Ryan Serhant, founder and CEO of SERHANT, on Talks at GS
AOL at 4 times earnings, now 16
"They bought AOL for roughly 4 times EBITDA, and now they're trading at like 16 times EBITDA, and that's like 6 months later." — Blake Saunders, founder and managing director of Core Advisors, on Run the Numbers
Readers have never paid what the product costs
"one of the fallacies in media, and this goes back to newspapers, is like consumers have actually never paid the full cost of the product" — Blake Saunders, founder and managing director of Core Advisors, on Run the Numbers
Retailers have stopped closing stores
"Shutting stores, for the most part, you're pretty much done on shutting stores. ... When you look at commercial real estate, you're seeing some of the biggest returns lately on malls." — Dana Telsey, CEO and chief research officer of Telsey Advisory Group, on Bloomberg Surveillance
Luxury is weak in Europe, not here
"Number one, Europe consumer is very challenged lately. You're not getting tourists and you're not getting the Chinese traveling. More Chinese are spending on some of their own local brands." — Dana Telsey, CEO and chief research officer of Telsey Advisory Group, on Bloomberg Surveillance
$80B of debt at 6.5 times earnings
"we're looking at about $80 billion of debt. It's going to be about six and a half times levered. So it's really, really going to come down, as you just pointed out, to execution about getting those synergies and trying to drive this to three times leverage within a few years after closing. That's a tall order." — Geetha Ranganathan, media analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, on Bloomberg Intelligence
70% of earnings is still shrinking TV
"70% of EBITDA will still be from the secularly challenged TV businesses." — Geetha Ranganathan, media analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, on Bloomberg Intelligence
Best box office since 2019, on fewer tickets
"Top line, it's the highest grossing year since before the pandemic, since 2019. ... I think where people counter that is that if you look just in terms of ticket sales, ticket sales are still down a lot. The reason that grosses are stronger is in part because going to the movies is just more expensive." — Lucas Shaw, entertainment reporter at Bloomberg, on TBPN
What YouTube is actually protecting
"And like, we're here to just empower creators. And it's like, we're here to empower creators that maintain our monopoly on human attention." — Lucas Shaw, entertainment reporter at Bloomberg, on TBPN
Other appearances:
Odyssey Functional Energy CEO on more than $30M of capital and 50,000 points of distribution on Founder's Story
Sports
The sponsorship slowdown is a calendar
"This year, what you're seen is 2 and 8% respectively in the first two quarters because we have so many international events this first half of the year, which don't allow us to sell as much as many global partnerships as we otherwise would, but it's backloaded. ... we will finish over 20% year-over-year increase on WWE partnership revenue for the year" — Mark Shapiro, president and COO of TKO Group Holdings, on CNBC
Every game free over the air, for the first time in 30 years
"First time in 30 years that we've delivered every single game for free over the air in the state of Wisconsin. So everyone who lives in Wisconsin will have access to every Milwaukee Bucks game this season, which we're incredibly excited about." — Josh Glessing, president of the Milwaukee Bucks, on Bloomberg Talks
The club now carries the advertising risk
"We are in the ad sales business in a way that we haven't been before. ... They pay us a rights fee and they go out and they make the economics work on the other side of it. And obviously for Main Street, that didn't happen." — Josh Glessing, president of the Milwaukee Bucks, on Bloomberg Talks
Technology & AI
More agents make the system of record worth more
"And actually, the more agents that you have running on these systems, in fact, the more important the backbone becomes. Like everybody always sort of made this claim that once you have all these agents, then actually all they really need is a database underneath. But the problem is that database has to be coordinated against possibly thousands of end users and then possibly tens of thousands of agents." — Aaron Levie, co-founder and CEO of Box, on TBPN
Box says that is why its own growth turned
"For us, we have re-accelerated growth far past our internal plans because it turns out that enterprises need core systems to be able to manage their unstructured data." — Aaron Levie, co-founder and CEO of Box, on TBPN
Google alone crosses 3.2 quadrillion tokens a month
"Per month they cross 3.2 quadrillion tokens. ... So every time you try something on ChatGPT 50% of that cost is energy." — Naveen Rao, co-founder and CEO of Unconventional AI, on All-In
He puts the energy ceiling about 3 years out
"So, we're going to run out of energy pretty fast in like 3 years or so is my estimate." — Naveen Rao, co-founder and CEO of Unconventional AI, on All-In
90% of enterprise work runs on cheap models
"for enterprise work my prediction is that 90% of the of the flow will go to very costefficient models I don't think you need frontier level quality of models for most operational work" — Daniel Dines, founder and CEO of UiPath, on 20VC
Agents got no easier; automation got much easier
"Deploying AI agents is not getting easier today than it was two years ago in my opinion. But deploying automation has become much easier because I can create these automations with AI with coding agents." — Daniel Dines, founder and CEO of UiPath, on 20VC
Call it a benchmark and the model will do it
"An example is if you want your agent to do something that is nefarious, the easiest way to get it to do it is to tell it's doing a benchmark or an eval." — Harper Reed, founder and CEO of 2389 Research, on Hidden Forces
A runaway model needs a $500,000 computer
"to run that effectively you need a $500,000 computer that's not going to go unnoticed" — Harper Reed, founder and CEO of 2389 Research, on Hidden Forces
The harm he wants counted is the one already here
"But my immediate short-term concerns are really for the actual harms that these models are producing today about the dumpster fire of technology in our infrastructure in our utilities in our school systems in our airports that is going to break because of this." — John Borthwick, founder and CEO of Betaworks, on Hidden Forces
Half of consumers hand an agent power of attorney by 2030
"Now, in four years, will that start to happen? I suspect 40% or 50% of people will give a power of attorney to the agent by 2030 because they've had enough interaction and developed enough trust." — Vinod Khosla, founder of Khosla Ventures, on TBPN
Trust is the moat, and Meta does not have it
"I believe the moat will be trust. In a company that develops trust with consumers, and that's where META has a huge disadvantage. So the trust will be the moat." — Vinod Khosla, founder of Khosla Ventures, on TBPN
Two customers are 70% of hyperscaler AI revenue
"Where it starts to get squishy is something like 70% of AI revenue of the hyperscalers is just from OpenAI and Anthropic and that's about 25 to 35% of their entire cloud revenue." — George Noble, former portfolio manager at Fidelity and now a newsletter writer, on The Real Eisman Playbook
The forecast was right and the stocks still went to zero
"Internet traffic compounded at 43% a year for the next 25 years. It went up by like 25 million%. Some crazy number, right? Didn't stop Global Crossing and all the rest of them from going bankrupt." — George Noble, former portfolio manager at Fidelity and now a newsletter writer, on The Real Eisman Playbook
Anthropic went from $9B to $65B in six months
"Its revenue run rate has gone from $9 billion in December to $65 billion in six months." — Cathie Wood, co-founder and CEO of ARK Invest, on Equity Mates Investing Podcast
One knowledge worker's tool bill is $4,000 a month
"I'll tell you, our chief futurist, Brett Winton, I think he's using $4,000 a month, not $20 a month, $4,000 a month." — Cathie Wood, co-founder and CEO of ARK Invest, on Equity Mates Investing Podcast
A misaligned model is a bug
"What it means is there was a bug in the software. The software did not do what we thought it would do." — Steven Sinofsky, board partner at Andreessen Horowitz, on a16z
The pause he wants is a quarter of instrumentation
"So when you talk about an AI pause, of course they should slow down. They should stop adding things and go and add the telemetry, the tools, the logging, the step-by-step debugging, all of the stuff that you would add if your software did anything at all important and you cared if it did it right." — Steven Sinofsky, board partner at Andreessen Horowitz, on a16z
Amazon is defending a $76B ad business
"So they've done 76 billion in the last 12 months through Q2 of 2026." — John Coogan and Jordi Hays, hosts of TBPN, on TBPN
Challengers open their weights, incumbents close them
"So in general, if you are a challenger that needs an ecosystem, you want to open up. We saw this with the early meta stuff. And then if you're an incumbent and you have distribution, you want to close down." — John Coogan and Jordi Hays, hosts of TBPN, on TBPN
10,000 agents, 88 hours, one Millennium Prize problem
"they put the swarm that we were talking about before, 10,000 concurrent agents working on this math problem. They put them on that for 88 hours, so about three and a half days." — Ross Sandler, senior internet analyst at Barclays, on Barclays Brief
AI lab revenue doubles inside the year
"I think we crossed the 100 billion mark sometime in the first half of this year for AI lab ARR. We're going to end the year probably close to a little over 200 billion of ARR. So, the revenue seems to be up and to the right." — Ross Sandler, senior internet analyst at Barclays, on Barclays Brief
An AI event with no new AI in it
"Apple held a major product launch event in September of the year 2026 and did not introduce a single notable new AI feature." — Mark Gurman, chief Apple correspondent at Bloomberg, on Decoder
No sign Apple is building its own model again
"I've seen absolutely zero evidence that they're actually working on that plan A again." — Mark Gurman, chief Apple correspondent at Bloomberg, on Decoder
Other appearances:
Raindrop co-founder on why nobody at the application layer expects catastrophe on TBPN
Aivre CEO on the appraisal report that AI drafts and a human signs on Market Moves
VC & Startups
China spends hundreds of millions on weather
"So they're spending hundreds of millions of dollars a year on their weather modification program because they understand that water and the weather is a strategic capability and resource." — Augustus Doricko, founder and CEO of Rainmaker, on TBPN
Results, not pitching, brought the customers
"It's only because of the recent results that we had in Alaska, in Oregon, Idaho, Utah, where we're making hundreds of millions of gallons of new water that they've taken an interest." — Augustus Doricko, founder and CEO of Rainmaker, on TBPN
78.4% of one platform's tokens go to open models
"78.4% of the tokens are going to open" — Lon Harris, editorial director of This Week in Startups, on This Week in Startups
Open-source usage shows up in nobody's revenue
"The open-source tokens are dark tokens. You can't see them. That doesn't mean they don't exist." — Jason Calacanis, investor and founder of This Week in Startups, on This Week in Startups
He has open source taking 90% of tokens
"I believe open source is going to win the day on the large language models and take 90% of the token usage and I think the entire frontier model space could be undercut by open source" — Jason Calacanis, investor and founder of This Week in Startups, on This Week in Startups
Other appearances:
Decagon CEO on reaching product-market fit at six customers and $1M of revenue on Grit
Industrials and Transport
A couple of hundred driverless trucks by year end
"So we've got the hardware and the software in place. We've got the customers. By the end of the year, we expect to have a couple of hundred of these on the road, and next year we'll be 1000 plus." — Chris Urmson, CEO of Aurora Innovation, on CNBC
92% of fleets run fewer than 5 trucks
"92% of the fleets on the road have less than five trucks. Very difficult for them to be able to scale. So I believe that there's an opportunity that you could really see consolidation in this industry, and I believe that we'll actually have more drivers at the end after we deploy autonomous trucks than what we have today." — Jim Filter, CEO of Schneider National, on CNBC
The spraying system cuts chemical use about 60%
"through our technology, where we can do intelligent spraying and save the chemicals, save about 60% of the chemical for the farmer." — Eric Hansotia, chairman and CEO of AGCO, on CNBC
It sells upgrades for rivals' machines too
"And we do that not only for our brand of equipment, but for all the farmers in the market, no matter what they've bought. So we'll put new technology upgrades onto competitor's machines to give that new capability." — Eric Hansotia, chairman and CEO of AGCO, on CNBC
GE paid 26 times earnings for a castings business
"You know GE paid a very healthy multiple without synergy suggested. It was 26 times EBITDA." — Meghan Welch, managing director in aerospace, defense and government services at Brown Gibbons Lang & Company, on Market Matters
The primes cannot buy back stock, so they buy companies
"these defense primes and tier ones are trading at record valuations in the public market. They have record amount of cash on their balance sheet and they can no longer do share buybacks." — Meghan Welch, managing director in aerospace, defense and government services at Brown Gibbons Lang & Company, on Market Matters
Materials & Energy
The utilities are spending $1.4T in five years
"My colleagues and I are collectively investing something like $1.4 trillion over the next five years." — Pedro Pizarro, CEO of Edison International, on CNBC
Edison sits at the bottom of investment grade
"So today, Southern California Edison and EIX are at the lowest possible investment grade credit ratings. Fitch last week just changed our outlook to negative." — Pedro Pizarro, CEO of Edison International, on CNBC
The reserve is down to 285M barrels
"The US strategic petroleum reserve is down to 285 million barrels. That is about the level or maybe even below the level where some people have forecast that you can't safely pump anymore" — John Love, president and CEO of United States Commodity Funds, on ETF Spotlight
A new copper mine takes 15 to 20 years
"The world's discovery of new copper is at just a fraction of what it was the rate that it was several decades ago. ... if they somehow found a new green what they call a green field tomorrow it takes 15 to 20 years to open a new mine." — John Love, president and CEO of United States Commodity Funds, on ETF Spotlight
Rapidan puts a diesel export ban at 35%
"Right, Anne-Marie. Well, Rapidan has had a 35 percent probability on export restrictions since April. ... But I don't know of an economist inside the administration, outside the administration, who thinks it would be a good idea." — Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, on Bloomberg Surveillance
Ban the exports and refiners cut runs
"Well, I think if diesel exports are banned, refiners will drop runs. They export about 25% of their diesel output. That'll all go away, and they will drop runs." — Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, on Bloomberg Surveillance
He has crude at $150 and diesel near $8 by year end
"Yeah, I think by the end of the year crude oil price will be around 150. Diesel prices in America between $8 and $9 a gallon and gasoline prices around $6.50." — Simon Hunt, founder of Simon Hunt Strategic Services, on WTFinance
Copper is already in surplus, on his numbers
"The markets already in the first half of this year globally are in surplus despite what the pundits are saying. Those are the real statistics issued by the International Copper Study Group." — Simon Hunt, founder of Simon Hunt Strategic Services, on WTFinance
A gas turbine ordered today arrives in 2031
"Order books at a lot of the large manufacturers are full. And a gas turbine ordered today, we don't see coming online by 2031 at the earliest. So it's about five to six years to secure new capacity." — Henry Eaton, US natural gas market analyst at BloombergNEF, on Bloomberg Intelligence
Much of the data-center pipeline is an announcement
"a lot of the data centers that we're looking at are fairly speculative. Meaning that they're just announcements rather than committed facilities." — Henry Eaton, US natural gas market analyst at BloombergNEF, on Bloomberg Intelligence
Policy
No liability shield for the labs
"So imagine these labs came out or one lab in specific a sitting employee came out said there's a 10% chance of an extinction level event but then the labs also said take the liability off of our hands and we will not do that." — Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary, on Squawk Pod
Oil and the long bond are moving together
"one thing I would point out, Joe, is that we have one of the highest correlations ever between 10 and 30-year bonds and crude oil price and the crack spread." — Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary, on Squawk Pod
Imports from China are back to 2003 levels
"So in some instances, so to your point, our trade deficit with China has gone down by a third. The last time we imported this little from China was 2003." — Jamieson Greer, US Trade Representative, on Bloomberg Talks
The Canada measures cover 0.06% of US consumption
"So we've taken measures covering about 5% of Canadian goods. Not that big a deal, frankly. It accounts for about 0.06% of U.S. Consumption." — Jamieson Greer, US Trade Representative, on Bloomberg Talks
A 90-day export ban to push diesel down
"Putting in place a 90 day export ban certainly would create a supply of diesel in the country, which would cause diesel prices to fall." — Jeff Landry, governor of Louisiana, on CNBC
Golf courses use 40 times the water of data centers
"Nothing against golfers out there, but golf courses use 40 times more water than data centers in Louisiana." — Jeff Landry, governor of Louisiana, on CNBC
A reactor is allowed 1 failure in 10M years
"What probability of human extinction would you be willing to accept? Well, you know, we accept a risk of about 1 in 10 million per year for a nuclear plant to melt down." — Stuart Russell, professor of electrical engineering and computer sciences at UC Berkeley, on Squawk Pod
The developers are the ones quoting 10% to 20%
"But what are they actually telling the government? They're saying there's a good chance 10% 20%. That we are going to kill everyone on Earth." — Stuart Russell, professor of electrical engineering and computer sciences at UC Berkeley, on Squawk Pod
Geopolitics
Latvia's defense output has tripled
"And we see it because the foreign ministry issues the strategic goods licenses, so we can see very clearly it has tripled. It has tripled what we produce." — Baiba Braze, minister of foreign affairs of Latvia, on Bloomberg Surveillance
An open war is the one thing Moscow cannot afford
"So it's not the open war with NATO. Russia cannot allow itself because the wars, as we see in Ukraine, the three-day war in its fifth year, the wars are unpredictable, and Russia doesn't have that capacity and capability currently." — Baiba Braze, minister of foreign affairs of Latvia, on Bloomberg Surveillance
Europe could beat Russia, given the time to rearm
"If Poland and Germany rearm properly, and if France extends its nuclear umbrella, and if my country, the UK, gets back to proper defense spending, and a bit more of a bullish attitude in the world, we could roll Russia in a conventional war. I don't worry about that at all. ... I think the problem is the window, because it takes time to rearm" — Edward Price, non-resident senior fellow at NYU, on Bloomberg Intelligence
Nuggets of Wisdom
87% of the decade's 10x stocks began as micro caps
"Well, 87% originated out of the micro cap ecosystem, which was an incredibly large number. And what was also interesting that I like to highlight is that 91% of those 87% were profitable businesses. They weren't story stocks. They had fundamentals to them, and that's globally across the globe." — Ian Cassel, founder of MicroCapClub and CIO of Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management, on Talking Billions
Only 18% of micro caps make money
"It's about 18% of micro caps that exist are profitable." — Ian Cassel, founder of MicroCapClub and CIO of Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management, on Talking Billions
200 names a year instead of 20
"Instead of me doing research on 20 stocks per year, I'll do research on 200 stocks. I'm not going to necessarily going to make more money, it's just that my focus has shifted a bit." — Michael Fritzell, founder of Asian Century Stocks, on MicroCapClub
What keeps an Asian small cap cheap
"The issue with stocks in Asia in particular is capital allocation. Almost always." — Michael Fritzell, founder of Asian Century Stocks, on MicroCapClub
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